Estimating Machine Translation Difficulty

Machine translation quality has began achieving near-perfect translations in some setups. These high-quality outputs make it difficult to distinguish between state-of-the-art models and to identify areas for future improvement. Automatically identifying texts where machine translation systems struggle holds promise for developing more discriminative evaluations and guiding future research. We formalize the task of translation difficulty estimation, defining a text's difficulty based on the expected quality of its translations. We introduce a new metric to evaluate difficulty estimators and use it to assess both baselines and novel approaches. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of difficulty estimators by using them to construct more challenging machine translation benchmarks. Our results show that dedicated models (dubbed Sentinel-src) outperform both heuristic-based methods (e.g. word rarity or syntactic complexity) and LLM-as-a-judge approaches. We release two improved models for difficulty estimation, Sentinel-src-24 and Sentinel-src-25, which can be used to scan large collections of texts and select those most likely to challenge contemporary machine translation systems.