Scalable Gaussian Processes with Latent Kronecker Structure

Applying Gaussian processes (GPs) to very large datasets remains a challenge due to limited computational scalability. Matrix structures, such as the Kronecker product, can accelerate operations significantly, but their application commonly entails approximations or unrealistic assumptions. In particular, the most common path to creating a Kronecker-structured kernel matrix is by evaluating a product kernel on gridded inputs that can be expressed as a Cartesian product. However, this structure is lost if any observation is missing, breaking the Cartesian product structure, which frequently occurs in real-world data such as time series. To address this limitation, we propose leveraging latent Kronecker structure, by expressing the kernel matrix of observed values as the projection of a latent Kronecker product. In combination with iterative linear system solvers and pathwise conditioning, our method facilitates inference of exact GPs while requiring substantially fewer computational resources than standard iterative methods. We demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art sparse and variational GPs on real-world datasets with up to five million examples, including robotics, automated machine learning, and climate applications.

Robust Gaussian Processes via Relevance Pursuit

Gaussian processes (GPs) are non-parametric probabilistic regression models that are popular due to their flexibility, data efficiency, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, standard GP models assume homoskedastic Gaussian noise, while many real-world applications are subject to non-Gaussian corruptions. Variants of GPs that are more robust to alternative noise models have been proposed, and entail significant trade-offs between accuracy and robustness, and between computational requirements and theoretical guarantees. In this work, we propose and study a GP model that achieves robustness against sparse outliers by inferring data-point-specific noise levels with a sequential selection procedure maximizing the log marginal likelihood that we refer to as relevance pursuit. We show, surprisingly, that the model can be parameterized such that the associated log marginal likelihood is strongly concave in the data-point-specific noise variances, a property rarely found in either robust regression objectives or GP marginal likelihoods. This in turn implies the weak submodularity of the corresponding subset selection problem, and thereby proves approximation guarantees for the proposed algorithm. We compare the model's performance relative to other approaches on diverse regression and Bayesian optimization tasks, including the challenging but common setting of sparse corruptions of the labels within or close to the function range.

Scaling Gaussian Processes for Learning Curve Prediction via Latent Kronecker Structure

A key task in AutoML is to model learning curves of machine learning models jointly as a function of model hyper-parameters and training progression. While Gaussian processes (GPs) are suitable for this task, na\"ive GPs require $\mathcal{O}(n^3m^3)$ time and $\mathcal{O}(n^2 m^2)$ space for $n$ hyper-parameter configurations and $\mathcal{O}(m)$ learning curve observations per hyper-parameter. Efficient inference via Kronecker structure is typically incompatible with early-stopping due to missing learning curve values. We impose $\textit{latent Kronecker structure}$ to leverage efficient product kernels while handling missing values. In particular, we interpret the joint covariance matrix of observed values as the projection of a latent Kronecker product. Combined with iterative linear solvers and structured matrix-vector multiplication, our method only requires $\mathcal{O}(n^3 + m^3)$ time and $\mathcal{O}(n^2 + m^2)$ space. We show that our GP model can match the performance of a Transformer on a learning curve prediction task.

Active Learning for Derivative-Based Global Sensitivity Analysis with Gaussian Processes

We consider the problem of active learning for global sensitivity analysis of expensive black-box functions. Our aim is to efficiently learn the importance of different input variables, e.g., in vehicle safety experimentation, we study the impact of the thickness of various components on safety objectives. Since function evaluations are expensive, we use active learning to prioritize experimental resources where they yield the most value. We propose novel active learning acquisition functions that directly target key quantities of derivative-based global sensitivity measures (DGSMs) under Gaussian process surrogate models. We showcase the first application of active learning directly to DGSMs, and develop tractable uncertainty reduction and information gain acquisition functions for these measures. Through comprehensive evaluation on synthetic and real-world problems, our study demonstrates how these active learning acquisition strategies substantially enhance the sample efficiency of DGSM estimation, particularly with limited evaluation budgets. Our work paves the way for more efficient and accurate sensitivity analysis in various scientific and engineering applications.

Joint Composite Latent Space Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a technique for sample-efficient black-box optimization that employs probabilistic models to identify promising input locations for evaluation. When dealing with composite-structured functions, such as f=g o h, evaluating a specific location x yields observations of both the final outcome f(x) = g(h(x)) as well as the intermediate output(s) h(x). Previous research has shown that integrating information from these intermediate outputs can enhance BO performance substantially. However, existing methods struggle if the outputs h(x) are high-dimensional. Many relevant problems fall into this setting, including in the context of generative AI, molecular design, or robotics. To effectively tackle these challenges, we introduce Joint Composite Latent Space Bayesian Optimization (JoCo), a novel framework that jointly trains neural network encoders and probabilistic models to adaptively compress high-dimensional input and output spaces into manageable latent representations. This enables viable BO on these compressed representations, allowing JoCo to outperform other state-of-the-art methods in high-dimensional BO on a wide variety of simulated and real-world problems.

