Extended Fiducial Inference: Toward an Automated Process of Statistical Inference

While fiducial inference was widely considered a big blunder by R.A. Fisher, the goal he initially set --`inferring the uncertainty of model parameters on the basis of observations' -- has been continually pursued by many statisticians. To this end, we develop a new statistical inference method called extended Fiducial inference (EFI). The new method achieves the goal of fiducial inference by leveraging advanced statistical computing techniques while remaining scalable for big data. EFI involves jointly imputing random errors realized in observations using stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo and estimating the inverse function using a sparse deep neural network (DNN). The consistency of the sparse DNN estimator ensures that the uncertainty embedded in observations is properly propagated to model parameters through the estimated inverse function, thereby validating downstream statistical inference. Compared to frequentist and Bayesian methods, EFI offers significant advantages in parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. Specifically, EFI provides higher fidelity in parameter estimation, especially when outliers are present in the observations; and eliminates the need for theoretical reference distributions in hypothesis testing, thereby automating the statistical inference process. EFI also provides an innovative framework for semi-supervised learning.

Causal-StoNet: Causal Inference for High-Dimensional Complex Data

With the advancement of data science, the collection of increasingly complex datasets has become commonplace. In such datasets, the data dimension can be extremely high, and the underlying data generation process can be unknown and highly nonlinear. As a result, the task of making causal inference with high-dimensional complex data has become a fundamental problem in many disciplines, such as medicine, econometrics, and social science. However, the existing methods for causal inference are frequently developed under the assumption that the data dimension is low or that the underlying data generation process is linear or approximately linear. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel causal inference approach for dealing with high-dimensional complex data. The proposed approach is based on deep learning techniques, including sparse deep learning theory and stochastic neural networks, that have been developed in recent literature. By using these techniques, the proposed approach can address both the high dimensionality and unknown data generation process in a coherent way. Furthermore, the proposed approach can also be used when missing values are present in the datasets. Extensive numerical studies indicate that the proposed approach outperforms existing ones.

Fast Value Tracking for Deep Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) tackles sequential decision-making problems by creating agents that interacts with their environment. However, existing algorithms often view these problem as static, focusing on point estimates for model parameters to maximize expected rewards, neglecting the stochastic dynamics of agent-environment interactions and the critical role of uncertainty quantification. Our research leverages the Kalman filtering paradigm to introduce a novel and scalable sampling algorithm called Langevinized Kalman Temporal-Difference (LKTD) for deep reinforcement learning. This algorithm, grounded in Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC), efficiently draws samples from the posterior distribution of deep neural network parameters. Under mild conditions, we prove that the posterior samples generated by the LKTD algorithm converge to a stationary distribution. This convergence not only enables us to quantify uncertainties associated with the value function and model parameters but also allows us to monitor these uncertainties during policy updates throughout the training phase. The LKTD algorithm paves the way for more robust and adaptable reinforcement learning approaches.

Sparse Deep Learning for Time Series Data: Theory and Applications

Sparse deep learning has become a popular technique for improving the performance of deep neural networks in areas such as uncertainty quantification, variable selection, and large-scale network compression. However, most existing research has focused on problems where the observations are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.), and there has been little work on the problems where the observations are dependent, such as time series data and sequential data in natural language processing. This paper aims to address this gap by studying the theory for sparse deep learning with dependent data. We show that sparse recurrent neural networks (RNNs) can be consistently estimated, and their predictions are asymptotically normally distributed under appropriate assumptions, enabling the prediction uncertainty to be correctly quantified. Our numerical results show that sparse deep learning outperforms state-of-the-art methods, such as conformal predictions, in prediction uncertainty quantification for time series data. Furthermore, our results indicate that the proposed method can consistently identify the autoregressive order for time series data and outperform existing methods in large-scale model compression. Our proposed method has important practical implications in fields such as finance, healthcare, and energy, where both accurate point estimates and prediction uncertainty quantification are of concern.

A New Paradigm for Generative Adversarial Networks based on Randomized Decision Rules

The Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) was recently introduced in the literature as a novel machine learning method for training generative models. It has many applications in statistics such as nonparametric clustering and nonparametric conditional independence tests. However, training the GAN is notoriously difficult due to the issue of mode collapse, which refers to the lack of diversity among generated data. In this paper, we identify the reasons why the GAN suffers from this issue, and to address it, we propose a new formulation for the GAN based on randomized decision rules. In the new formulation, the discriminator converges to a fixed point while the generator converges to a distribution at the Nash equilibrium. We propose to train the GAN by an empirical Bayes-like method by treating the discriminator as a hyper-parameter of the posterior distribution of the generator. Specifically, we simulate generators from its posterior distribution conditioned on the discriminator using a stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, and update the discriminator using stochastic gradient descent along with simulations of the generators. We establish convergence of the proposed method to the Nash equilibrium. Apart from image generation, we apply the proposed method to nonparametric clustering and nonparametric conditional independence tests. A portion of the numerical results is presented in the supplementary material.

