Identifying and Analyzing Cryptocurrency Manipulations in Social Media

Interest surrounding cryptocurrencies, digital or virtual currencies that are used as a medium for financial transactions, has grown tremendously in recent years. The anonymity surrounding these currencies makes investors particularly susceptible to fraud---such as "pump and dump" scams---where the goal is to artificially inflate the perceived worth of a currency, luring victims into investing before the fraudsters can sell their holdings. Because of the speed and relative anonymity offered by social platforms such as Twitter and Telegram, social media has become a preferred platform for scammers who wish to spread false hype about the cryptocurrency they are trying to pump. In this work we propose and evaluate a computational approach that can automatically identify pump and dump scams as they unfold by combining information across social media platforms. We also develop a multi-modal approach for predicting whether a particular pump attempt will succeed or not. Finally, we analyze the prevalence of bots in cryptocurrency related tweets, and observe a significant increase in bot activity during the pump attempts.

Invariant Representations without Adversarial Training

Representations of data that are invariant to changes in specified factors are useful for a wide range of problems: removing potential biases in prediction problems, controlling the effects of covariates, and disentangling meaningful factors of variation. Unfortunately, learning representations that exhibit invariance to arbitrary nuisance factors yet remain useful for other tasks is challenging. Existing approaches cast the trade-off between task performance and invariance in an adversarial way, using an iterative minimax optimization. We show that adversarial training is unnecessary and sometimes counter-productive; we instead cast invariant representation learning as a single information-theoretic objective that can be directly optimized. We demonstrate that this approach matches or exceeds performance of state-of-the-art adversarial approaches for learning fair representations and for generative modeling with controllable transformations.

Kernelized Hashcode Representations for Biomedical Relation Extraction

Kernel methods have produced state-of-the-art results for a number of NLP tasks such as relation extraction, but suffer from poor scalability due to the high cost of computing kernel similarities between discrete natural language structures. A recently proposed technique, kernelized locality-sensitive hashing (KLSH), can significantly reduce the computational cost, but is only applicable to classifiers operating on kNN graphs. Here we propose to use random subspaces of KLSH codes for efficiently constructing an explicit representation of NLP structures suitable for general classification methods. Further, we propose an approach for optimizing the KLSH model for classification problems by maximizing a variational lower bound on mutual information between the KLSH codes (feature vectors) and the class labels. We evaluate the proposed approach on biomedical relation extraction datasets, and observe significant and robust improvements in accuracy w.r.t. state-of-the-art classifiers, along with drastic (orders-of-magnitude) speedup compared to conventional kernel methods.

Dialogue Modeling Via Hash Functions

We propose a novel dialogue modeling framework which uses binary hashcodes as compressed text representations, allowing for efficient similarity search, and a novel lower bound on mutual information between the hashcodes of the two dialog agents, which serves as a model selection criterion for optimizing those representations towards better alignment between the dialog participants and higher predictability of one response from another, facilitating better dialog generation. Empirical evaluation on several datasets, from depression therapy sessions to Larry King TV show interviews and Twitter data, demonstrate that our hashing-based approach is competitive with state-of-art neural network based dialogue generation systems, often significantly outperforming them in terms of response quality and computational efficiency, especially on relatively small datasets.

A Forest Mixture Bound for Block-Free Parallel Inference

Coordinate ascent variational inference is an important algorithm for inference in probabilistic models, but it is slow because it updates only a single variable at a time. Block coordinate methods perform inference faster by updating blocks of variables in parallel. However, the speed and stability of these algorithms depends on how the variables are partitioned into blocks. In this paper, we give a stable parallel algorithm for inference in deep exponential families that doesn't require the variables to be partitioned into blocks. We achieve this by lower bounding the ELBO by a new objective we call the forest mixture bound (FM bound) that separates the inference problem for variables within a hidden layer. We apply this to the simple case when all random variables are Gaussian and show empirically that the algorithm converges faster for models that are inherently more forest-like.

