Generating Feasible and Plausible Counterfactual Explanations for Outcome Prediction of Business Processes

In recent years, various machine and deep learning architectures have been successfully introduced to the field of predictive process analytics. Nevertheless, the inherent opacity of these algorithms poses a significant challenge for human decision-makers, hindering their ability to understand the reasoning behind the predictions. This growing concern has sparked the introduction of counterfactual explanations, designed as human-understandable what if scenarios, to provide clearer insights into the decision-making process behind undesirable predictions. The generation of counterfactual explanations, however, encounters specific challenges when dealing with the sequential nature of the (business) process cases typically used in predictive process analytics. Our paper tackles this challenge by introducing a data-driven approach, REVISEDplus, to generate more feasible and plausible counterfactual explanations. First, we restrict the counterfactual algorithm to generate counterfactuals that lie within a high-density region of the process data, ensuring that the proposed counterfactuals are realistic and feasible within the observed process data distribution. Additionally, we ensure plausibility by learning sequential patterns between the activities in the process cases, utilising Declare language templates. Finally, we evaluate the properties that define the validity of counterfactuals.

MDF-Net: Multimodal Dual-Fusion Network for Abnormality Detection using CXR Images and Clinical Data

This study aims to investigate the effects of including patients' clinical information on the performance of deep learning (DL) classifiers for disease location in chest X-ray images. Although current classifiers achieve high performance using chest X-ray images alone, our interviews with radiologists indicate that clinical data is highly informative and essential for interpreting images and making proper diagnoses. In this work, we propose a novel architecture consisting of two fusion methods that enable the model to simultaneously process patients' clinical data (structured data) and chest X-rays (image data). Since these data modalities are in different dimensional spaces, we propose a spatial arrangement strategy, termed spatialization, to facilitate the multimodal learning process in a Mask R-CNN model. We performed an extensive experimental evaluation comprising three datasets with different modalities: MIMIC CXR (chest X-ray images), MIMIC IV-ED (patients' clinical data), and REFLACX (annotations of disease locations in chest X-rays). Results show that incorporating patients' clinical data in a DL model together with the proposed fusion methods improves the performance of disease localization in chest X-rays by 12\% in terms of Average Precision compared to a standard Mask R-CNN using only chest X-rays. Further ablation studies also emphasize the importance of multimodal DL architectures and the incorporation of patients' clinical data in disease localisation. The architecture proposed in this work is publicly available to promote the scientific reproducibility of our study (https://github.com/ChihchengHsieh/multimodal-abnormalities-detection).

Immersive Virtual Colonoscopy Viewer for Colorectal Diagnosis

Desktop-based virtual colonoscopy has been proven to be an asset in the identification of colon anomalies. The process is accurate, although time-consuming. The use of immersive interfaces for virtual colonoscopy is incipient and not yet understood. In this work, we present a new design exploring elements of the VR paradigm to make the immersive analysis more efficient while still effective. We also plan the conduction of experiments with experts to assess the multi-factor influences of coverage, duration, and diagnostic accuracy.

Integrating Eye-Gaze Data into CXR DL Approaches: A Preliminary study

This paper proposes a novel multimodal DL architecture incorporating medical images and eye-tracking data for abnormality detection in chest x-rays. Our results show that applying eye gaze data directly into DL architectures does not show superior predictive performance in abnormality detection chest X-rays. These results support other works in the literature and suggest that human-generated data, such as eye gaze, needs a more thorough investigation before being applied to DL architectures.

Benchmark Evaluation of Counterfactual Algorithms for XAI: From a White Box to a Black Box

Counterfactual explanations have recently been brought to light as a potentially crucial response to obtaining human-understandable explanations from predictive models in Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI). Despite the fact that various counterfactual algorithms have been proposed, the state of the art research still lacks standardised protocols to evaluate the quality of counterfactual explanations. In this work, we conducted a benchmark evaluation across different model agnostic counterfactual algorithms in the literature (DiCE, WatcherCF, prototype, unjustifiedCF), and we investigated the counterfactual generation process on different types of machine learning models ranging from a white box (decision tree) to a grey-box (random forest) and a black box (neural network). We evaluated the different counterfactual algorithms using several metrics including proximity, interpretability and functionality for five datasets. The main findings of this work are the following: (1) without guaranteeing plausibility in the counterfactual generation process, one cannot have meaningful evaluation results. This means that all explainable counterfactual algorithms that do not take into consideration plausibility in their internal mechanisms cannot be evaluated with the current state of the art evaluation metrics; (2) the counterfactual generated are not impacted by the different types of machine learning models; (3) DiCE was the only tested algorithm that was able to generate actionable and plausible counterfactuals, because it provides mechanisms to constraint features; (4) WatcherCF and UnjustifiedCF are limited to continuous variables and can not deal with categorical data.

