A Hybrid Autoencoder-Transformer Model for Robust Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting under Extreme Conditions

Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasting (DAEPF) is critical for the efficient operation of power systems, but extreme condition and market anomalies pose significant challenges to existing forecasting methods. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a novel hybrid deep learning framework that integrates a Distilled Attention Transformer (DAT) model and an Autoencoder Self-regression Model (ASM). The DAT leverages a self-attention mechanism to dynamically assign higher weights to critical segments of historical data, effectively capturing both long-term trends and short-term fluctuations. Concurrently, the ASM employs unsupervised learning to detect and isolate anomalous patterns induced by extreme conditions, such as heavy rain, heat waves, or human festivals. Experiments on datasets sampled from California and Shandong Province demonstrate that our framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in prediction accuracy, robustness, and computational efficiency. Our framework thus holds promise for enhancing grid resilience and optimizing market operations in future power systems.

COTN: A Chaotic Oscillatory Transformer Network for Complex Volatile Systems under Extreme Conditions

Accurate prediction of financial and electricity markets, especially under extreme conditions, remains a significant challenge due to their intrinsic nonlinearity, rapid fluctuations, and chaotic patterns. To address these limitations, we propose the Chaotic Oscillatory Transformer Network (COTN). COTN innovatively combines a Transformer architecture with a novel Lee Oscillator activation function, processed through Max-over-Time pooling and a lambda-gating mechanism. This design is specifically tailored to effectively capture chaotic dynamics and improve responsiveness during periods of heightened volatility, where conventional activation functions (e.g., ReLU, GELU) tend to saturate. Furthermore, COTN incorporates an Autoencoder Self-Regressive (ASR) module to detect and isolate abnormal market patterns, such as sudden price spikes or crashes, thereby preventing corruption of the core prediction process and enhancing robustness. Extensive experiments across electricity spot markets and financial markets demonstrate the practical applicability and resilience of COTN. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning models like Informer by up to 17% and traditional statistical methods like GARCH by as much as 40%. These results underscore COTN's effectiveness in navigating real-world market uncertainty and complexity, offering a powerful tool for forecasting highly volatile systems under duress.