Graph-based Virtual Sensing from Sparse and Partial Multivariate Observations

Virtual sensing techniques allow for inferring signals at new unmonitored locations by exploiting spatio-temporal measurements coming from physical sensors at different locations. However, as the sensor coverage becomes sparse due to costs or other constraints, physical proximity cannot be used to support interpolation. In this paper, we overcome this challenge by leveraging dependencies between the target variable and a set of correlated variables (covariates) that can frequently be associated with each location of interest. From this viewpoint, covariates provide partial observability, and the problem consists of inferring values for unobserved channels by exploiting observations at other locations to learn how such variables can correlate. We introduce a novel graph-based methodology to exploit such relationships and design a graph deep learning architecture, named GgNet, implementing the framework. The proposed approach relies on propagating information over a nested graph structure that is used to learn dependencies between variables as well as locations. GgNet is extensively evaluated under different virtual sensing scenarios, demonstrating higher reconstruction accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art.

Graph-based Forecasting with Missing Data through Spatiotemporal Downsampling

Given a set of synchronous time series, each associated with a sensor-point in space and characterized by inter-series relationships, the problem of spatiotemporal forecasting consists of predicting future observations for each point. Spatiotemporal graph neural networks achieve striking results by representing the relationships across time series as a graph. Nonetheless, most existing methods rely on the often unrealistic assumption that inputs are always available and fail to capture hidden spatiotemporal dynamics when part of the data is missing. In this work, we tackle this problem through hierarchical spatiotemporal downsampling. The input time series are progressively coarsened over time and space, obtaining a pool of representations that capture heterogeneous temporal and spatial dynamics. Conditioned on observations and missing data patterns, such representations are combined by an interpretable attention mechanism to generate the forecasts. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-world benchmarks under different missing data distributions, particularly in the presence of contiguous blocks of missing values.

Graph Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting

Graph-based deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Differently from traditional multivariate forecasting methods, neural graph-based predictors take advantage of pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on a (possibly dynamic) graph spanning the time series collection. The conditioning can take the form of an architectural inductive bias on the neural forecasting architecture, resulting in a family of deep learning models called spatiotemporal graph neural networks. Such relational inductive biases enable the training of global forecasting models on large time-series collections, while at the same time localizing predictions w.r.t. each element in the set (i.e., graph nodes) by accounting for local correlations among them (i.e., graph edges). Indeed, recent theoretical and practical advances in graph neural networks and deep learning for time series forecasting make the adoption of such processing frameworks appealing and timely. However, most of the studies in the literature focus on proposing variations of existing neural architectures by taking advantage of modern deep learning practices, while foundational and methodological aspects have not been subject to systematic investigation. To fill the gap, this paper aims to introduce a comprehensive methodological framework that formalizes the forecasting problem and provides design principles for graph-based predictive models and methods to assess their performance. At the same time, together with an overview of the field, we provide design guidelines, recommendations, and best practices, as well as an in-depth discussion of open challenges and future research directions.

A Survey on Graph Neural Networks for Time Series: Forecasting, Classification, Imputation, and Anomaly Detection

Time series are the primary data type used to record dynamic system measurements and generated in great volume by both physical sensors and online processes (virtual sensors). Time series analytics is therefore crucial to unlocking the wealth of information implicit in available data. With the recent advancements in graph neural networks (GNNs), there has been a surge in GNN-based approaches for time series analysis. Approaches can explicitly model inter-temporal and inter-variable relationships, which traditional and other deep neural network-based methods struggle to do. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of graph neural networks for time series analysis (GNN4TS), encompassing four fundamental dimensions: Forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. Our aim is to guide designers and practitioners to understand, build applications, and advance research of GNN4TS. At first, we provide a comprehensive task-oriented taxonomy of GNN4TS. Then, we present and discuss representative research works and, finally, discuss mainstream applications of GNN4TS. A comprehensive discussion of potential future research directions completes the survey. This survey, for the first time, brings together a vast array of knowledge on GNN-based time series research, highlighting both the foundations, practical applications, and opportunities of graph neural networks for time series analysis.

Graph-based Time Series Clustering for End-to-End Hierarchical Forecasting

Existing relationships among time series can be exploited as inductive biases in learning effective forecasting models. In hierarchical time series, relationships among subsets of sequences induce hard constraints (hierarchical inductive biases) on the predicted values. In this paper, we propose a graph-based methodology to unify relational and hierarchical inductive biases in the context of deep learning for time series forecasting. In particular, we model both types of relationships as dependencies in a pyramidal graph structure, with each pyramidal layer corresponding to a level of the hierarchy. By exploiting modern - trainable - graph pooling operators we show that the hierarchical structure, if not available as a prior, can be learned directly from data, thus obtaining cluster assignments aligned with the forecasting objective. A differentiable reconciliation stage is incorporated into the processing architecture, allowing hierarchical constraints to act both as an architectural bias as well as a regularization element for predictions. Simulation results on representative datasets show that the proposed method compares favorably against the state of the art.