Auto-Encoding Total Correlation Explanation

Advances in unsupervised learning enable reconstruction and generation of samples from complex distributions, but this success is marred by the inscrutability of the representations learned. We propose an information-theoretic approach to characterizing disentanglement and dependence in representation learning using multivariate mutual information, also called total correlation. The principle of total Cor-relation Ex-planation (CorEx) has motivated successful unsupervised learning applications across a variety of domains, but under some restrictive assumptions. Here we relax those restrictions by introducing a flexible variational lower bound to CorEx. Surprisingly, we find that this lower bound is equivalent to the one in variational autoencoders (VAE) under certain conditions. This information-theoretic view of VAE deepens our understanding of hierarchical VAE and motivates a new algorithm, AnchorVAE, that makes latent codes more interpretable through information maximization and enables generation of richer and more realistic samples.

Stochastic Learning of Nonstationary Kernels for Natural Language Modeling

Natural language processing often involves computations with semantic or syntactic graphs to facilitate sophisticated reasoning based on structural relationships. While convolution kernels provide a powerful tool for comparing graph structure based on node (word) level relationships, they are difficult to customize and can be computationally expensive. We propose a generalization of convolution kernels, with a nonstationary model, for better expressibility of natural languages in supervised settings. For a scalable learning of the parameters introduced with our model, we propose a novel algorithm that leverages stochastic sampling on k-nearest neighbor graphs, along with approximations based on locality-sensitive hashing. We demonstrate the advantages of our approach on a challenging real-world (structured inference) problem of automatically extracting biological models from the text of scientific papers.

Low Complexity Gaussian Latent Factor Models and a Blessing of Dimensionality

Learning the structure of graphical models from data usually incurs a heavy curse of dimensionality that renders this problem intractable in many real-world situations. The rare cases where the curse becomes a blessing provide insight into the limits of the efficiently computable and augment the scarce options for treating very under-sampled, high-dimensional data. We study a special class of Gaussian latent factor models where each (non-iid) observed variable depends on at most one of a set of latent variables. We derive information-theoretic lower bounds on the sample complexity for structure recovery that suggest complexity actually decreases as the dimensionality increases. Contrary to this prediction, we observe that existing structure recovery methods deteriorate with increasing dimension. Therefore, we design a new approach to learning Gaussian latent factor models that benefits from dimensionality. Our approach relies on an unconstrained information-theoretic objective whose global optima correspond to structured latent factor generative models. In addition to improved structure recovery, we also show that we are able to outperform state-of-the-art approaches for covariance estimation on both synthetic and real data in the very under-sampled, high-dimensional regime.

Disentangled Representations via Synergy Minimization

Scientists often seek simplified representations of complex systems to facilitate prediction and understanding. If the factors comprising a representation allow us to make accurate predictions about our system, but obscuring any subset of the factors destroys our ability to make predictions, we say that the representation exhibits informational synergy. We argue that synergy is an undesirable feature in learned representations and that explicitly minimizing synergy can help disentangle the true factors of variation underlying data. We explore different ways of quantifying synergy, deriving new closed-form expressions in some cases, and then show how to modify learning to produce representations that are minimally synergistic. We introduce a benchmark task to disentangle separate characters from images of words. We demonstrate that Minimally Synergistic (MinSyn) representations correctly disentangle characters while methods relying on statistical independence fail.

Unifying Local and Global Change Detection in Dynamic Networks

Many real-world networks are complex dynamical systems, where both local (e.g., changing node attributes) and global (e.g., changing network topology) processes unfold over time. Local dynamics may provoke global changes in the network, and the ability to detect such effects could have profound implications for a number of real-world problems. Most existing techniques focus individually on either local or global aspects of the problem or treat the two in isolation from each other. In this paper we propose a novel network model that simultaneously accounts for both local and global dynamics. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt at modeling and detecting local and global change points on dynamic networks via a unified generative framework. Our model is built upon the popular mixed membership stochastic blockmodels (MMSB) with sparse co-evolving patterns. We derive an efficient stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) sampler for our proposed model, which allows it to scale to potentially very large networks. Finally, we validate our model on both synthetic and real-world data and demonstrate its superiority over several baselines.