Privacy Risks in Time Series Forecasting: User- and Record-Level Membership Inference

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) aim to determine whether specific data were used to train a model. While extensively studied on classification models, their impact on time series forecasting remains largely unexplored. We address this gap by introducing two new attacks: (i) an adaptation of multivariate LiRA, a state-of-the-art MIA originally developed for classification models, to the time-series forecasting setting, and (ii) a novel end-to-end learning approach called Deep Time Series (DTS) attack. We benchmark these methods against adapted versions of other leading attacks from the classification setting. We evaluate all attacks in realistic settings on the TUH-EEG and ELD datasets, targeting two strong forecasting architectures, LSTM and the state-of-the-art N-HiTS, under both record- and user-level threat models. Our results show that forecasting models are vulnerable, with user-level attacks often achieving perfect detection. The proposed methods achieve the strongest performance in several settings, establishing new baselines for privacy risk assessment in time series forecasting. Furthermore, vulnerability increases with longer prediction horizons and smaller training populations, echoing trends observed in large language models.

Evaluation of the impact of expert knowledge: How decision support scores impact the effectiveness of automatic knowledge-driven feature engineering (aKDFE)

Adverse Drug Events (ADEs), harmful medication effects, pose significant healthcare challenges, impacting patient safety and costs. This study evaluates automatic Knowledge-Driven Feature Engineering (aKDFE) for improved ADE prediction from Electronic Health Record (EHR) data, comparing it with automated event-based Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD). We investigated how incorporating domain-specific ADE risk scores for prolonged heart QT interval, extracted from the Janusmed Riskprofile (Janusmed) Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS), affects prediction performance using EHR data and medication handling events. Results indicate that, while aKDFE step 1 (event-based feature generation) alone did not significantly improve ADE prediction performance, aKDFE step 2 (patient-centric transformation) enhances the prediction performance. High Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC) values suggest strong feature correlations to the outcome, aligning with the predictive power of patients' prior healthcare history for ADEs. Statistical analysis did not confirm that incorporating the Janusmed information (i) risk scores and (ii) medication route of administration into the model's feature set enhanced predictive performance. However, the patient-centric transformation applied by aKDFE proved to be a highly effective feature engineering approach. Limitations include a single-project focus, potential bias from machine learning pipeline methods, and reliance on AUROC. In conclusion, aKDFE, particularly with patient-centric transformation, improves ADE prediction from EHR data. Future work will explore attention-based models, event feature sequences, and automatic methods for incorporating domain knowledge into the aKDFE framework.

Situational-Aware Multi-Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (SA-MGCRN) for Travel Demand Forecasting During Wildfires

Real-time forecasting of travel demand during wildfire evacuations is crucial for emergency managers and transportation planners to make timely and better-informed decisions. However, few studies focus on accurate travel demand forecasting in large-scale emergency evacuations. Therefore, this study develops and tests a new methodological framework for modeling trip generation in wildfire evacuations by using (a) large-scale GPS data generated by mobile devices and (b) state-of-the-art AI technologies. The proposed methodology aims at forecasting evacuation trips and other types of trips. Based on the travel demand inferred from the GPS data, we develop a new deep learning model, i.e., Situational-Aware Multi-Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (SA-MGCRN), along with a model updating scheme to achieve real-time forecasting of travel demand during wildfire evacuations. The proposed methodological framework is tested in this study for a real-world case study: the 2019 Kincade Fire in Sonoma County, CA. The results show that SA-MGCRN significantly outperforms all the selected state-of-the-art benchmarks in terms of prediction performance. Our finding suggests that the most important model components of SA-MGCRN are evacuation order/warning information, proximity to fire, and population change, which are consistent with behavioral theories and empirical findings.