Variational Approach for Efficient KL Divergence Estimation in Dirichlet Mixture Models

This study tackles the efficient estimation of Kullback-Leibler (KL) Divergence in Dirichlet Mixture Models (DMM), crucial for clustering compositional data. Despite the significance of DMMs, obtaining an analytically tractable solution for KL Divergence has proven elusive. Past approaches relied on computationally demanding Monte Carlo methods, motivating our introduction of a novel variational approach. Our method offers a closed-form solution, significantly enhancing computational efficiency for swift model comparisons and robust estimation evaluations. Validation using real and simulated data showcases its superior efficiency and accuracy over traditional Monte Carlo-based methods, opening new avenues for rapid exploration of diverse DMM models and advancing statistical analyses of compositional data.

Position Paper: Bridging the Gap Between Machine Learning and Sensitivity Analysis

We argue that interpretations of machine learning (ML) models or the model-building process can bee seen as a form of sensitivity analysis (SA), a general methodology used to explain complex systems in many fields such as environmental modeling, engineering, or economics. We address both researchers and practitioners, calling attention to the benefits of a unified SA-based view of explanations in ML and the necessity to fully credit related work. We bridge the gap between both fields by formally describing how (a) the ML process is a system suitable for SA, (b) how existing ML interpretation methods relate to this perspective, and (c) how other SA techniques could be applied to ML.

fmeffects: An R Package for Forward Marginal Effects

Forward marginal effects (FMEs) have recently been introduced as a versatile and effective model-agnostic interpretation method. They provide comprehensible and actionable model explanations in the form of: If we change $x$ by an amount $h$, what is the change in predicted outcome $\widehat{y}$? We present the R package fmeffects, the first software implementation of FMEs. The relevant theoretical background, package functionality and handling, as well as the software design and options for future extensions are discussed in this paper.

A tailored Handwritten-Text-Recognition System for Medieval Latin

The Bavarian Academy of Sciences and Humanities aims to digitize its Medieval Latin Dictionary. This dictionary entails record cards referring to lemmas in medieval Latin, a low-resource language. A crucial step of the digitization process is the Handwritten Text Recognition (HTR) of the handwritten lemmas found on these record cards. In our work, we introduce an end-to-end pipeline, tailored to the medieval Latin dictionary, for locating, extracting, and transcribing the lemmas. We employ two state-of-the-art (SOTA) image segmentation models to prepare the initial data set for the HTR task. Furthermore, we experiment with different transformer-based models and conduct a set of experiments to explore the capabilities of different combinations of vision encoders with a GPT-2 decoder. Additionally, we also apply extensive data augmentation resulting in a highly competitive model. The best-performing setup achieved a Character Error Rate (CER) of 0.015, which is even superior to the commercial Google Cloud Vision model, and shows more stable performance.

Classifying multilingual party manifestos: Domain transfer across country, time, and genre

Annotating costs of large corpora are still one of the main bottlenecks in empirical social science research. On the one hand, making use of the capabilities of domain transfer allows re-using annotated data sets and trained models. On the other hand, it is not clear how well domain transfer works and how reliable the results are for transfer across different dimensions. We explore the potential of domain transfer across geographical locations, languages, time, and genre in a large-scale database of political manifestos. First, we show the strong within-domain classification performance of fine-tuned transformer models. Second, we vary the genre of the test set across the aforementioned dimensions to test for the fine-tuned models' robustness and transferability. For switching genres, we use an external corpus of transcribed speeches from New Zealand politicians while for the other three dimensions, custom splits of the Manifesto database are used. While BERT achieves the best scores in the initial experiments across modalities, DistilBERT proves to be competitive at a lower computational expense and is thus used for further experiments across time and country. The results of the additional analysis show that (Distil)BERT can be applied to future data with similar performance. Moreover, we observe (partly) notable differences between the political manifestos of different countries of origin, even if these countries share a language or a cultural background.

How Different Is Stereotypical Bias Across Languages?

