Early Detection of Multidrug Resistance Using Multivariate Time Series Analysis and Interpretable Patient-Similarity Representations

Background and Objectives: Multidrug Resistance (MDR) is a critical global health issue, causing increased hospital stays, healthcare costs, and mortality. This study proposes an interpretable Machine Learning (ML) framework for MDR prediction, aiming for both accurate inference and enhanced explainability. Methods: Patients are modeled as Multivariate Time Series (MTS), capturing clinical progression and patient-to-patient interactions. Similarity among patients is quantified using MTS-based methods: descriptive statistics, Dynamic Time Warping, and Time Cluster Kernel. These similarity measures serve as inputs for MDR classification via Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machines, with dimensionality reduction and kernel transformations improving model performance. For explainability, patient similarity networks are constructed from these metrics. Spectral clustering and t-SNE are applied to identify MDR-related subgroups and visualize high-risk clusters, enabling insight into clinically relevant patterns. Results: The framework was validated on ICU Electronic Health Records from the University Hospital of Fuenlabrada, achieving an AUC of 81%. It outperforms baseline ML and deep learning models by leveraging graph-based patient similarity. The approach identifies key risk factors -- prolonged antibiotic use, invasive procedures, co-infections, and extended ICU stays -- and reveals clinically meaningful clusters. Code and results are available at \https://github.com/oscarescuderoarnanz/DM4MTS. Conclusions: Patient similarity representations combined with graph-based analysis provide accurate MDR prediction and interpretable insights. This method supports early detection, risk factor identification, and patient stratification, highlighting the potential of explainable ML in critical care.

Matched Topological Subspace Detector

Topological spaces, represented by simplicial complexes, capture richer relationships than graphs by modeling interactions not only between nodes but also among higher-order entities, such as edges or triangles. This motivates the representation of information defined in irregular domains as topological signals. By leveraging the spectral dualities of Hodge and Dirac theory, practical topological signals often concentrate in specific spectral subspaces (e.g., gradient or curl). For instance, in a foreign currency exchange network, the exchange flow signals typically satisfy the arbitrage-free condition and hence are curl-free. However, the presence of anomalies can disrupt these conditions, causing the signals to deviate from such subspaces. In this work, we formulate a hypothesis testing framework to detect whether simplicial complex signals lie in specific subspaces in a principled and tractable manner. Concretely, we propose Neyman-Pearson matched topological subspace detectors for signals defined at a single simplicial level (such as edges) or jointly across all levels of a simplicial complex. The (energy-based projection) proposed detectors handle missing values, provide closed-form performance analysis, and effectively capture the unique topological properties of the data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed topological detectors on various real-world data, including foreign currency exchange networks.

Enhancing Graphical Lasso: A Robust Scheme for Non-Stationary Mean Data

This work addresses the problem of graph learning from data following a Gaussian Graphical Model (GGM) with a time-varying mean. Graphical Lasso (GL), the standard method for estimating sparse precision matrices, assumes that the observed data follows a zero-mean Gaussian distribution. However, this assumption is often violated in real-world scenarios where the mean evolves over time due to external influences, trends, or regime shifts. When the mean is not properly accounted for, applying GL directly can lead to estimating a biased precision matrix, hence hindering the graph learning task. To overcome this limitation, we propose Graphical Lasso with Adaptive Targeted Adaptive Importance Sampling (GL-ATAIS), an iterative method that jointly estimates the time-varying mean and the precision matrix. Our approach integrates Bayesian inference with frequentist estimation, leveraging importance sampling to obtain an estimate of the mean while using a regularized maximum likelihood estimator to infer the precision matrix. By iteratively refining both estimates, GL-ATAIS mitigates the bias introduced by time-varying means, leading to more accurate graph recovery. Our numerical evaluation demonstrates the impact of properly accounting for time-dependent means and highlights the advantages of GL-ATAIS over standard GL in recovering the true graph structure.

An MDP Model for Censoring in Harvesting Sensors: Optimal and Approximated Solutions

In this paper, we propose a novel censoring policy for energy-efficient transmissions in energy-harvesting sensors. The problem is formulated as an infinite-horizon Markov Decision Process (MDP). The objective to be optimized is the expected sum of the importance (utility) of all transmitted messages. Assuming that such importance can be evaluated at the transmitting node, we show that, under certain conditions on the battery model, the optimal censoring policy is a threshold function on the importance value. Specifically, messages are transmitted only if their importance is above a threshold whose value depends on the battery level. Exploiting this property, we propose a model-based stochastic scheme that approximates the optimal solution, with less computational complexity and faster convergence speed than a conventional Q-learning algorithm. Numerical experiments in single-hop and multi-hop networks confirm the analytical advantages of the proposed scheme.

A Tensor Low-Rank Approximation for Value Functions in Multi-Task Reinforcement Learning

In pursuit of reinforcement learning systems that could train in physical environments, we investigate multi-task approaches as a means to alleviate the need for massive data acquisition. In a tabular scenario where the Q-functions are collected across tasks, we model our learning problem as optimizing a higher order tensor structure. Recognizing that close-related tasks may require similar actions, our proposed method imposes a low-rank condition on this aggregated Q-tensor. The rationale behind this approach to multi-task learning is that the low-rank structure enforces the notion of similarity, without the need to explicitly prescribe which tasks are similar, but inferring this information from a reduced amount of data simultaneously with the stochastic optimization of the Q-tensor. The efficiency of our low-rank tensor approach to multi-task learning is demonstrated in two numerical experiments, first in a benchmark environment formed by a collection of inverted pendulums, and then into a practical scenario involving multiple wireless communication devices.

