Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Overthinking the Truth: Understanding how Language Models Process False Demonstrations

Modern language models can imitate complex patterns through few-shot learning, enabling them to complete challenging tasks without fine-tuning. However, imitation can also lead models to reproduce inaccuracies or harmful content if present in the context. We study harmful imitation through the lens of a model's internal representations, and identify two related phenomena: overthinking and false induction heads. The first phenomenon, overthinking, appears when we decode predictions from intermediate layers, given correct vs. incorrect few-shot demonstrations. At early layers, both demonstrations induce similar model behavior, but the behavior diverges sharply at some "critical layer", after which the accuracy given incorrect demonstrations progressively decreases. The second phenomenon, false induction heads, are a possible mechanistic cause of overthinking: these are heads in late layers that attend to and copy false information from previous demonstrations, and whose ablation reduces overthinking. Beyond scientific understanding, our results suggest that studying intermediate model computations could be a promising avenue for understanding and guarding against harmful model behaviors.

Eliciting Latent Predictions from Transformers with the Tuned Lens

We analyze transformers from the perspective of iterative inference, seeking to understand how model predictions are refined layer by layer. To do so, we train an affine probe for each block in a frozen pretrained model, making it possible to decode every hidden state into a distribution over the vocabulary. Our method, the tuned lens, is a refinement of the earlier "logit lens" technique, which yielded useful insights but is often brittle. We test our method on various autoregressive language models with up to 20B parameters, showing it to be more predictive, reliable and unbiased than the logit lens. With causal experiments, we show the tuned lens uses similar features to the model itself. We also find the trajectory of latent predictions can be used to detect malicious inputs with high accuracy. All code needed to reproduce our results can be found at https://github.com/AlignmentResearch/tuned-lens.