A Novel approach to portfolio construction

This paper proposes a machine learning-based framework for asset selection and portfolio construction, termed the Best-Path Algorithm Sparse Graphical Model (BPASGM). The method extends the Best-Path Algorithm (BPA) by mapping linear and non-linear dependencies among a large set of financial assets into a sparse graphical model satisfying a structural Markov property. Based on this representation, BPASGM performs a dependence-driven screening that removes positively or redundantly connected assets, isolating subsets that are conditionally independent or negatively correlated. This step is designed to enhance diversification and reduce estimation error in high-dimensional portfolio settings. Portfolio optimization is then conducted on the selected subset using standard mean-variance techniques. BPASGM does not aim to improve the theoretical mean-variance optimum under known population parameters, but rather to enhance realized performance in finite samples, where sample-based Markowitz portfolios are highly sensitive to estimation error. Monte Carlo simulations show that BPASGM-based portfolios achieve more stable risk-return profiles, lower realized volatility, and superior risk-adjusted performance compared to standard mean-variance portfolios. Empirical results for U.S. equities, global stock indices, and foreign exchange rates over 1990-2025 confirm these findings and demonstrate a substantial reduction in portfolio cardinality. Overall, BPASGM offers a statistically grounded and computationally efficient framework that integrates sparse graphical modeling with portfolio theory for dependence-aware asset selection.

Autocorrelated Optimize-via-Estimate: Predict-then-Optimize versus Finite-sample Optimal

Models that directly optimize for out-of-sample performance in the finite-sample regime have emerged as a promising alternative to traditional estimate-then-optimize approaches in data-driven optimization. In this work, we compare their performance in the context of autocorrelated uncertainties, specifically, under a Vector Autoregressive Moving Average VARMA(p,q) process. We propose an autocorrelated Optimize-via-Estimate (A-OVE) model that obtains an out-of-sample optimal solution as a function of sufficient statistics, and propose a recursive form for computing its sufficient statistics. We evaluate these models on a portfolio optimization problem with trading costs. A-OVE achieves low regret relative to a perfect information oracle, outperforming predict-then-optimize machine learning benchmarks. Notably, machine learning models with higher accuracy can have poorer decision quality, echoing the growing literature in data-driven optimization. Performance is retained under small mis-specification.

LLM-Inspired Pretrain-Then-Finetune for Small-Data, Large-Scale Optimization

We consider small-data, large-scale decision problems in which a firm must make many operational decisions simultaneously (e.g., across a large product portfolio) while observing only a few, potentially noisy, data points per instance. Inspired by the success of large language models (LLMs), we propose a pretrain-then-finetune approach built on a designed Transformer model to address this challenge. The model is first pretrained on large-scale, domain-informed synthetic data that encode managerial knowledge and structural features of the decision environment, and is then fine-tuned on real observations. This new pipeline offers two complementary advantages: pretraining injects domain knowledge into the learning process and enables the training of high-capacity models using abundant synthetic data, while finetuning adapts the pretrained model to the operational environment and improves alignment with the true data-generating regime. While we have leveraged the Transformer's state-of-the-art representational capacity, particularly its attention mechanism, to efficiently extract cross-task structure, our approach is not an off-the-shelf application. Instead, it relies on problem-specific architectural design and a tailored training procedure to match the decision setting. Theoretically, we develop the first comprehensive error analysis regarding Transformer learning in relevant contexts, establishing nonasymptotic guarantees that validate the method's effectiveness. Critically, our analysis reveals how pretraining and fine-tuning jointly determine performance, with the dominant contribution governed by whichever is more favorable. In particular, finetuning exhibits an economies-of-scale effect, whereby transfer learning becomes increasingly effective as the number of instances grows.

The Enhanced Physics-Informed Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks: Applications of Newton's Laws in Financial Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) Algorithms

Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL), a subset of machine learning focused on sequential decision-making, has emerged as a powerful approach for tackling financial trading problems. In finance, DRL is commonly used either to generate discrete trade signals or to determine continuous portfolio allocations. In this work, we propose a novel reinforcement learning framework for portfolio optimization that incorporates Physics-Informed Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (PIKANs) into several DRL algorithms. The approach replaces conventional multilayer perceptrons with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) in both actor and critic components-utilizing learnable B-spline univariate functions to achieve parameter-efficient and more interpretable function approximation. During actor updates, we introduce a physics-informed regularization loss that promotes second-order temporal consistency between observed return dynamics and the action-induced portfolio adjustments. The proposed framework is evaluated across three equity markets-China, Vietnam, and the United States, covering both emerging and developed economies. Across all three markets, PIKAN-based agents consistently deliver higher cumulative and annualized returns, superior Sharpe and Calmar ratios, and more favorable drawdown characteristics compared to both standard DRL baselines and classical online portfolio-selection methods. This yields more stable training, higher Sharpe ratios, and superior performance compared to traditional DRL counterparts. The approach is particularly valuable in highly dynamic and noisy financial markets, where conventional DRL often suffers from instability and poor generalization.

Continuous-Utility Direct Preference Optimization

Large language model reasoning is often treated as a monolithic capability, relying on binary preference supervision that fails to capture partial progress or fine-grained reasoning quality. We introduce Continuous Utility Direct Preference Optimization (CU-DPO), a framework that aligns models to a portfolio of prompt-based cognitive strategies by replacing binary labels with continuous scores that capture fine-grained reasoning quality. We prove that learning with K strategies yields a Theta(K log K) improvement in sample complexity over binary preferences, and that DPO converges to the entropy-regularized utility-maximizing policy. To exploit this signal, we propose a two-stage training pipeline: (i) strategy selection, which optimizes the model to choose the best strategy for a given problem via best-vs-all comparisons, and (ii) execution refinement, which trains the model to correctly execute the selected strategy using margin-stratified pairs. On mathematical reasoning benchmarks, CU-DPO improves strategy selection accuracy from 35-46 percent to 68-78 percent across seven base models, yielding consistent downstream reasoning gains of up to 6.6 points on in-distribution datasets with effective transfer to out-of-distribution tasks.

