Training LLMs for Honesty via Confessions

Large language models (LLMs) can be dishonest when reporting on their actions and beliefs -- for example, they may overstate their confidence in factual claims or cover up evidence of covert actions. Such dishonesty may arise due to the effects of reinforcement learning (RL), where challenges with reward shaping can result in a training process that inadvertently incentivizes the model to lie or misrepresent its actions. In this work we propose a method for eliciting an honest expression of an LLM's shortcomings via a self-reported *confession*. A confession is an output, provided upon request after a model's original answer, that is meant to serve as a full account of the model's compliance with the letter and spirit of its policies and instructions. The reward assigned to a confession during training is solely based on its honesty, and does not impact positively or negatively the main answer's reward. As long as the "path of least resistance" for maximizing confession reward is to surface misbehavior rather than covering it up, this incentivizes models to be honest in their confessions. Our findings provide some justification this empirical assumption, especially in the case of egregious model misbehavior. To demonstrate the viability of our approach, we train GPT-5-Thinking to produce confessions, and we evaluate its honesty in out-of-distribution scenarios measuring hallucination, instruction following, scheming, and reward hacking. We find that when the model lies or omits shortcomings in its "main" answer, it often confesses to these behaviors honestly, and this confession honesty modestly improves with training. Confessions can enable a number of inference-time interventions including monitoring, rejection sampling, and surfacing issues to the user.

Estimating the Probabilities of Rare Outputs in Language Models

We consider the problem of low probability estimation: given a machine learning model and a formally-specified input distribution, how can we estimate the probability of a binary property of the model's output, even when that probability is too small to estimate by random sampling? This problem is motivated by the need to improve worst-case performance, which distribution shift can make much more likely. We study low probability estimation in the context of argmax sampling from small transformer language models. We compare two types of methods: importance sampling, which involves searching for inputs giving rise to the rare output, and activation extrapolation, which involves extrapolating a probability distribution fit to the model's logits. We find that importance sampling outperforms activation extrapolation, but both outperform naive sampling. Finally, we explain how minimizing the probability estimate of an undesirable behavior generalizes adversarial training, and argue that new methods for low probability estimation are needed to provide stronger guarantees about worst-case performance.

Harvard Undergraduate Survey on Generative AI

How has generative AI impacted the experiences of college students? We study the influence of AI on the study habits, class choices, and career prospects of Harvard undergraduates (n=326), finding that almost 90% of students use generative AI. For roughly 25% of these students, AI has begun to substitute for attending office hours and completing required readings. Half of students are concerned that AI will negatively impact their job prospects, and over half of students wish that Harvard had more classes on the future impacts of AI. We also investigate students' outlook on the broader social implications of AI, finding that half of students are worried that AI will increase economic inequality, and 40% believe that extinction risk from AI should be treated as a global priority with the same urgency as pandemics and nuclear war. Around half of students who have taken a class on AI expect AI to exceed human capabilities on almost all tasks within 30 years. We make some recommendations to the Harvard community in light of these results.