Non-reversible Parallel Tempering for Deep Posterior Approximation

Parallel tempering (PT), also known as replica exchange, is the go-to workhorse for simulations of multi-modal distributions. The key to the success of PT is to adopt efficient swap schemes. The popular deterministic even-odd (DEO) scheme exploits the non-reversibility property and has successfully reduced the communication cost from $O(P^2)$ to $O(P)$ given sufficiently many $P$ chains. However, such an innovation largely disappears in big data due to the limited chains and few bias-corrected swaps. To handle this issue, we generalize the DEO scheme to promote non-reversibility and propose a few solutions to tackle the underlying bias caused by the geometric stopping time. Notably, in big data scenarios, we obtain an appealing communication cost $O(P\log P)$ based on the optimal window size. In addition, we also adopt stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with large and constant learning rates as exploration kernels. Such a user-friendly nature enables us to conduct approximation tasks for complex posteriors without much tuning costs.

Nonlinear Sufficient Dimension Reduction with a Stochastic Neural Network

Sufficient dimension reduction is a powerful tool to extract core information hidden in the high-dimensional data and has potentially many important applications in machine learning tasks. However, the existing nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction methods often lack the scalability necessary for dealing with large-scale data. We propose a new type of stochastic neural network under a rigorous probabilistic framework and show that it can be used for sufficient dimension reduction for large-scale data. The proposed stochastic neural network is trained using an adaptive stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, whose convergence is rigorously studied in the paper as well. Through extensive experiments on real-world classification and regression problems, we show that the proposed method compares favorably with the existing state-of-the-art sufficient dimension reduction methods and is computationally more efficient for large-scale data.

Interacting Contour Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics

We propose an interacting contour stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (ICSGLD) sampler, an embarrassingly parallel multiple-chain contour stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (CSGLD) sampler with efficient interactions. We show that ICSGLD can be theoretically more efficient than a single-chain CSGLD with an equivalent computational budget. We also present a novel random-field function, which facilitates the estimation of self-adapting parameters in big data and obtains free mode explorations. Empirically, we compare the proposed algorithm with popular benchmark methods for posterior sampling. The numerical results show a great potential of ICSGLD for large-scale uncertainty estimation tasks.

A Kernel-Expanded Stochastic Neural Network

The deep neural network suffers from many fundamental issues in machine learning. For example, it often gets trapped into a local minimum in training, and its prediction uncertainty is hard to be assessed. To address these issues, we propose the so-called kernel-expanded stochastic neural network (K-StoNet) model, which incorporates support vector regression (SVR) as the first hidden layer and reformulates the neural network as a latent variable model. The former maps the input vector into an infinite dimensional feature space via a radial basis function (RBF) kernel, ensuring absence of local minima on its training loss surface. The latter breaks the high-dimensional nonconvex neural network training problem into a series of low-dimensional convex optimization problems, and enables its prediction uncertainty easily assessed. The K-StoNet can be easily trained using the imputation-regularized optimization (IRO) algorithm. Compared to traditional deep neural networks, K-StoNet possesses a theoretical guarantee to asymptotically converge to the global optimum and enables the prediction uncertainty easily assessed. The performances of the new model in training, prediction and uncertainty quantification are illustrated by simulated and real data examples.

Sparse Deep Learning: A New Framework Immune to Local Traps and Miscalibration

Deep learning has powered recent successes of artificial intelligence (AI). However, the deep neural network, as the basic model of deep learning, has suffered from issues such as local traps and miscalibration. In this paper, we provide a new framework for sparse deep learning, which has the above issues addressed in a coherent way. In particular, we lay down a theoretical foundation for sparse deep learning and propose prior annealing algorithms for learning sparse neural networks. The former has successfully tamed the sparse deep neural network into the framework of statistical modeling, enabling prediction uncertainty correctly quantified. The latter can be asymptotically guaranteed to converge to the global optimum, enabling the validity of the down-stream statistical inference. Numerical result indicates the superiority of the proposed method compared to the existing ones.