Deep Dynamic Epidemiological Modelling for COVID-19 Forecasting in Multi-level Districts

Objective: COVID-19 has spread worldwide and made a huge influence across the world. Modeling the infectious spread situation of COVID-19 is essential to understand the current condition and to formulate intervention measurements. Epidemiological equations based on the SEIR model simulate disease development. The traditional parameter estimation method to solve SEIR equations could not precisely fit real-world data due to different situations, such as social distancing policies and intervention strategies. Additionally, learning-based models achieve outstanding fitting performance, but cannot visualize mechanisms. Methods: Thus, we propose a deep dynamic epidemiological (DDE) method that combines epidemiological equations and deep-learning advantages to obtain high accuracy and visualization. The DDE contains deep networks to fit the effect function to simulate the ever-changing situations based on the neural ODE method in solving variants' equations, ensuring the fitting performance of multi-level areas. Results: We introduce four SEIR variants to fit different situations in different countries and regions. We compare our DDE method with traditional parameter estimation methods (Nelder-Mead, BFGS, Powell, Truncated Newton Conjugate-Gradient, Neural ODE) in fitting the real-world data in the cases of countries (the USA, Columbia, South Africa) and regions (Wuhan in China, Piedmont in Italy). Our DDE method achieves the best Mean Square Error and Pearson coefficient in all five areas. Further, compared with the state-of-art learning-based approaches, the DDE outperforms all techniques, including LSTM, RNN, GRU, Random Forest, Extremely Random Trees, and Decision Tree. Conclusion: DDE presents outstanding predictive ability and visualized display of the changes in infection rates in different regions and countries.

DRAC: Diabetic Retinopathy Analysis Challenge with Ultra-Wide Optical Coherence Tomography Angiography Images

Computer-assisted automatic analysis of diabetic retinopathy (DR) is of great importance in reducing the risks of vision loss and even blindness. Ultra-wide optical coherence tomography angiography (UW-OCTA) is a non-invasive and safe imaging modality in DR diagnosis system, but there is a lack of publicly available benchmarks for model development and evaluation. To promote further research and scientific benchmarking for diabetic retinopathy analysis using UW-OCTA images, we organized a challenge named "DRAC - Diabetic Retinopathy Analysis Challenge" in conjunction with the 25th International Conference on Medical Image Computing and Computer Assisted Intervention (MICCAI 2022). The challenge consists of three tasks: segmentation of DR lesions, image quality assessment and DR grading. The scientific community responded positively to the challenge, with 11, 12, and 13 teams from geographically diverse institutes submitting different solutions in these three tasks, respectively. This paper presents a summary and analysis of the top-performing solutions and results for each task of the challenge. The obtained results from top algorithms indicate the importance of data augmentation, model architecture and ensemble of networks in improving the performance of deep learning models. These findings have the potential to enable new developments in diabetic retinopathy analysis. The challenge remains open for post-challenge registrations and submissions for benchmarking future methodology developments.