Recent studies have demonstrated how to assess the stereotypical bias in pre-trained English language models. In this work, we extend this branch of research in multiple different dimensions by systematically investigating (a) mono- and multilingual models of (b) different underlying architectures with respect to their bias in (c) multiple different languages. To that end, we make use of the English StereoSet data set (Nadeem et al., 2021), which we semi-automatically translate into German, French, Spanish, and Turkish. We find that it is of major importance to conduct this type of analysis in a multilingual setting, as our experiments show a much more nuanced picture as well as notable differences from the English-only analysis. The main takeaways from our analysis are that mGPT-2 (partly) shows surprising anti-stereotypical behavior across languages, English (monolingual) models exhibit the strongest bias, and the stereotypes reflected in the data set are least present in Turkish models. Finally, we release our codebase alongside the translated data sets and practical guidelines for the semi-automatic translation to encourage a further extension of our work to other languages.

Using interpretable boosting algorithms for modeling environmental and agricultural data

We describe how interpretable boosting algorithms based on ridge-regularized generalized linear models can be used to analyze high-dimensional environmental data. We illustrate this by using environmental, social, human and biophysical data to predict the financial vulnerability of farmers in Chile and Tunisia against climate hazards. We show how group structures can be considered and how interactions can be found in high-dimensional datasets using a novel 2-step boosting approach. The advantages and efficacy of the proposed method are shown and discussed. Results indicate that the presence of interaction effects only improves predictive power when included in two-step boosting. The most important variable in predicting all types of vulnerabilities are natural assets. Other important variables are the type of irrigation, economic assets and the presence of crop damage of near farms.

Multimodal Deep Learning

This book is the result of a seminar in which we reviewed multimodal approaches and attempted to create a solid overview of the field, starting with the current state-of-the-art approaches in the two subfields of Deep Learning individually. Further, modeling frameworks are discussed where one modality is transformed into the other, as well as models in which one modality is utilized to enhance representation learning for the other. To conclude the second part, architectures with a focus on handling both modalities simultaneously are introduced. Finally, we also cover other modalities as well as general-purpose multi-modal models, which are able to handle different tasks on different modalities within one unified architecture. One interesting application (Generative Art) eventually caps off this booklet.

Sparse-group boosting -- Unbiased group and variable selection

In the presence of grouped covariates, we propose a framework for boosting that allows to enforce sparsity within and between groups. By using component-wise and group-wise gradient boosting at the same time with adjusted degrees of freedom, a model with similar properties as the sparse group lasso can be fitted through boosting. We show that within-group and between-group sparsity can be controlled by a mixing parameter and discuss similarities and differences to the mixing parameter in the sparse group lasso. With simulations, gene data as well as agricultural data we show the effectiveness and predictive competitiveness of this estimator. The data and simulations suggest, that in the presence of grouped variables the use of sparse group boosting is associated with less biased variable selection and higher predictability compared to component-wise boosting. Additionally, we propose a way of reducing bias in component-wise boosting through the degrees of freedom.

Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates With Parameter-Free Regression Networks Tuned By Bayesian Optimization

The article is concerned with the problem of multi-step financial time series forecasting of Foreign Exchange (FX) rates. To address this problem, we introduce a parameter-free regression network termed RegPred Net. The exchange rate to forecast is treated as a stochastic process. It is assumed to follow a generalization of Brownian motion and the mean-reverting process referred to as the generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, with time-dependent coefficients. Using past observed values of the input time series, these coefficients can be regressed online by the cells of the first half of the network (Reg). The regressed coefficients depend only on - but are very sensitive to - a small number of hyperparameters required to be set by a global optimization procedure for which, Bayesian optimization is an adequate heuristic. Thanks to its multi-layered architecture, the second half of the regression network (Pred) can project time-dependent values for the OU process coefficients and generate realistic trajectories of the time series. Predictions can be easily derived in the form of expected values estimated by averaging values obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. The forecasting accuracy on a 100 days horizon is evaluated for several of the most important FX rates such as EUR/USD, EUR/CNY, and EUR/GBP. Our experimental results show that the RegPred Net significantly outperforms ARMA, ARIMA, LSTMs, and Autoencoder-LSTM models in this task.