Diverse Approaches to Optimal Execution Schedule Generation

We present the first application of MAP-Elites, a quality-diversity algorithm, to trade execution. Rather than searching for a single optimal policy, MAP-Elites generates a diverse portfolio of regime-specialist strategies indexed by liquidity and volatility conditions. Individual specialists achieve 8-10% performance improvements within their behavioural niches, while other cells show degradation, suggesting opportunities for ensemble approaches that combine improved specialists with the baseline PPO policy. Results indicate that quality-diversity methods offer promise for regime-adaptive execution, though substantial computational resources per behavioural cell may be required for robust specialist development across all market conditions. To ensure experimental integrity, we develop a calibrated Gymnasium environment focused on order scheduling rather than tactical placement decisions. The simulator features a transient impact model with exponential decay and square-root volume scaling, fit to 400+ U.S. equities with R^2>0.02 out-of-sample. Within this environment, two Proximal Policy Optimization architectures - both MLP and CNN feature extractors - demonstrate substantial improvements over industry baselines, with the CNN variant achieving 2.13 bps arrival slippage versus 5.23 bps for VWAP on 4,900 out-of-sample orders ($21B notional). These results validate both the simulation realism and provide strong single-policy baselines for quality-diversity methods.

Evolution of Benchmark: Black-Box Optimization Benchmark Design through Large Language Model

Benchmark Design in Black-Box Optimization (BBO) is a fundamental yet open-ended topic. Early BBO benchmarks are predominantly human-crafted, introducing expert bias and constraining diversity. Automating this design process can relieve the human-in-the-loop burden while enhancing diversity and objectivity. We propose Evolution of Benchmark (EoB), an automated BBO benchmark designer empowered by the large language model (LLM) and its program evolution capability. Specifically, we formulate benchmark design as a bi-objective optimization problem towards maximizing (i) landscape diversity and (ii) algorithm-differentiation ability across a portfolio of BBO solvers. Under this paradigm, EoB iteratively prompts LLM to evolve a population of benchmark programs and employs a reflection-based scheme to co-evolve the landscape and its corresponding program. Comprehensive experiments validate our EoB is a competitive candidate in multi-dimensional usages: 1) Benchmarking BBO algorithms; 2) Training and testing learning-assisted BBO algorithms; 3) Extending proxy for expensive real-world problems.

Neural Nonlinear Shrinkage of Covariance Matrices for Minimum Variance Portfolio Optimization

This paper introduces a neural network-based nonlinear shrinkage estimator of covariance matrices for the purpose of minimum variance portfolio optimization. It is a hybrid approach that integrates statistical estimation with machine learning. Starting from the Ledoit-Wolf (LW) shrinkage estimator, we decompose the LW covariance matrix into its eigenvalues and eigenvectors, and apply a lightweight transformer-based neural network to learn a nonlinear eigenvalue shrinkage function. Trained with portfolio risk as the loss function, the resulting precision matrix (the inverse covariance matrix) estimator directly targets portfolio risk minimization. By conditioning on the sample-to-dimension ratio, the approach remains scalable across different sample sizes and asset universes. Empirical results on stock daily returns from Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P500) demonstrate that the proposed method consistently achieves lower out-of-sample realized risk than benchmark approaches. This highlights the promise of integrating structural statistical models with data-driven learning.

How Sequential Algorithm Portfolios can benefit Black Box Optimization

In typical black-box optimization applications, the available computational budget is often allocated to a single algorithm, typically chosen based on user preference with limited knowledge about the problem at hand or according to some expert knowledge. However, we show that splitting the budget across several algorithms yield significantly better results. This approach benefits from both algorithm complementarity across diverse problems and variance reduction within individual functions, and shows that algorithm portfolios do NOT require parallel evaluation capabilities. To demonstrate the advantage of sequential algorithm portfolios, we apply it to the COCO data archive, using over 200 algorithms evaluated on the BBOB test suite. The proposed sequential portfolios consistently outperform single-algorithm baselines, achieving relative performance gains of over 14%, and offering new insights into restart mechanisms and potential for warm-started execution strategies.

Variational Quantum Circuit-Based Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Portfolio Optimization

This paper presents a Quantum Reinforcement Learning (QRL) solution to the dynamic portfolio optimization problem based on Variational Quantum Circuits. The implemented QRL approaches are quantum analogues of the classical neural-network-based Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient and Deep Q-Network algorithms. Through an empirical evaluation on real-world financial data, we show that our quantum agents achieve risk-adjusted performance comparable to, and in some cases exceeding, that of classical Deep RL models with several orders of magnitude more parameters. In addition to improved parameter efficiency, quantum agents exhibit reduced variability across market regimes, indicating robust behaviour under changing conditions. However, while quantum circuit execution is inherently fast at the hardware level, practical deployment on cloud-based quantum systems introduces substantial latency, making end-to-end runtime currently dominated by infrastructural overhead and limiting practical applicability. Taken together, our results suggest that QRL is theoretically competitive with state-of-the-art classical reinforcement learning and may become practically advantageous as deployment overheads diminish. This positions QRL as a promising paradigm for dynamic decision-making in complex, high-dimensional, and non-stationary environments such as financial markets. The complete codebase is released as open source at: https://github.com/VincentGurgul/qrl-dpo-public