Feudal Graph Reinforcement Learning

We focus on learning composable policies to control a variety of physical agents with possibly different structures. Among state-of-the-art methods, prominent approaches exploit graph-based representations and weight-sharing modular policies based on the message-passing framework. However, as shown by recent literature, message passing can create bottlenecks in information propagation and hinder global coordination. This drawback can become even more problematic in tasks where high-level planning is crucial. In fact, in similar scenarios, each modular policy - e.g., controlling a joint of a robot - would request to coordinate not only for basic locomotion but also achieve high-level goals, such as navigating a maze. A classical solution to avoid similar pitfalls is to resort to hierarchical decision-making. In this work, we adopt the Feudal Reinforcement Learning paradigm to develop agents where control actions are the outcome of a hierarchical (pyramidal) message-passing process. In the proposed Feudal Graph Reinforcement Learning (FGRL) framework, high-level decisions at the top level of the hierarchy are propagated through a layered graph representing a hierarchy of policies. Lower layers mimic the morphology of the physical system and upper layers can capture more abstract sub-modules. The purpose of this preliminary work is to formalize the framework and provide proof-of-concept experiments on benchmark environments (MuJoCo locomotion tasks). Empirical evaluation shows promising results on both standard benchmarks and zero-shot transfer learning settings.

Relational Inductive Biases for Object-Centric Image Generation

Conditioning image generation on specific features of the desired output is a key ingredient of modern generative models. Most existing approaches focus on conditioning the generation based on free-form text, while some niche studies use scene graphs to describe the content of the image to be generated. This paper explores novel methods to condition image generation that are based on object-centric relational representations. In particular, we propose a methodology to condition the generation of a particular object in an image on the attributed graph representing its structure and associated style. We show that such architectural biases entail properties that facilitate the manipulation and conditioning of the generative process and allow for regularizing the training procedure. The proposed framework is implemented by means of a neural network architecture combining convolutional operators that operate on both the underlying graph and the 2D grid that becomes the output image. The resulting model learns to generate multi-channel masks of the object that can be used as a soft inductive bias in the downstream generative task. Empirical results show that the proposed approach compares favorably against relevant baselines on image generation conditioned on human poses.

Graph Kalman Filters

The well-known Kalman filters model dynamical systems by relying on state-space representations with the next state updated, and its uncertainty controlled, by fresh information associated with newly observed system outputs. This paper generalizes, for the first time in the literature, Kalman and extended Kalman filters to discrete-time settings where inputs, states, and outputs are represented as attributed graphs whose topology and attributes can change with time. The setup allows us to adapt the framework to cases where the output is a vector or a scalar too (node/graph level tasks). Within the proposed theoretical framework, the unknown state-transition and the readout functions are learned end-to-end along with the downstream prediction task.

Taming Local Effects in Graph-based Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Spatiotemporal graph neural networks have shown to be effective in time series forecasting applications, achieving better performance than standard univariate predictors in several settings. These architectures take advantage of a graph structure and relational inductive biases to learn a single (global) inductive model to predict any number of the input time series, each associated with a graph node. Despite the gain achieved in computational and data efficiency w.r.t. fitting a set of local models, relying on a single global model can be a limitation whenever some of the time series are generated by a different spatiotemporal stochastic process. The main objective of this paper is to understand the interplay between globality and locality in graph-based spatiotemporal forecasting, while contextually proposing a methodological framework to rationalize the practice of including trainable node embeddings in such architectures. We ascribe to trainable node embeddings the role of amortizing the learning of specialized components. Moreover, embeddings allow for 1) effectively combining the advantages of shared message-passing layers with node-specific parameters and 2) efficiently transferring the learned model to new node sets. Supported by strong empirical evidence, we provide insights and guidelines for specializing graph-based models to the dynamics of each time series and show how this aspect plays a crucial role in obtaining accurate predictions.

Where and How to Improve Graph-based Spatio-temporal Predictors

This paper introduces a novel residual correlation analysis, called AZ-analysis, to assess the optimality of spatio-temporal predictive models. The proposed AZ-analysis constitutes a valuable asset for discovering and highlighting those space-time regions where the model can be improved with respect to performance. The AZ-analysis operates under very mild assumptions and is based on a spatio-temporal graph that encodes serial and functional dependencies in the data; asymptotically distribution-free summary statistics identify existing residual correlation in space and time regions, hence localizing time frames and/or communities of sensors, where the predictor can be improved.