Pitfalls of Administrative Censoring in Survival Models with Time-Indexed Inputs

Survival models can model time-to-event outcomes using partially observed data. They are widely used in clinical prediction, including cancer risk, disease progression, treatment response, and mortality. Recent models often rely on rich inputs collected at a specific clinical encounter, such as medical images, laboratory tests, electronic health record snapshots, or sensor measurements. In large retrospective datasets, these inputs are usually collected over many calendar years. As a result, they may contain clues about when they were acquired through changes in devices, protocols, documentation, patient mix, or clinical practice. This creates a potential failure mode when outcomes are observed only up to a fixed study end date. More recent records necessarily have less potential follow-up than older records. A model that can infer the record date from the input may therefore learn to predict how much follow-up was available rather than the patient's true risk of experiencing the event. We call this failure mode administrative-cutoff leakage. In this paper, we characterize when this leakage can occur, distinguish it from classical informative censoring and genuine temporal changes in risk, and propose practical ways to detect it. In simulations, we show that administrative-cutoff leakage can inflate fixed-horizon AUC and can also affect Harrell's C-index under realistic follow-up patterns. We then demonstrate the same behavior in a real mammography cohort. These results motivate a simple design principle for survival prediction: for an n-year prediction task, the dataset should provide at least n years of potential follow-up after the latest input date. Otherwise, the models may be subject to bias induced by administrative-cutoff leakage.

Revealing Mammographic Phenotypes in Deep Learning Breast Cancer Risk Models

Mammogram-based deep learning models have improved breast cancer risk prediction, but the learned imaging patterns remain underexplored. Existing interpretability methods rely on single-image saliency maps, failing to identify recurring mammographic phenotypes across large patient cohorts. By clustering patch embeddings from a pre-trained model, Mirai, we isolate recurring phenotypes linked to 5-year cancer risk. Analyses show risk-increasing phenotypes capture complex structures (e.g., dense tissue, microcalcifications) and shortcut artifacts (e.g., clips). These phenotypes correlate strongly with older age and higher BI-RADS density. Our framework connects tissue patterns to AI risk scores, revealing clinical signatures and potential latent model confounders.

External Validation of Deep Learning Models for BI-RADS Breast Density Prediction from Ultrasound Images

We externally validated three deep learning models (DenseNet121, ViT-B/32, and ResNet50) for predicting mammographic breast density from breast ultrasound exams on an independent cohort. The external validation set comprised 2,000 ultrasound exams, including 500 cancer cases defined by an initial negative exam (BI-RADS 1 or 2) followed by a cancer diagnosis within 6 months to 10 years, and 1,500 negative controls matched by manufacturer and study year. Performance was measured using patient-level AUROC across four density categories: A (fatty), B (scattered), C (heterogeneous), and D (extremely dense). As a downstream assessment, we also evaluated 10-year risk prediction by incorporating age and AI-derived density into the Tyrer-Cuzick model and comparing performance against a reference model using age and mammography-reported density. All three models performed best in extremely dense breasts (AUROC 0.868-0.899), with strong performance in fatty (0.814-0.838) and scattered density (0.764-0.799), and lower performance in heterogeneously dense breasts (0.699-0.729). DenseNet121 achieved the highest overall performance (micro-averaged AUROC 0.885), and performance across categories was comparable between internal and external testing. For risk modeling, age combined with AI-derived density yielded a lower AUROC than age combined with mammography-reported density (0.541 vs. 0.570; p = 0.23), with no statistically significant difference. These findings indicate that deep learning models generalize well to external data with different racial composition for breast density assessment. While performance is strongest in extremely dense breasts, heterogeneously dense remains more challenging, highlighting the need for targeted optimization.

A Multi-Modal AI System for Screening Mammography: Integrating 2D and 3D Imaging to Improve Breast Cancer Detection in a Prospective Clinical Study

Although digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) improves diagnostic performance over full-field digital mammography (FFDM), false-positive recalls remain a concern in breast cancer screening. We developed a multi-modal artificial intelligence system integrating FFDM, synthetic mammography, and DBT to provide breast-level predictions and bounding-box localizations of suspicious findings. Our AI system, trained on approximately 500,000 mammography exams, achieved 0.945 AUROC on an internal test set. It demonstrated capacity to reduce recalls by 31.7% and radiologist workload by 43.8% while maintaining 100% sensitivity, underscoring its potential to improve clinical workflows. External validation confirmed strong generalizability, reducing the gap to a perfect AUROC by 35.31%-69.14% relative to strong baselines. In prospective deployment across 18 sites, the system reduced recall rates for low-risk cases. An improved version, trained on over 750,000 exams with additional labels, further reduced the gap by 18.86%-56.62% across large external datasets. Overall, these results underscore the importance of utilizing all available imaging modalities, demonstrate the potential for clinical impact, and indicate feasibility of further reduction of the test error with increased training set when using large-capacity neural networks.

Understanding differences in applying DETR to natural and medical images

Transformer-based detectors have shown success in computer vision tasks with natural images. These models, exemplified by the Deformable DETR, are optimized through complex engineering strategies tailored to the typical characteristics of natural scenes. However, medical imaging data presents unique challenges such as extremely large image sizes, fewer and smaller regions of interest, and object classes which can be differentiated only through subtle differences. This study evaluates the applicability of these transformer-based design choices when applied to a screening mammography dataset that represents these distinct medical imaging data characteristics. Our analysis reveals that common design choices from the natural image domain, such as complex encoder architectures, multi-scale feature fusion, query initialization, and iterative bounding box refinement, do not improve and sometimes even impair object detection performance in medical imaging. In contrast, simpler and shallower architectures often achieve equal or superior results. This finding suggests that the adaptation of transformer models for medical imaging data requires a reevaluation of standard practices, potentially leading to more efficient and specialized frameworks for medical diagnosis.

3D-GMIC: an efficient deep neural network to find small objects in large 3D images

3D imaging enables a more accurate diagnosis by providing spatial information about organ anatomy. However, using 3D images to train AI models is computationally challenging because they consist of tens or hundreds of times more pixels than their 2D counterparts. To train with high-resolution 3D images, convolutional neural networks typically resort to downsampling them or projecting them to two dimensions. In this work, we propose an effective alternative, a novel neural network architecture that enables computationally efficient classification of 3D medical images in their full resolution. Compared to off-the-shelf convolutional neural networks, 3D-GMIC uses 77.98%-90.05% less GPU memory and 91.23%-96.02% less computation. While our network is trained only with image-level labels, without segmentation labels, it explains its classification predictions by providing pixel-level saliency maps. On a dataset collected at NYU Langone Health, including 85,526 patients with full-field 2D mammography (FFDM), synthetic 2D mammography, and 3D mammography (DBT), our model, the 3D Globally-Aware Multiple Instance Classifier (3D-GMIC), achieves a breast-wise AUC of 0.831 (95% CI: 0.769-0.887) in classifying breasts with malignant findings using DBT images. As DBT and 2D mammography capture different information, averaging predictions on 2D and 3D mammography together leads to a diverse ensemble with an improved breast-wise AUC of 0.841 (95% CI: 0.768-0.895). Our model generalizes well to an external dataset from Duke University Hospital, achieving an image-wise AUC of 0.848 (95% CI: 0.798-0.896) in classifying DBT images with malignant findings.