Quantitative knowledge retrieval from large language models

Large language models (LLMs) have been extensively studied for their abilities to generate convincing natural language sequences, however their utility for quantitative information retrieval is less well understood. In this paper we explore the feasibility of LLMs as a mechanism for quantitative knowledge retrieval to aid data analysis tasks such as elicitation of prior distributions for Bayesian models and imputation of missing data. We present a prompt engineering framework, treating an LLM as an interface to a latent space of scientific literature, comparing responses in different contexts and domains against more established approaches. Implications and challenges of using LLMs as 'experts' are discussed.

X Hacking: The Threat of Misguided AutoML

Explainable AI (XAI) and interpretable machine learning methods help to build trust in model predictions and derived insights, yet also present a perverse incentive for analysts to manipulate XAI metrics to support pre-specified conclusions. This paper introduces the concept of X-hacking, a form of p-hacking applied to XAI metrics such as Shap values. We show how an automated machine learning pipeline can be used to search for 'defensible' models that produce a desired explanation while maintaining superior predictive performance to a common baseline. We formulate the trade-off between explanation and accuracy as a multi-objective optimization problem and illustrate the feasibility and severity of X-hacking empirically on familiar real-world datasets. Finally, we suggest possible methods for detection and prevention, and discuss ethical implications for the credibility and reproducibility of XAI research.