Rollout Pass-Rate Control: Steering Binary-Reward RL Toward Its Most Informative Regime

SWE-bench-style agentic reinforcement learning relies on expensive stateful trajectories, yet substantial compute is wasted on sampled rollout groups with skewed pass rates, where binary rewards provide a weak contrastive signal. We frame this inefficiency as a pass-rate control problem and show that a 50% pass rate is the most informative operating point: it maximizes reward entropy, the probability of surviving group filtering, RLOO advantage energy under GRPO, and success--failure contrastive structure. Guided by this principle, we propose Prefix Sampling (PS), which replays trajectory prefixes to steer skewed groups toward this regime: successful prefixes serve as head starts for mostly failing groups, while failing prefixes serve as handicaps for mostly passing groups. In stateful agent environments, prefix states are reconstructed through replay while replayed tokens are excluded from the loss, restricting optimization to continuations generated by the current policy. On SWE-bench-style agentic RL, PS delivers end-to-end wall-clock speedups of 2.01x on Qwen3-14B and 1.55x on Qwen3-32B while preserving or improving final verified performance. For 14B, the SWE-bench Verified peak rises from the baseline peak of 0.273 to 0.295 under PS. Additional mathematical reasoning experiments on AIME 2025 show the same pass-rate control pattern and decompose the gains into replay, bidirectional coverage, and adaptive control.