Prediction of Grade, Gender, and Academic Performance of Children and Teenagers from Handwriting Using the Sigma-Lognormal Model

Digital handwriting acquisition enables the capture of detailed temporal and kinematic signals reflecting the motor processes underlying writing behavior. While handwriting analysis has been extensively explored in clinical or adult populations, its potential for studying developmental and educational characteristics in children remains less investigated. In this work, we examine whether handwriting dynamics encode information related to student characteristics using a large-scale online dataset collected from Japanese students from elementary school to junior high school. We systematically compare three families of handwriting-derived features: basic statistical descriptors of kinematic signals, entropy-based measures of variability, and parameters obtained from the sigma-lognormal model. Although the dataset contains dense stroke-level recordings, features are aggregated at the student level to enable a controlled comparison between representations. These features are evaluated across three prediction tasks: grade prediction, gender classification, and academic performance classification, using Linear or Logistic Regression and Random Forest models under consistent experimental settings. The results show that handwriting dynamics contain measurable signals related to developmental stage and individual differences, especially for the grade prediction task. These findings highlight the potential of kinematic handwriting analysis and confirm that through their development, children's handwriting evolves toward a lognormal motor organization.

From Pen Strokes to Sleep States: Detecting Low-Recovery Days Using Sigma-Lognormal Handwriting Features

While handwriting has traditionally been studied for character recognition and disease classification, its potential to reflect day-to-day physiological fluctuations in healthy individuals remains unexplored. This study examines whether daily variations in sleep-related recovery states can be inferred from online handwriting dynamics. % We propose a personalized binary classification framework that detects low-recovery days using features derived from the Sigma-Lognormal model, which captures the neuromotor generation process of pen strokes. In a 28-day in-the-wild study involving 13 university students, handwriting was recorded three times daily, and nocturnal cardiac indicators were measured using a wearable ring. For each participant, the lowest (or highest) quartile of four sleep-related metrics -- HRV, lowest heart rate, average heart rate, and total sleep duration -- defined the positive class. Leave-One-Day-Out cross-validation showed that PR-AUC significantly exceeded the baseline (0.25) for all four variables after FDR correction, with the strongest performance observed for cardiac-related variables. Importantly, classification performance did not differ significantly across task types or recording timings, indicating that recovery-related signals are embedded in general movement dynamics. These results demonstrate that subtle within-person autonomic recovery fluctuations can be detected from everyday handwriting, opening a new direction for non-invasive, device-independent health monitoring.

How many patients could we save with LLM priors?

Imagine a world where clinical trials need far fewer patients to achieve the same statistical power, thanks to the knowledge encoded in large language models (LLMs). We present a novel framework for hierarchical Bayesian modeling of adverse events in multi-center clinical trials, leveraging LLM-informed prior distributions. Unlike data augmentation approaches that generate synthetic data points, our methodology directly obtains parametric priors from the model. Our approach systematically elicits informative priors for hyperparameters in hierarchical Bayesian models using a pre-trained LLM, enabling the incorporation of external clinical expertise directly into Bayesian safety modeling. Through comprehensive temperature sensitivity analysis and rigorous cross-validation on real-world clinical trial data, we demonstrate that LLM-derived priors consistently improve predictive performance compared to traditional meta-analytical approaches. This methodology paves the way for more efficient and expert-informed clinical trial design, enabling substantial reductions in the number of patients required to achieve robust safety assessment and with the potential to transform drug safety monitoring and regulatory decision making.