Improving X-ray Diagnostics through Eye-Tracking and XR

There is a growing need to assist radiologists in performing X-ray readings and diagnoses fast, comfortably, and effectively. As radiologists strive to maximize productivity, it is essential to consider the impact of reading rooms in interpreting complex examinations and ensure that higher volume and reporting speeds do not compromise patient outcomes. Virtual Reality (VR) is a disruptive technology for clinical practice in assessing X-ray images. We argue that conjugating eye-tracking with VR devices and Machine Learning may overcome obstacles posed by inadequate ergonomic postures and poor room conditions that often cause erroneous diagnostics when professionals examine digital images.

An Extension Of Combinatorial Contextuality For Cognitive Protocols

This article extends the combinatorial approach to support the determination of contextuality amidst causal influences. Contextuality is an active field of study in Quantum Cognition, in systems relating to mental phenomena, such as concepts in human memory [Aerts et al., 2013]. In the cognitive field of study, a contemporary challenge facing the determination of whether a phenomenon is contextual has been the identification and management of disturbances [Dzhafarov et al., 2016]. Whether or not said disturbances are identified through the modelling approach, constitute causal influences, or are disregardableas as noise is important, as contextuality cannot be adequately determined in the presence of causal influences [Gleason, 1957]. To address this challenge, we first provide a formalisation of necessary elements of the combinatorial approach within the language of canonical9 causal models. Through this formalisation, we extend the combinatorial approach to support a measurement and treatment of disturbance, and offer techniques to separately distinguish noise and causal influences. Thereafter, we develop a protocol through which these elements may be represented within a cognitive experiment. As human cognition seems rife with causal influences, cognitive modellers may apply the extended combinatorial approach to practically determine the contextuality of cognitive phenomena.

Building Interpretable Models for Business Process Prediction using Shared and Specialised Attention Mechanisms

In this paper, we address the "black-box" problem in predictive process analytics by building interpretable models that are capable to inform both what and why is a prediction. Predictive process analytics is a newly emerged discipline dedicated to providing business process intelligence in modern organisations. It uses event logs, which capture process execution traces in the form of multi-dimensional sequence data, as the key input to train predictive models. These predictive models, often built upon deep learning techniques, can be used to make predictions about the future states of business process execution. We apply attention mechanism to achieve model interpretability. We propose i) two types of attentions: event attention to capture the impact of specific process events on a prediction, and attribute attention to reveal which attribute(s) of an event influenced the prediction; and ii) two attention mechanisms: shared attention mechanism and specialised attention mechanism to reflect different design decisions in when to construct attribute attention on individual input features (specialised) or using the concatenated feature tensor of all input feature vectors (shared). These lead to two distinct attention-based models, and both are interpretable models that incorporate interpretability directly into the structure of a process predictive model. We conduct experimental evaluation of the proposed models using real-life dataset, and comparative analysis between the models for accuracy and interpretability, and draw insights from the evaluation and analysis results.

Interpreting Process Predictions using a Milestone-Aware Counterfactual Approach

Predictive process analytics often apply machine learning to predict the future states of a running business process. However, the internal mechanisms of many existing predictive algorithms are opaque and a human decision-maker is unable to understand \emph{why} a certain activity was predicted. Recently, counterfactuals have been proposed in the literature to derive human-understandable explanations from predictive models. Current counterfactual approaches consist of finding the minimum feature change that can make a certain prediction flip its outcome. Although many algorithms have been proposed, their application to the sequence and multi-dimensional data like event logs has not been explored in the literature. In this paper, we explore the use of a recent, popular model-agnostic counterfactual algorithm, DiCE, in the context of predictive process analytics. The analysis reveals that the algorithm is limited when being applied to derive explanations of process predictions, due to (1) process domain knowledge not being taken into account, (2) long traces that often tend to be less understandable, and (3) difficulties in optimising the counterfactual search with categorical variables. We design an extension of DiCE that can generate counterfactuals for process predictions, and propose an approach that supports deriving milestone-aware counterfactuals at different stages of a trace to promote interpretability. We apply our approach to BPIC2012 event log and the analysis results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Explainable AI Enabled Inspection of Business Process Prediction Models

Modern data analytics underpinned by machine learning techniques has become a key enabler to the automation of data-led decision making. As an important branch of state-of-the-art data analytics, business process predictions are also faced with a challenge in regard to the lack of explanation to the reasoning and decision by the underlying `black-box' prediction models. With the development of interpretable machine learning techniques, explanations can be generated for a black-box model, making it possible for (human) users to access the reasoning behind machine learned predictions. In this paper, we aim to present an approach that allows us to use model explanations to investigate certain reasoning applied by machine learned predictions and detect potential issues with the underlying methods thus enhancing trust in business process prediction models. A novel contribution of our approach is the proposal of model inspection that leverages both the explanations generated by interpretable machine learning mechanisms and the contextual or domain knowledge extracted from event logs that record historical process execution. Findings drawn from this work are expected to serve as a key input to developing model reliability metrics and evaluation in the context of business process predictions.