MAP4TS: A Multi-Aspect Prompting Framework for Time-Series Forecasting with Large Language Models

Recent advances have investigated the use of pretrained large language models (LLMs) for time-series forecasting by aligning numerical inputs with LLM embedding spaces. However, existing multimodal approaches often overlook the distinct statistical properties and temporal dependencies that are fundamental to time-series data. To bridge this gap, we propose MAP4TS, a novel Multi-Aspect Prompting Framework that explicitly incorporates classical time-series analysis into the prompt design. Our framework introduces four specialized prompt components: a Global Domain Prompt that conveys dataset-level context, a Local Domain Prompt that encodes recent trends and series-specific behaviors, and a pair of Statistical and Temporal Prompts that embed handcrafted insights derived from autocorrelation (ACF), partial autocorrelation (PACF), and Fourier analysis. Multi-Aspect Prompts are combined with raw time-series embeddings and passed through a cross-modality alignment module to produce unified representations, which are then processed by an LLM and projected for final forecasting. Extensive experiments across eight diverse datasets show that MAP4TS consistently outperforms state-of-the-art LLM-based methods. Our ablation studies further reveal that prompt-aware designs significantly enhance performance stability and that GPT-2 backbones, when paired with structured prompts, outperform larger models like LLaMA in long-term forecasting tasks.

Spectral Predictability as a Fast Reliability Indicator for Time Series Forecasting Model Selection

Practitioners deploying time series forecasting models face a dilemma: exhaustively validating dozens of models is computationally prohibitive, yet choosing the wrong model risks poor performance. We show that spectral predictability~$Ω$ -- a simple signal processing metric -- systematically stratifies model family performance, enabling fast model selection. We conduct controlled experiments in four different domains, then further expand our analysis to 51 models and 28 datasets from the GIFT-Eval benchmark. We find that large time series foundation models (TSFMs) systematically outperform lightweight task-trained baselines when $Ω$ is high, while their advantage vanishes as $Ω$ drops. Computing $Ω$ takes seconds per dataset, enabling practitioners to quickly assess whether their data suits TSFM approaches or whether simpler, cheaper models suffice. We demonstrate that $Ω$ stratifies model performance predictably, offering a practical first-pass filter that reduces validation costs while highlighting the need for models that excel on genuinely difficult (low-$Ω$) problems rather than merely optimizing easy ones.

Towards Causal Market Simulators

Market generators using deep generative models have shown promise for synthetic financial data generation, but existing approaches lack causal reasoning capabilities essential for counterfactual analysis and risk assessment. We propose a Time-series Neural Causal Model VAE (TNCM-VAE) that combines variational autoencoders with structural causal models to generate counterfactual financial time series while preserving both temporal dependencies and causal relationships. Our approach enforces causal constraints through directed acyclic graphs in the decoder architecture and employs the causal Wasserstein distance for training. We validate our method on synthetic autoregressive models inspired by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, demonstrating superior performance in counterfactual probability estimation with L1 distances as low as 0.03-0.10 compared to ground truth. The model enables financial stress testing, scenario analysis, and enhanced backtesting by generating plausible counterfactual market trajectories that respect underlying causal mechanisms.

Optimal Look-back Horizon for Time Series Forecasting in Federated Learning

Selecting an appropriate look-back horizon remains a fundamental challenge in time series forecasting (TSF), particularly in the federated learning scenarios where data is decentralized, heterogeneous, and often non-independent. While recent work has explored horizon selection by preserving forecasting-relevant information in an intrinsic space, these approaches are primarily restricted to centralized and independently distributed settings. This paper presents a principled framework for adaptive horizon selection in federated time series forecasting through an intrinsic space formulation. We introduce a synthetic data generator (SDG) that captures essential temporal structures in client data, including autoregressive dependencies, seasonality, and trend, while incorporating client-specific heterogeneity. Building on this model, we define a transformation that maps time series windows into an intrinsic representation space with well-defined geometric and statistical properties. We then derive a decomposition of the forecasting loss into a Bayesian term, which reflects irreducible uncertainty, and an approximation term, which accounts for finite-sample effects and limited model capacity. Our analysis shows that while increasing the look-back horizon improves the identifiability of deterministic patterns, it also increases approximation error due to higher model complexity and reduced sample efficiency. We prove that the total forecasting loss is minimized at the smallest horizon where the irreducible loss starts to saturate, while the approximation loss continues to rise. This work provides a rigorous theoretical foundation for adaptive horizon selection for time series forecasting in federated learning.

MedFuse: Multiplicative Embedding Fusion For Irregular Clinical Time Series

Clinical time series derived from electronic health records (EHRs) are inherently irregular, with asynchronous sampling, missing values, and heterogeneous feature dynamics. While numerical laboratory measurements are highly informative, existing embedding strategies usually combine feature identity and value embeddings through additive operations, which constrains their ability to capture value-dependent feature interactions. We propose MedFuse, a framework for irregular clinical time series centered on the MuFuse (Multiplicative Embedding Fusion) module. MuFuse fuses value and feature embeddings through multiplicative modulation, preserving feature-specific information while modeling higher-order dependencies across features. Experiments on three real-world datasets covering both intensive and chronic care show that MedFuse consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on key predictive tasks. Analysis of the learned representations further demonstrates that multiplicative fusion enhances expressiveness and supports cross-dataset pretraining. These results establish MedFuse as a generalizable approach for modeling irregular clinical time series.

Multivariate Time series Anomaly Detection:A Framework of Hidden Markov Models

In this study, we develop an approach to multivariate time series anomaly detection focused on the transformation of multivariate time series to univariate time series. Several transformation techniques involving Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering and fuzzy integral are studied. In the sequel, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), one of the commonly encountered statistical methods, is engaged here to detect anomalies in multivariate time series. We construct HMM-based anomaly detectors and in this context compare several transformation methods. A suite of experimental studies along with some comparative analysis is reported.

