Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference

Statistical estimation often involves tradeoffs between expensive, high-quality measurements and a variety of lower-quality proxies. We introduce Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference (MultiPPI): a general framework for constructing statistically efficient estimates by optimally allocating resources across these diverse data sources. This work provides theoretical guarantees about the minimax optimality, finite-sample performance, and asymptotic normality of the MultiPPI estimator. Through experiments across three diverse large language model (LLM) evaluation scenarios, we show that MultiPPI consistently achieves lower estimation error than existing baselines. This advantage stems from its budget-adaptive allocation strategy, which strategically combines subsets of models by learning their complex cost and correlation structures.

An Annotated Dataset of Errors in Premodern Greek and Baselines for Detecting Them

As premodern texts are passed down over centuries, errors inevitably accrue. These errors can be challenging to identify, as some have survived undetected for so long precisely because they are so elusive. While prior work has evaluated error detection methods on artificially-generated errors, we introduce the first dataset of real errors in premodern Greek, enabling the evaluation of error detection methods on errors that genuinely accumulated at some stage in the centuries-long copying process. To create this dataset, we use metrics derived from BERT conditionals to sample 1,000 words more likely to contain errors, which are then annotated and labeled by a domain expert as errors or not. We then propose and evaluate new error detection methods and find that our discriminator-based detector outperforms all other methods, improving the true positive rate for classifying real errors by 5%. We additionally observe that scribal errors are more difficult to detect than print or digitization errors. Our dataset enables the evaluation of error detection methods on real errors in premodern texts for the first time, providing a benchmark for developing more effective error detection algorithms to assist scholars in restoring premodern works.

Probabilistically-sound beam search with masked language models

Beam search with masked language models (MLMs) is challenging in part because joint probability distributions over sequences are not readily available, unlike for autoregressive models. Nevertheless, estimating such distributions has applications in many domains, including protein engineering and ancient text restoration. We present probabilistically-sound methods for beam search with MLMs. First, we clarify the conditions under which it is theoretically sound to perform text infilling with MLMs using standard beam search. When these conditions fail, we provide a probabilistically-sound modification with no additional computational complexity and demonstrate that it is superior to the aforementioned beam search in the expected conditions. We then present empirical results comparing several infilling approaches with MLMs across several domains.

Logion: Machine Learning for Greek Philology

This paper presents machine-learning methods to address various problems in Greek philology. After training a BERT model on the largest premodern Greek dataset used for this purpose to date, we identify and correct previously undetected errors made by scribes in the process of textual transmission, in what is, to our knowledge, the first successful identification of such errors via machine learning. Additionally, we demonstrate the model's capacity to fill gaps caused by material deterioration of premodern manuscripts and compare the model's performance to that of a domain expert. We find that best performance is achieved when the domain expert is provided with model suggestions for inspiration. With such human-computer collaborations in mind, we explore the model's interpretability and find that certain attention heads appear to encode select grammatical features of premodern Greek.