Evaluating Predictive Distributions: Does Bayesian Deep Learning Work?

Posterior predictive distributions quantify uncertainties ignored by point estimates. This paper introduces \textit{The Neural Testbed}, which provides tools for the systematic evaluation of agents that generate such predictions. Crucially, these tools assess not only the quality of marginal predictions per input, but also joint predictions given many inputs. Joint distributions are often critical for useful uncertainty quantification, but they have been largely overlooked by the Bayesian deep learning community. We benchmark several approaches to uncertainty estimation using a neural-network-based data generating process. Our results reveal the importance of evaluation beyond marginal predictions. Further, they reconcile sources of confusion in the field, such as why Bayesian deep learning approaches that generate accurate marginal predictions perform poorly in sequential decision tasks, how incorporating priors can be helpful, and what roles epistemic versus aleatoric uncertainty play when evaluating performance. We also present experiments on real-world challenge datasets, which show a high correlation with testbed results, and that the importance of evaluating joint predictive distributions carries over to real data. As part of this effort, we opensource The Neural Testbed, including all implementations from this paper.

Evaluating Probabilistic Inference in Deep Learning: Beyond Marginal Predictions

A fundamental challenge for any intelligent system is prediction: given some inputs $X_1,..,X_\tau$ can you predict outcomes $Y_1,.., Y_\tau$. The KL divergence $\mathbf{d}_{\mathrm{KL}}$ provides a natural measure of prediction quality, but the majority of deep learning research looks only at the marginal predictions per input $X_t$. In this technical report we propose a scoring rule $\mathbf{d}_{\mathrm{KL}}^\tau$, parameterized by $\tau \in \mathcal{N}$ that evaluates the joint predictions at $\tau$ inputs simultaneously. We show that the commonly-used $\tau=1$ can be insufficient to drive good decisions in many settings of interest. We also show that, as $\tau$ grows, performing well according to $\mathbf{d}_{\mathrm{KL}}^\tau$ recovers universal guarantees for any possible decision. Finally, we provide problem-dependent guidance on the scale of $\tau$ for which our score provides sufficient guarantees for good performance.

Epistemic Neural Networks

We introduce the \textit{epistemic neural network} (ENN) as an interface for uncertainty modeling in deep learning. All existing approaches to uncertainty modeling can be expressed as ENNs, and any ENN can be identified with a Bayesian neural network. However, this new perspective provides several promising directions for future research. Where prior work has developed probabilistic inference tools for neural networks; we ask instead, `which neural networks are suitable as tools for probabilistic inference?'. We propose a clear and simple metric for progress in ENNs: the KL-divergence with respect to a target distribution. We develop a computational testbed based on inference in a neural network Gaussian process and release our code as a benchmark at \url{https://github.com/deepmind/enn}. We evaluate several canonical approaches to uncertainty modeling in deep learning, and find they vary greatly in their performance. We provide insight to the sensitivity of these results and show that our metric is highly correlated with performance in sequential decision problems. Finally, we provide indications that new ENN architectures can improve performance in both the statistical quality and computational cost.

Joint Online Learning and Decision-making via Dual Mirror Descent

We consider an online revenue maximization problem over a finite time horizon subject to lower and upper bounds on cost. At each period, an agent receives a context vector sampled i.i.d. from an unknown distribution and needs to make a decision adaptively. The revenue and cost functions depend on the context vector as well as some fixed but possibly unknown parameter vector to be learned. We propose a novel offline benchmark and a new algorithm that mixes an online dual mirror descent scheme with a generic parameter learning process. When the parameter vector is known, we demonstrate an $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret result as well an $O(\sqrt{T})$ bound on the possible constraint violations. When the parameter is not known and must be learned, we demonstrate that the regret and constraint violations are the sums of the previous $O(\sqrt{T})$ terms plus terms that directly depend on the convergence of the learning process.

Reinforcement Learning, Bit by Bit

Reinforcement learning agents have demonstrated remarkable achievements in simulated environments. Data efficiency poses an impediment to carrying this success over to real environments. The design of data-efficient agents calls for a deeper understanding of information acquisition and representation. We develop concepts and establish a regret bound that together offer principled guidance. The bound sheds light on questions of what information to seek, how to seek that information, and it what information to retain. To illustrate concepts, we design simple agents that build on them and present computational results that demonstrate improvements in data efficiency.

Neural Contextual Bandits with Deep Representation and Shallow Exploration

We study a general class of contextual bandits, where each context-action pair is associated with a raw feature vector, but the reward generating function is unknown. We propose a novel learning algorithm that transforms the raw feature vector using the last hidden layer of a deep ReLU neural network (deep representation learning), and uses an upper confidence bound (UCB) approach to explore in the last linear layer (shallow exploration). We prove that under standard assumptions, our proposed algorithm achieves $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ finite-time regret, where $T$ is the learning time horizon. Compared with existing neural contextual bandit algorithms, our approach is computationally much more efficient since it only needs to explore in the last layer of the deep neural network.

A Benchmark and Baseline for Language-Driven Image Editing

Language-driven image editing can significantly save the laborious image editing work and be friendly to the photography novice. However, most similar work can only deal with a specific image domain or can only do global retouching. To solve this new task, we first present a new language-driven image editing dataset that supports both local and global editing with editing operation and mask annotations. Besides, we also propose a baseline method that fully utilizes the annotation to solve this problem. Our new method treats each editing operation as a sub-module and can automatically predict operation parameters. Not only performing well on challenging user data, but such an approach is also highly interpretable. We believe our work, including both the benchmark and the baseline, will advance the image editing area towards a more general and free-form level.

On the Sample Complexity of Reinforcement Learning with Policy Space Generalization

We study the optimal sample complexity in large-scale Reinforcement Learning (RL) problems with policy space generalization, i.e. the agent has a prior knowledge that the optimal policy lies in a known policy space. Existing results show that without a generalization model, the sample complexity of an RL algorithm will inevitably depend on the cardinalities of state space and action space, which are intractably large in many practical problems. To avoid such undesirable dependence on the state and action space sizes, this paper proposes a new notion of eluder dimension for the policy space, which characterizes the intrinsic complexity of policy learning in an arbitrary Markov Decision Process (MDP). Using a simulator oracle, we prove a near-optimal sample complexity upper bound that only depends linearly on the eluder dimension. We further prove a similar regret bound in deterministic systems without the simulator.

Low-rank Tensor Bandits

In recent years, multi-dimensional online decision making has been playing a crucial role in many practical applications such as online recommendation and digital marketing. To solve it, we introduce stochastic low-rank tensor bandits, a class of bandits whose mean rewards can be represented as a low-rank tensor. We propose two learning algorithms, tensor epoch-greedy and tensor elimination, and develop finite-time regret bounds for them. We observe that tensor elimination has an optimal dependency on the time horizon, while tensor epoch-greedy has a sharper dependency on tensor dimensions. Numerical experiments further back up these theoretical findings and show that our algorithms outperform various state-of-the-art approaches that ignore the tensor low-rank structure.