Unsupervised Anomaly Prediction with N-BEATS and Graph Neural Network in Multi-variate Semiconductor Process Time Series

Semiconductor manufacturing is an extremely complex and precision-driven process, characterized by thousands of interdependent parameters collected across diverse tools and process steps. Multi-variate time-series analysis has emerged as a critical field for real-time monitoring and fault detection in such environments. However, anomaly prediction in semiconductor fabrication presents several critical challenges, including high dimensionality of sensor data and severe class imbalance due to the rarity of true faults. Furthermore, the complex interdependencies between variables complicate both anomaly prediction and root-cause-analysis. This paper proposes two novel approaches to advance the field from anomaly detection to anomaly prediction, an essential step toward enabling real-time process correction and proactive fault prevention. The proposed anomaly prediction framework contains two main stages: (a) training a forecasting model on a dataset assumed to contain no anomalies, and (b) performing forecast on unseen time series data. The forecast is compared with the forecast of the trained signal. Deviations beyond a predefined threshold are flagged as anomalies. The two approaches differ in the forecasting model employed. The first assumes independence between variables by utilizing the N-BEATS model for univariate time series forecasting. The second lifts this assumption by utilizing a Graph Neural Network (GNN) to capture inter-variable relationships. Both models demonstrate strong forecasting performance up to a horizon of 20 time points and maintain stable anomaly prediction up to 50 time points. The GNN consistently outperforms the N-BEATS model while requiring significantly fewer trainable parameters and lower computational cost. These results position the GNN as promising solution for online anomaly forecasting to be deployed in manufacturing environments.

No Intelligence Without Statistics: The Invisible Backbone of Artificial Intelligence

The rapid ascent of artificial intelligence (AI) is often portrayed as a revolution born from computer science and engineering. This narrative, however, obscures a fundamental truth: the theoretical and methodological core of AI is, and has always been, statistical. This paper systematically argues that the field of statistics provides the indispensable foundation for machine learning and modern AI. We deconstruct AI into nine foundational pillars-Inference, Density Estimation, Sequential Learning, Generalization, Representation Learning, Interpretability, Causality, Optimization, and Unification-demonstrating that each is built upon century-old statistical principles. From the inferential frameworks of hypothesis testing and estimation that underpin model evaluation, to the density estimation roots of clustering and generative AI; from the time-series analysis inspiring recurrent networks to the causal models that promise true understanding, we trace an unbroken statistical lineage. While celebrating the computational engines that power modern AI, we contend that statistics provides the brain-the theoretical frameworks, uncertainty quantification, and inferential goals-while computer science provides the brawn-the scalable algorithms and hardware. Recognizing this statistical backbone is not merely an academic exercise, but a necessary step for developing more robust, interpretable, and trustworthy intelligent systems. We issue a call to action for education, research, and practice to re-embrace this statistical foundation. Ignoring these roots risks building a fragile future; embracing them is the path to truly intelligent machines. There is no machine learning without statistical learning; no artificial intelligence without statistical thought.

SurvBench: A Standardised Preprocessing Pipeline for Multi-Modal Electronic Health Record Survival Analysis

Electronic health record (EHR) data present tremendous opportunities for advancing survival analysis through deep learning, yet reproducibility remains severely constrained by inconsistent preprocessing methodologies. We present SurvBench, a comprehensive, open-source preprocessing pipeline that transforms raw PhysioNet datasets into standardised, model-ready tensors for multi-modal survival analysis. SurvBench provides data loaders for three major critical care databases, MIMIC-IV, eICU, and MC-MED, supporting diverse modalities including time-series vitals, static demographics, ICD diagnosis codes, and radiology reports. The pipeline implements rigorous data quality controls, patient-level splitting to prevent data leakage, explicit missingness tracking, and standardised temporal aggregation. SurvBench handles both single-risk (e.g., in-hospital mortality) and competing-risks scenarios (e.g., multiple discharge outcomes). The outputs are compatible with pycox library packages and implementations of standard statistical and deep learning models. By providing reproducible, configuration-driven preprocessing with comprehensive documentation, SurvBench addresses the "preprocessing gap" that has hindered fair comparison of deep learning survival models, enabling researchers to focus on methodological innovation rather than data engineering.

Generalist vs Specialist Time Series Foundation Models: Investigating Potential Emergent Behaviors in Assessing Human Health Using PPG Signals

Foundation models are large-scale machine learning models that are pre-trained on massive amounts of data and can be adapted for various downstream tasks. They have been extensively applied to tasks in Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision with models such as GPT, BERT, and CLIP. They are now also increasingly gaining attention in time-series analysis, particularly for physiological sensing. However, most time series foundation models are specialist models - with data in pre-training and testing of the same type, such as Electrocardiogram, Electroencephalogram, and Photoplethysmogram (PPG). Recent works, such as MOMENT, train a generalist time series foundation model with data from multiple domains, such as weather, traffic, and electricity. This paper aims to conduct a comprehensive benchmarking study to compare the performance of generalist and specialist models, with a focus on PPG signals. Through an extensive suite of total 51 tasks covering cardiac state assessment, laboratory value estimation, and cross-modal inference, we comprehensively evaluate both models across seven dimensions, including win score, average performance, feature quality, tuning gain, performance variance, transferability, and scalability. These metrics jointly capture not only the models' capability but also their adaptability, robustness, and efficiency under different fine-tuning strategies, providing a holistic understanding of their strengths and limitations for diverse downstream scenarios. In a full-tuning scenario, we demonstrate that the specialist model achieves a 27% higher win score. Finally, we provide further analysis on generalization, fairness, attention visualizations, and the importance of training data choice.