The Economics of Recommender Systems: Evidence from a Field Experiment on MovieLens

We conduct a field experiment on a movie-recommendation platform to identify if and how recommendations affect consumption. We use within-consumer randomization at the good level and elicit beliefs about unconsumed goods to disentangle exposure from informational effects. We find recommendations increase consumption beyond its role in exposing goods to consumers. We provide support for an informational mechanism: recommendations affect consumers' beliefs, which in turn explain consumption. Recommendations reduce uncertainty about goods consumers are most uncertain about and induce information acquisition. Our results highlight the importance of recommender systems' informational role when considering policies targeting these systems in online marketplaces.

Competing Bandits: The Perils of Exploration Under Competition

Most online platforms strive to learn from interactions with consumers, and many engage in exploration: making potentially suboptimal choices for the sake of acquiring new information. We initiate a study of the interplay between exploration and competition: how such platforms balance the exploration for learning and the competition for consumers. Here consumers play three distinct roles: they are customers that generate revenue, they are sources of data for learning, and they are self-interested agents which choose among the competing platforms. We consider a stylized duopoly model in which two firms face the same multi-armed bandit instance. Users arrive one by one and choose between the two firms, so that each firm makes progress on its bandit instance only if it is chosen. We study whether and to what extent competition incentivizes the adoption of better bandit algorithms, and whether it leads to welfare increases for consumers. We find that stark competition induces firms to commit to a "greedy" bandit algorithm that leads to low consumer welfare. However, we find that weakening competition by providing firms with some "free" consumers incentivizes better exploration strategies and increases consumer welfare. We investigate two channels for weakening the competition: relaxing the rationality of consumers and giving one firm a first-mover advantage. We provide a mix of theoretical results and numerical simulations. Our findings are closely related to the "competition vs. innovation" relationship, a well-studied theme in economics. They also elucidate the first-mover advantage in the digital economy by exploring the role that data can play as a barrier to entry in online markets.

Competing Bandits: The Perils of Exploration under Competition

We empirically study the interplay between exploration and competition. Systems that learn from interactions with users often engage in exploration: making potentially suboptimal decisions in order to acquire new information for future decisions. However, when multiple systems are competing for the same market of users, exploration may hurt a system's reputation in the near term, with adverse competitive effects. In particular, a system may enter a "death spiral", when the short-term reputation cost decreases the number of users for the system to learn from, which degrades its performance relative to competition and further decreases its market share. We ask whether better exploration algorithms are incentivized under competition. We run extensive numerical experiments in a stylized duopoly model in which two firms deploy multi-armed bandit algorithms and compete for myopic users. We find that duopoly and monopoly tend to favor a primitive "greedy algorithm" that does not explore and leads to low consumer welfare, whereas a temporary monopoly (a duopoly with an early entrant) may incentivize better bandit algorithms and lead to higher consumer welfare. Our findings shed light on the first-mover advantage in the digital economy by exploring the role that data can play as a barrier to entry in online markets.