Excess Description Length of Learning Generalizable Predictors

Understanding whether fine-tuning elicits latent capabilities or teaches new ones is a fundamental question for language model evaluation and safety. We develop a formal information-theoretic framework for quantifying how much predictive structure fine-tuning extracts from the train dataset and writes into a model's parameters. Our central quantity, Excess Description Length (EDL), is defined via prequential coding and measures the gap between the bits required to encode training labels sequentially using an evolving model (trained online) and the residual encoding cost under the final trained model. We establish that EDL is non-negative in expectation, converges to surplus description length in the infinite-data limit, and provides bounds on expected generalization gain. Through a series of toy models, we clarify common confusions about information in learning: why random labels yield EDL near zero, how a single example can eliminate many bits of uncertainty about the underlying rule(s) that describe the data distribution, why structure learned on rare inputs contributes proportionally little to expected generalization, and how format learning creates early transients distinct from capability acquisition. This framework provides rigorous foundations for the empirical observation that capability elicitation and teaching exhibit qualitatively distinct scaling signatures.

Technical Report: Evaluating Goal Drift in Language Model Agents

As language models (LMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents, their robust adherence to human-assigned objectives becomes crucial for safe operation. When these agents operate independently for extended periods without human oversight, even initially well-specified goals may gradually shift. Detecting and measuring goal drift - an agent's tendency to deviate from its original objective over time - presents significant challenges, as goals can shift gradually, causing only subtle behavioral changes. This paper proposes a novel approach to analyzing goal drift in LM agents. In our experiments, agents are first explicitly given a goal through their system prompt, then exposed to competing objectives through environmental pressures. We demonstrate that while the best-performing agent (a scaffolded version of Claude 3.5 Sonnet) maintains nearly perfect goal adherence for more than 100,000 tokens in our most difficult evaluation setting, all evaluated models exhibit some degree of goal drift. We also find that goal drift correlates with models' increasing susceptibility to pattern-matching behaviors as the context length grows.

Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models

Language models demonstrate both quantitative improvement and new qualitative capabilities with increasing scale. Despite their potentially transformative impact, these new capabilities are as yet poorly characterized. In order to inform future research, prepare for disruptive new model capabilities, and ameliorate socially harmful effects, it is vital that we understand the present and near-future capabilities and limitations of language models. To address this challenge, we introduce the Beyond the Imitation Game benchmark (BIG-bench). BIG-bench currently consists of 204 tasks, contributed by 442 authors across 132 institutions. Task topics are diverse, drawing problems from linguistics, childhood development, math, common-sense reasoning, biology, physics, social bias, software development, and beyond. BIG-bench focuses on tasks that are believed to be beyond the capabilities of current language models. We evaluate the behavior of OpenAI's GPT models, Google-internal dense transformer architectures, and Switch-style sparse transformers on BIG-bench, across model sizes spanning millions to hundreds of billions of parameters. In addition, a team of human expert raters performed all tasks in order to provide a strong baseline. Findings include: model performance and calibration both improve with scale, but are poor in absolute terms (and when compared with rater performance); performance is remarkably similar across model classes, though with benefits from sparsity; tasks that improve gradually and predictably commonly involve a large knowledge or memorization component, whereas tasks that exhibit "breakthrough" behavior at a critical scale often involve multiple steps or components, or brittle metrics; social bias typically increases with scale in settings with ambiguous context, but this can be improved with prompting.