Unexpected Improvements to Expected Improvement for Bayesian Optimization

Expected Improvement (EI) is arguably the most popular acquisition function in Bayesian optimization and has found countless successful applications, but its performance is often exceeded by that of more recent methods. Notably, EI and its variants, including for the parallel and multi-objective settings, are challenging to optimize because their acquisition values vanish numerically in many regions. This difficulty generally increases as the number of observations, dimensionality of the search space, or the number of constraints grow, resulting in performance that is inconsistent across the literature and most often sub-optimal. Herein, we propose LogEI, a new family of acquisition functions whose members either have identical or approximately equal optima as their canonical counterparts, but are substantially easier to optimize numerically. We demonstrate that numerical pathologies manifest themselves in "classic" analytic EI, Expected Hypervolume Improvement (EHVI), as well as their constrained, noisy, and parallel variants, and propose corresponding reformulations that remedy these pathologies. Our empirical results show that members of the LogEI family of acquisition functions substantially improve on the optimization performance of their canonical counterparts and surprisingly, are on par with or exceed the performance of recent state-of-the-art acquisition functions, highlighting the understated role of numerical optimization in the literature.

Practical Policy Optimization with Personalized Experimentation

Many organizations measure treatment effects via an experimentation platform to evaluate the casual effect of product variations prior to full-scale deployment. However, standard experimentation platforms do not perform optimally for end user populations that exhibit heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs). Here we present a personalized experimentation framework, Personalized Experiments (PEX), which optimizes treatment group assignment at the user level via HTE modeling and sequential decision policy optimization to optimize multiple short-term and long-term outcomes simultaneously. We describe an end-to-end workflow that has proven to be successful in practice and can be readily implemented using open-source software.

qEUBO: A Decision-Theoretic Acquisition Function for Preferential Bayesian Optimization

Preferential Bayesian optimization (PBO) is a framework for optimizing a decision maker's latent utility function using preference feedback. This work introduces the expected utility of the best option (qEUBO) as a novel acquisition function for PBO. When the decision maker's responses are noise-free, we show that qEUBO is one-step Bayes optimal and thus equivalent to the popular knowledge gradient acquisition function. We also show that qEUBO enjoys an additive constant approximation guarantee to the one-step Bayes-optimal policy when the decision maker's responses are corrupted by noise. We provide an extensive evaluation of qEUBO and demonstrate that it outperforms the state-of-the-art acquisition functions for PBO across many settings. Finally, we show that, under sufficient regularity conditions, qEUBO's Bayesian simple regret converges to zero at a rate $o(1/n)$ as the number of queries, $n$, goes to infinity. In contrast, we show that simple regret under qEI, a popular acquisition function for standard BO often used for PBO, can fail to converge to zero. Enjoying superior performance, simple computation, and a grounded decision-theoretic justification, qEUBO is a promising acquisition function for PBO.

Bayesian Optimization over High-Dimensional Combinatorial Spaces via Dictionary-based Embeddings

We consider the problem of optimizing expensive black-box functions over high-dimensional combinatorial spaces which arises in many science, engineering, and ML applications. We use Bayesian Optimization (BO) and propose a novel surrogate modeling approach for efficiently handling a large number of binary and categorical parameters. The key idea is to select a number of discrete structures from the input space (the dictionary) and use them to define an ordinal embedding for high-dimensional combinatorial structures. This allows us to use existing Gaussian process models for continuous spaces. We develop a principled approach based on binary wavelets to construct dictionaries for binary spaces, and propose a randomized construction method that generalizes to categorical spaces. We provide theoretical justification to support the effectiveness of the dictionary-based embeddings. Our experiments on diverse real-world benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed surrogate modeling approach over state-of-the-art BO methods.

Bayesian Optimization over Discrete and Mixed Spaces via Probabilistic Reparameterization

Optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions of discrete (and potentially continuous) design parameters is a ubiquitous problem in scientific and engineering applications. Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular, sample-efficient method that leverages a probabilistic surrogate model and an acquisition function (AF) to select promising designs to evaluate. However, maximizing the AF over mixed or high-cardinality discrete search spaces is challenging standard gradient-based methods cannot be used directly or evaluating the AF at every point in the search space would be computationally prohibitive. To address this issue, we propose using probabilistic reparameterization (PR). Instead of directly optimizing the AF over the search space containing discrete parameters, we instead maximize the expectation of the AF over a probability distribution defined by continuous parameters. We prove that under suitable reparameterizations, the BO policy that maximizes the probabilistic objective is the same as that which maximizes the AF, and therefore, PR enjoys the same regret bounds as the original BO policy using the underlying AF. Moreover, our approach provably converges to a stationary point of the probabilistic objective under gradient ascent using scalable, unbiased estimators of both the probabilistic objective and its gradient. Therefore, as the number of starting points and gradient steps increase, our approach will recover of a maximizer of the AF (an often-neglected requisite for commonly used BO regret bounds). We validate our approach empirically and demonstrate state-of-the-art optimization performance on a wide range of real-world applications. PR is complementary to (and benefits) recent work and naturally generalizes to settings with multiple objectives and black-box constraints.