Capturing Delayed Feedback in Conversion Rate Prediction via Elapsed-Time Sampling

Capturing Delayed Feedback in Conversion Rate Prediction via Elapsed-Time Sampling Hide abstract Conversion rate (CVR) prediction is one of the most critical tasks for digital display advertising. Commercial systems often require to update models in an online learning manner to catch up with the evolving data distribution. However, conversions usually do not happen immediately after a user click. This may result in inaccurate labeling, which is called delayed feedback problem. In previous studies, delayed feedback problem is handled either by waiting positive label for a long period of time, or by consuming the negative sample on its arrival and then insert a positive duplicate when a conversion happens later. Indeed, there is a trade-off between waiting for more accurate labels and utilizing fresh data, which is not considered in existing works. To strike a balance in this trade-off, we propose Elapsed-Time Sampling Delayed Feedback Model (ES-DFM), which models the relationship between the observed conversion distribution and the true conversion distribution. Then we optimize the expectation of true conversion distribution via importance sampling under the elapsed-time sampling distribution. We further estimate the importance weight for each instance, which is used as the weight of loss function in CVR prediction. To demonstrate the effectiveness of ES-DFM, we conduct extensive experiments on a public data and a private industrial dataset. Experimental results confirm that our method consistently outperforms the previous state-of-the-art results.

Active Generative Adversarial Network for Image Classification

Sufficient supervised information is crucial for any machine learning models to boost performance. However, labeling data is expensive and sometimes difficult to obtain. Active learning is an approach to acquire annotations for data from a human oracle by selecting informative samples with a high probability to enhance performance. In recent emerging studies, a generative adversarial network (GAN) has been integrated with active learning to generate good candidates to be presented to the oracle. In this paper, we propose a novel model that is able to obtain labels for data in a cheaper manner without the need to query an oracle. In the model, a novel reward for each sample is devised to measure the degree of uncertainty, which is obtained from a classifier trained with existing labeled data. This reward is used to guide a conditional GAN to generate informative samples with a higher probability for a certain label. With extensive evaluations, we have confirmed the effectiveness of the model, showing that the generated samples are capable of improving the classification performance in popular image classification tasks.