Solving Finite-Horizon MDPs via Low-Rank Tensors

We study the problem of learning optimal policies in finite-horizon Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) using low-rank reinforcement learning (RL) methods. In finite-horizon MDPs, the policies, and therefore the value functions (VFs) are not stationary. This aggravates the challenges of high-dimensional MDPs, as they suffer from the curse of dimensionality and high sample complexity. To address these issues, we propose modeling the VFs of finite-horizon MDPs as low-rank tensors, enabling a scalable representation that renders the problem of learning optimal policies tractable. We introduce an optimization-based framework for solving the Bellman equations with low-rank constraints, along with block-coordinate descent (BCD) and block-coordinate gradient descent (BCGD) algorithms, both with theoretical convergence guarantees. For scenarios where the system dynamics are unknown, we adapt the proposed BCGD method to estimate the VFs using sampled trajectories. Numerical experiments further demonstrate that the proposed framework reduces computational demands in controlled synthetic scenarios and more realistic resource allocation problems.

Multilinear Tensor Low-Rank Approximation for Policy-Gradient Methods in Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) aims to estimate the action to take given a (time-varying) state, with the goal of maximizing a cumulative reward function. Predominantly, there are two families of algorithms to solve RL problems: value-based and policy-based methods, with the latter designed to learn a probabilistic parametric policy from states to actions. Most contemporary approaches implement this policy using a neural network (NN). However, NNs usually face issues related to convergence, architectural suitability, hyper-parameter selection, and underutilization of the redundancies of the state-action representations (e.g. locally similar states). This paper postulates multi-linear mappings to efficiently estimate the parameters of the RL policy. More precisely, we leverage the PARAFAC decomposition to design tensor low-rank policies. The key idea involves collecting the policy parameters into a tensor and leveraging tensor-completion techniques to enforce low rank. We establish theoretical guarantees of the proposed methods for various policy classes and validate their efficacy through numerical experiments. Specifically, we demonstrate that tensor low-rank policy models reduce computational and sample complexities in comparison to NN models while achieving similar rewards.

Structure-Guided Input Graph for GNNs facing Heterophily

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a promising tool to handle data exhibiting an irregular structure. However, most GNN architectures perform well on homophilic datasets, where the labels of neighboring nodes are likely to be the same. In recent years, an increasing body of work has been devoted to the development of GNN architectures for heterophilic datasets, where labels do not exhibit this low-pass behavior. In this work, we create a new graph in which nodes are connected if they share structural characteristics, meaning a higher chance of sharing their labels, and then use this new graph in the GNN architecture. To do this, we compute the k-nearest neighbors graph according to distances between structural features, which are either (i) role-based, such as degree, or (ii) global, such as centrality measures. Experiments show that the labels are smoother in this newly defined graph and that the performance of GNN architectures improves when using this alternative structure.

Exploiting the Structure of Two Graphs with Graph Neural Networks

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have emerged as a promising solution to deal with unstructured data, outperforming traditional deep learning architectures. However, most of the current GNN models are designed to work with a single graph, which limits their applicability in many real-world scenarios where multiple graphs may be involved. To address this limitation, we propose a novel graph-based deep learning architecture to handle tasks where two sets of signals exist, each defined on a different graph. First we consider the setting where the input is represented as a signal on top of one graph (input graph) and the output is a graph signal defined over a different graph (output graph). For this setup, we propose a three-block architecture where we first process the input data using a GNN that operates over the input graph, then apply a transformation function that operates in a latent space and maps the signals from the input to the output graph, and finally implement a second GNN that operates over the output graph. Our goal is not to propose a single specific definition for each of the three blocks, but rather to provide a flexible approach to solve tasks involving data defined on two graphs. The second part of the paper addresses a self-supervised setup, where the focus is not on the output space but on the underlying latent space and, inspired by Canonical Correlation Analysis, we seek informative representations of the data that can be leveraged to solve a downstream task. By leveraging information from multiple graphs, the proposed architecture can capture more intricate relationships between different entities in the data. We test this in several experimental setups using synthetic and real world datasets, and observe that the proposed architecture works better than traditional deep learning architectures, showcasing the importance of leveraging the information of the two graphs.

Low-Rank Tensors for Multi-Dimensional Markov Models

This work presents a low-rank tensor model for multi-dimensional Markov chains. A common approach to simplify the dynamical behavior of a Markov chain is to impose low-rankness on the transition probability matrix. Inspired by the success of these matrix techniques, we present low-rank tensors for representing transition probabilities on multi-dimensional state spaces. Through tensor decomposition, we provide a connection between our method and classical probabilistic models. Moreover, our proposed model yields a parsimonious representation with fewer parameters than matrix-based approaches. Unlike these methods, which impose low-rankness uniformly across all states, our tensor method accounts for the multi-dimensionality of the state space. We also propose an optimization-based approach to estimate a Markov model as a low-rank tensor. Our optimization problem can be solved by the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM), which enjoys convergence to a stationary solution. We empirically demonstrate that our tensor model estimates Markov chains more efficiently than conventional techniques, requiring both fewer samples and parameters. We perform numerical simulations for both a synthetic low-rank Markov chain and a real-world example with New York City taxi data, showcasing the advantages of multi-dimensionality for modeling state spaces.