Multi-armed bandit (MAB) problems are mainly studied under two extreme settings known as stochastic and adversarial. These two settings, however, do not capture realistic environments such as search engines and marketing and advertising, in which rewards stochastically change in time. Motivated by that, we introduce and study a dynamic MAB problem with stochastic temporal structure, where the expected reward of each arm is governed by an auto-regressive (AR) model. Due to the dynamic nature of the rewards, simple "explore and commit" policies fail, as all arms have to be explored continuously over time. We formalize this by characterizing a per-round regret lower bound, where the regret is measured against a strong (dynamic) benchmark. We then present an algorithm whose per-round regret almost matches our regret lower bound. Our algorithm relies on two mechanisms: (i) alternating between recently pulled arms and unpulled arms with potential, and (ii) restarting. These mechanisms enable the algorithm to dynamically adapt to changes and discard irrelevant past information at a suitable rate. In numerical studies, we further demonstrate the strength of our algorithm under different types of non-stationary settings.
As a predictive measure of the treatment outcome in psychotherapy, the working alliance measures the agreement of the patient and the therapist in terms of their bond, task and goal. Long been a clinical quantity estimated by the patients' and therapists' self-evaluative reports, we believe that the working alliance can be better characterized using natural language processing technique directly in the dialogue transcribed in each therapy session. In this work, we propose the Working Alliance Transformer (WAT), a Transformer-based classification model that has a psychological state encoder which infers the working alliance scores by projecting the embedding of the dialogues turns onto the embedding space of the clinical inventory for working alliance. We evaluate our method in a real-world dataset with over 950 therapy sessions with anxiety, depression, schizophrenia and suicidal patients and demonstrate an empirical advantage of using information about the therapeutic states in this sequence classification task of psychotherapy dialogues.
This paper is concerned with online targeted advertising on social networks. The main technical task we address is to estimate the activation probability for user pairs, which quantifies the influence one user may have on another towards purchasing decisions. This is a challenging task because one marketing episode typically involves a multitude of marketing campaigns/strategies of different products for highly diverse customers. In this paper, we propose what we believe is the first tensor-based contextual bandit framework for online targeted advertising. The proposed framework is designed to accommodate any number of feature vectors in the form of multi-mode tensor, thereby enabling to capture the heterogeneity that may exist over user preferences, products, and campaign strategies in a unified manner. To handle inter-dependency of tensor modes, we introduce an online variational algorithm with a mean-field approximation. We empirically confirm that the proposed TensorUCB algorithm achieves a significant improvement in influence maximization tasks over the benchmarks, which is attributable to its capability of capturing the user-product heterogeneity.
In this work, we compare different neural topic modeling methods in learning the topical propensities of different psychiatric conditions from the psychotherapy session transcripts parsed from speech recordings. We also incorporate temporal modeling to put this additional interpretability to action by parsing out topic similarities as a time series in a turn-level resolution. We believe this topic modeling framework can offer interpretable insights for the therapist to optimally decide his or her strategy and improve the psychotherapy effectiveness.
The therapeutic working alliance is an important predictor of the outcome of the psychotherapy treatment. In practice, the working alliance is estimated from a set of scoring questionnaires in an inventory that both the patient and the therapists fill out. In this work, we propose an analytical framework of directly inferring the therapeutic working alliance from the natural language within the psychotherapy sessions in a turn-level resolution with deep embeddings such as the Doc2Vec and SentenceBERT models. The transcript of each psychotherapy session can be transcribed and generated in real-time from the session speech recordings, and these embedded dialogues are compared with the distributed representations of the statements in the working alliance inventory. We demonstrate, in a real-world dataset with over 950 sessions of psychotherapy treatments in anxiety, depression, schizophrenia and suicidal patients, the effectiveness of this method in mapping out trajectories of patient-therapist alignment and the interpretability that can offer insights in clinical psychiatry. We believe such a framework can be provide timely feedback to the therapist regarding the quality of the conversation in interview sessions.
