FORGE:Fine-grained Multimodal Evaluation for Manufacturing Scenarios

The manufacturing sector is increasingly adopting Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to transition from simple perception to autonomous execution, yet current evaluations fail to reflect the rigorous demands of real-world manufacturing environments. Progress is hindered by data scarcity and a lack of fine-grained domain semantics in existing datasets. To bridge this gap, we introduce FORGE. Wefirst construct a high-quality multimodal dataset that combines real-world 2D images and 3D point clouds, annotated with fine-grained domain semantics (e.g., exact model numbers). We then evaluate 18 state-of-the-art MLLMs across three manufacturing tasks, namely workpiece verification, structural surface inspection, and assembly verification, revealing significant performance gaps. Counter to conventional understanding, the bottleneck analysis shows that visual grounding is not the primary limiting factor. Instead, insufficient domain-specific knowledge is the key bottleneck, setting a clear direction for future research. Beyond evaluation, we show that our structured annotations can serve as an actionable training resource: supervised fine-tuning of a compact 3B-parameter model on our data yields up to 90.8% relative improvement in accuracy on held-out manufacturing scenarios, providing preliminary evidence for a practical pathway toward domain-adapted manufacturing MLLMs. The code and datasets are available at https://ai4manufacturing.github.io/forge-web.

Machine learning applications in time series hierarchical forecasting

Hierarchical forecasting (HF) is needed in many situations in the supply chain (SC) because managers often need different levels of forecasts at different levels of SC to make a decision. Top-Down (TD), Bottom-Up (BU) and Optimal Combination (COM) are common HF models. These approaches are static and often ignore the dynamics of the series while disaggregating them. Consequently, they may fail to perform well if the investigated group of time series are subject to large changes such as during the periods of promotional sales. We address the HF problem of predicting real-world sales time series that are highly impacted by promotion. We use three machine learning (ML) models to capture sales variations over time. Artificial neural networks (ANN), extreme gradient boosting (XGboost), and support vector regression (SVR) algorithms are used to estimate the proportions of lower-level time series from the upper level. We perform an in-depth analysis of 61 groups of time series with different volatilities and show that ML models are competitive and outperform some well-established models in the literature.