Discretization-free Multicalibration through Loss Minimization over Tree Ensembles

In recent years, multicalibration has emerged as a desirable learning objective for ensuring that a predictor is calibrated across a rich collection of overlapping subpopulations. Existing approaches typically achieve multicalibration by discretizing the predictor's output space and iteratively adjusting its output values. However, this discretization approach departs from the standard empirical risk minimization (ERM) pipeline, introduces rounding error and additional sensitive hyperparameter, and may distort the predictor's outputs in ways that hinder downstream decision-making. In this work, we propose a discretization-free multicalibration method that directly optimizes an empirical risk objective over an ensemble of depth-two decision trees. Our ERM approach can be implemented using off-the-shelf tree ensemble learning methods such as LightGBM. Our algorithm provably achieves multicalibration, provided that the data distribution satisfies a technical condition we term as loss saturation. Across multiple datasets, our empirical evaluation shows that this condition is always met in practice. Our discretization-free algorithm consistently matches or outperforms existing multicalibration approaches--even when evaluated using a discretization-based multicalibration metric that shares its discretization granularity with the baselines.

STSA: Spatial-Temporal Semantic Alignment for Visual Dubbing

Existing audio-driven visual dubbing methods have achieved great success. Despite this, we observe that the semantic ambiguity between spatial and temporal domains significantly degrades the synthesis stability for the dynamic faces. We argue that aligning the semantic features from spatial and temporal domains is a promising approach to stabilizing facial motion. To achieve this, we propose a Spatial-Temporal Semantic Alignment (STSA) method, which introduces a dual-path alignment mechanism and a differentiable semantic representation. The former leverages a Consistent Information Learning (CIL) module to maximize the mutual information at multiple scales, thereby reducing the manifold differences between spatial and temporal domains. The latter utilizes probabilistic heatmap as ambiguity-tolerant guidance to avoid the abnormal dynamics of the synthesized faces caused by slight semantic jittering. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed STSA, especially in terms of image quality and synthesis stability. Pre-trained weights and inference code are available at https://github.com/SCAILab-USTC/STSA.