When GNNs Fail: Quantifying and Overcoming Temporal Correlation Volatility in Time Series

Modeling multivariate time series by representing them as graphs, where individual series act as nodes and pairwise temporal corre- lations serve as edges, has gained significant traction. Recent advances in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated strong perfor- mance by assuming a static graph topology and aggregating information from neighboring series. In this work, we investigate the representa- tional power of GNNs for forecasting under both static and dynamic settings (i.e., when pairwise correlations evolve drastically over time) and identify critical limitations in current architectures. To formalize this, we first propose Temporal Correlation Volatility (TCV), a model- agnostic metric designed to quantify the distributional evolution of these latent structures. We establish a clear connection between TCV and performance degradation, demonstrating that many popular models, including Transformers, generalize poorly in high-TCV settings and are often outperformed by simple structure-agnostic baselines. To address these limitations, we propose Graph Layer for Inference in Dynamic En- vironments (GLIDE), a novel GNN layer enhanced by two theoretically grounded design mechanisms: (D1) Path-based Message Passing, which captures path-based neighborhoods and (D2) Static and Dynamic Propagation Separation, which identifies optimal dynamics via local static approximation. These components significantly improve learning under dynamic topology while preserving robustness in static scenarios. Ex- tensive experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks show that GLIDE improves average performance by up to 45.6% across static and dynamic settings, with the largest gain reaching 85.7%. The source code is available at https://github.com/ChenS676/GLIDE.

Advanced Equalization in 112 Gb/s Upstream PON Using a Novel Fourier Convolution-based Network

We experimentally demonstrate a novel, low-complexity Fourier Convolution-based Network (FConvNet) based equalizer for 112 Gb/s upstream PAM4-PON. At a BER of 0.005, FConvNet enhances the receiver sensitivity by 2 and 1 dB compared to a 51-tap Sato equalizer and benchmark machine learning algorithms respectively.

Machine Learning in Short-Reach Optical Systems: A Comprehensive Survey

In recent years, extensive research has been conducted to explore the utilization of machine learning algorithms in various direct-detected and self-coherent short-reach communication applications. These applications encompass a wide range of tasks, including bandwidth request prediction, signal quality monitoring, fault detection, traffic prediction, and digital signal processing (DSP)-based equalization. As a versatile approach, machine learning demonstrates the ability to address stochastic phenomena in optical systems networks where deterministic methods may fall short. However, when it comes to DSP equalization algorithms, their performance improvements are often marginal, and their complexity is prohibitively high, especially in cost-sensitive short-reach communications scenarios such as passive optical networks (PONs). They excel in capturing temporal dependencies, handling irregular or nonlinear patterns effectively, and accommodating variable time intervals. Within this extensive survey, we outline the application of machine learning techniques in short-reach communications, specifically emphasizing their utilization in high-bandwidth demanding PONs. Notably, we introduce a novel taxonomy for time-series methods employed in machine learning signal processing, providing a structured classification framework. Our taxonomy categorizes current time series methods into four distinct groups: traditional methods, Fourier convolution-based methods, transformer-based models, and time-series convolutional networks. Finally, we highlight prospective research directions within this rapidly evolving field and outline specific solutions to mitigate the complexity associated with hardware implementations. We aim to pave the way for more practical and efficient deployment of machine learning approaches in short-reach optical communication systems by addressing complexity concerns.

A Novel Machine Learning-based Equalizer for a Downstream 100G PAM-4 PON

A frequency-calibrated SCINet (FC-SCINet) equalizer is proposed for down-stream 100G PON with 28.7 dB path loss. At 5 km, FC-SCINet improves the BER by 88.87% compared to FFE and a 3-layer DNN with 10.57% lower complexity.