In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is an open challenge and critical practical problem to find a optimal way to dynamically prescribe the best policies that balance both the governmental resources and epidemic control in different countries and regions. To solve this multi-dimensional tradeoff of exploitation and exploration, we formulate this technical challenge as a contextual combinatorial bandit problem that jointly optimizes a multi-criteria reward function. Given the historical daily cases in a region and the past intervention plans in place, the agent should generate useful intervention plans that policy makers can implement in real time to minimizing both the number of daily COVID-19 cases and the stringency of the recommended interventions. We prove this concept with simulations of multiple realistic policy making scenarios.
Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms aim to learn optimal decisions in unknown environments through experience of taking actions and observing the rewards gained. In some cases, the environment is not influenced by the actions of the RL agent, in which case the problem can be modeled as a contextual multi-armed bandit and lightweight \emph{myopic} algorithms can be employed. On the other hand, when the RL agent's actions affect the environment, the problem must be modeled as a Markov decision process and more complex RL algorithms are required which take the future effects of actions into account. Moreover, in many modern RL settings, it is unknown from the outset whether or not the agent's actions will impact the environment and it is often not possible to determine which RL algorithm is most fitting. In this work, we propose to avoid this dilemma entirely and incorporate a choice mechanism into our RL framework. Rather than assuming a specific problem structure, we use a probabilistic structure estimation procedure based on a likelihood-ratio (LR) test to make a more informed selection of learning algorithm. We derive a sufficient condition under which myopic policies are optimal, present an LR test for this condition, and derive a bound on the regret of our framework. We provide examples of real-world scenarios where our framework is needed and provide extensive simulations to validate our approach.
The Multi-armed bandit offer the advantage to learn and exploit the already learnt knowledge at the same time. This capability allows this approach to be applied in different domains, going from clinical trials where the goal is investigating the effects of different experimental treatments while minimizing patient losses, to adaptive routing where the goal is to minimize the delays in a network. This article provides a review of the recent results on applying bandit to real-life scenario and summarize the state of the art for each of these fields. Different techniques has been proposed to solve this problem setting, like epsilon-greedy, Upper confident bound (UCB) and Thompson Sampling (TS). We are showing here how this algorithms were adapted to solve the different problems of exploration exploitation.
Unlike traditional time series, the action sequences of human decision making usually involve many cognitive processes such as beliefs, desires, intentions and theory of mind, i.e. what others are thinking. This makes predicting human decision making challenging to be treated agnostically to the underlying psychological mechanisms. We propose to use a recurrent neural network architecture based on long short-term memory networks (LSTM) to predict the time series of the actions taken by the human subjects at each step of their decision making, the first application of such methods in this research domain. We trained our prediction networks on the behavioral data from several published psychological experiments of human decision making, and demonstrated a clear advantage over the state-of-the-art methods in predicting human decision making trajectories in both single-agent scenarios such as Iowa Gambling Task and multi-agent scenarios such as Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma.
Model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) effectively meta-learns an initialization of model parameters for few-shot learning where all learning problems share the same format of model parameters -- congruous meta-learning. We extend MAML to incongruous meta-learning where different yet related few-shot learning problems may not share any model parameters. A Learned Fine Tuner (LFT) is used to replace hand-designed optimizers such as SGD for the task-specific fine-tuning. Here, MAML instead meta-learns the parameters of this LFT across incongruous tasks leveraging the learning-to-optimize (L2O) framework such that models fine-tuned with LFT (even from random initializations) adapt quickly to new tasks. As novel contributions, we show that the use of LFT within MAML (i) offers the capability to tackle few-shot learning tasks by meta-learning across incongruous yet related problems (e.g., classification over images of different sizes and model architectures), and (ii) can efficiently work with first-order and derivative-free few-shot learning problems. Theoretically, we quantify the difference between LFT (for MAML) and L2O. Empirically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of LFT through both synthetic and real problems and a novel application of generating universal adversarial attacks across different image sources in the few-shot learning regime.