Copula Processes

We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility (GCPV), to predict the latent standard deviations of a sequence of random variables. To make predictions we use Bayesian inference, with the Laplace approximation, and with Markov chain Monte Carlo as an alternative. We find both methods comparable. We also find our model can outperform GARCH on simulated and financial data. And unlike GARCH, GCPV can easily handle missing data, incorporate covariates other than time, and model a rich class of covariance structures.

Tree-Structured Stick Breaking Processes for Hierarchical Data

Many data are naturally modeled by an unobserved hierarchical structure. In this paper we propose a flexible nonparametric prior over unknown data hierarchies. The approach uses nested stick-breaking processes to allow for trees of unbounded width and depth, where data can live at any node and are infinitely exchangeable. One can view our model as providing infinite mixtures where the components have a dependency structure corresponding to an evolutionary diffusion down a tree. By using a stick-breaking approach, we can apply Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on slice sampling to perform Bayesian inference and simulate from the posterior distribution on trees. We apply our method to hierarchical clustering of images and topic modeling of text data.

Kronecker Graphs: An Approach to Modeling Networks

How can we model networks with a mathematically tractable model that allows for rigorous analysis of network properties? Networks exhibit a long list of surprising properties: heavy tails for the degree distribution; small diameters; and densification and shrinking diameters over time. Most present network models either fail to match several of the above properties, are complicated to analyze mathematically, or both. In this paper we propose a generative model for networks that is both mathematically tractable and can generate networks that have the above mentioned properties. Our main idea is to use the Kronecker product to generate graphs that we refer to as "Kronecker graphs". First, we prove that Kronecker graphs naturally obey common network properties. We also provide empirical evidence showing that Kronecker graphs can effectively model the structure of real networks. We then present KronFit, a fast and scalable algorithm for fitting the Kronecker graph generation model to large real networks. A naive approach to fitting would take super- exponential time. In contrast, KronFit takes linear time, by exploiting the structure of Kronecker matrix multiplication and by using statistical simulation techniques. Experiments on large real and synthetic networks show that KronFit finds accurate parameters that indeed very well mimic the properties of target networks. Once fitted, the model parameters can be used to gain insights about the network structure, and the resulting synthetic graphs can be used for null- models, anonymization, extrapolations, and graph summarization.

Bayesian two-sample tests

In this paper, we present two classes of Bayesian approaches to the two-sample problem. Our first class of methods extends the Bayesian t-test to include all parametric models in the exponential family and their conjugate priors. Our second class of methods uses Dirichlet process mixtures (DPM) of such conjugate-exponential distributions as flexible nonparametric priors over the unknown distributions.