SimGym: Traffic-Grounded Browser Agents for Offline A/B Testing in E-Commerce

A/B testing remains the gold standard for evaluating e-commerce UI changes, yet it diverts traffic, takes weeks to reach significance, and risks harming user experience. We introduce SimGym, a scalable system for rapid offline A/B testing using traffic-grounded synthetic buyers powered by Large Language Model agents operating in a live browser. SimGym extracts per-shop buyer profiles and intents from production interaction data, identifies distinct behavioral archetypes, and simulates cohort-weighted sessions across control and treatment storefronts. We validate SimGym against real human outcomes from real UI changes on a major e-commerce platform under confounder control. Even without alignment post training, SimGym agents achieve state of the art alignment with observed outcome shifts and reduces experiment cycles from weeks to under an hour , enabling rapid experimentation without exposure to real buyers.

Sequential Advantage Selection for Optimal Treatment Regimes

Variable selection for optimal treatment regime in a clinical trial or an observational study is getting more attention. Most existing variable selection techniques focused on selecting variables that are important for prediction, therefore some variables that are poor in prediction but are critical for decision-making may be ignored. A qualitative interaction of a variable with treatment arises when treatment effect changes direction as the value of this variable varies. The qualitative interaction indicates the importance of this variable for decision-making. Gunter et al. (2011) proposed S-score which characterizes the magnitude of qualitative interaction of each variable with treatment individually. In this article, we developed a sequential advantage selection method based on the modified S-score. Our method selects qualitatively interacted variables sequentially, and hence excludes marginally important but jointly unimportant variables {or vice versa}. The optimal treatment regime based on variables selected via joint model is more comprehensive and reliable. With the proposed stopping criteria, our method can handle a large amount of covariates even if sample size is small. Simulation results show our method performs well in practical settings. We further applied our method to data from a clinical trial for depression.