Gromov-Hausdorff Distances for Comparing Product Manifolds of Model Spaces

Recent studies propose enhancing machine learning models by aligning the geometric characteristics of the latent space with the underlying data structure. Instead of relying solely on Euclidean space, researchers have suggested using hyperbolic and spherical spaces with constant curvature, or their combinations (known as product manifolds), to improve model performance. However, there exists no principled technique to determine the best latent product manifold signature, which refers to the choice and dimensionality of manifold components. To address this, we introduce a novel notion of distance between candidate latent geometries using the Gromov-Hausdorff distance from metric geometry. We propose using a graph search space that uses the estimated Gromov-Hausdorff distances to search for the optimal latent geometry. In this work we focus on providing a description of an algorithm to compute the Gromov-Hausdorff distance between model spaces and its computational implementation.

Hypergraph Structure Inference From Data Under Smoothness Prior

Hypergraphs are important for processing data with higher-order relationships involving more than two entities. In scenarios where explicit hypergraphs are not readily available, it is desirable to infer a meaningful hypergraph structure from the node features to capture the intrinsic relations within the data. However, existing methods either adopt simple pre-defined rules that fail to precisely capture the distribution of the potential hypergraph structure, or learn a mapping between hypergraph structures and node features but require a large amount of labelled data, i.e., pre-existing hypergraph structures, for training. Both restrict their applications in practical scenarios. To fill this gap, we propose a novel smoothness prior that enables us to design a method to infer the probability for each potential hyperedge without labelled data as supervision. The proposed prior indicates features of nodes in a hyperedge are highly correlated by the features of the hyperedge containing them. We use this prior to derive the relation between the hypergraph structure and the node features via probabilistic modelling. This allows us to develop an unsupervised inference method to estimate the probability for each potential hyperedge via solving an optimisation problem that has an analytical solution. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that our method can learn meaningful hypergraph structures from data more efficiently than existing hypergraph structure inference methods.

Learning to Learn Financial Networks for Optimising Momentum Strategies

Network momentum provides a novel type of risk premium, which exploits the interconnections among assets in a financial network to predict future returns. However, the current process of constructing financial networks relies heavily on expensive databases and financial expertise, limiting accessibility for small-sized and academic institutions. Furthermore, the traditional approach treats network construction and portfolio optimisation as separate tasks, potentially hindering optimal portfolio performance. To address these challenges, we propose L2GMOM, an end-to-end machine learning framework that simultaneously learns financial networks and optimises trading signals for network momentum strategies. The model of L2GMOM is a neural network with a highly interpretable forward propagation architecture, which is derived from algorithm unrolling. The L2GMOM is flexible and can be trained with diverse loss functions for portfolio performance, e.g. the negative Sharpe ratio. Backtesting on 64 continuous future contracts demonstrates a significant improvement in portfolio profitability and risk control, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.74 across a 20-year period.

Network Momentum across Asset Classes

We investigate the concept of network momentum, a novel trading signal derived from momentum spillover across assets. Initially observed within the confines of pairwise economic and fundamental ties, such as the stock-bond connection of the same company and stocks linked through supply-demand chains, momentum spillover implies a propagation of momentum risk premium from one asset to another. The similarity of momentum risk premium, exemplified by co-movement patterns, has been spotted across multiple asset classes including commodities, equities, bonds and currencies. However, studying the network effect of momentum spillover across these classes has been challenging due to a lack of readily available common characteristics or economic ties beyond the company level. In this paper, we explore the interconnections of momentum features across a diverse range of 64 continuous future contracts spanning these four classes. We utilise a linear and interpretable graph learning model with minimal assumptions to reveal the intricacies of the momentum spillover network. By leveraging the learned networks, we construct a network momentum strategy that exhibits a Sharpe ratio of 1.5 and an annual return of 22%, after volatility scaling, from 2000 to 2022. This paper pioneers the examination of momentum spillover across multiple asset classes using only pricing data, presents a multi-asset investment strategy based on network momentum, and underscores the effectiveness of this strategy through robust empirical analysis.

Graph Neural Networks for Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility with Spillover Effects

We present a novel methodology for modeling and forecasting multivariate realized volatilities using customized graph neural networks to incorporate spillover effects across stocks. The proposed model offers the benefits of incorporating spillover effects from multi-hop neighbors, capturing nonlinear relationships, and flexible training with different loss functions. Our empirical findings provide compelling evidence that incorporating spillover effects from multi-hop neighbors alone does not yield a clear advantage in terms of predictive accuracy. However, modeling nonlinear spillover effects enhances the forecasting accuracy of realized volatilities, particularly for short-term horizons of up to one week. Moreover, our results consistently indicate that training with the Quasi-likelihood loss leads to substantial improvements in model performance compared to the commonly-used mean squared error. A comprehensive series of empirical evaluations in alternative settings confirm the robustness of our results.

On the Impact of Sample Size in Reconstructing Graph Signals

Reconstructing a signal on a graph from observations on a subset of the vertices is a fundamental problem in the field of graph signal processing. It is often assumed that adding additional observations to an observation set will reduce the expected reconstruction error. We show that under the setting of noisy observation and least-squares reconstruction this is not always the case, characterising the behaviour both theoretically and experimentally.

Structure-Aware Robustness Certificates for Graph Classification

Certifying the robustness of a graph-based machine learning model poses a critical challenge for safety. Current robustness certificates for graph classifiers guarantee output invariance with respect to the total number of node pair flips (edge addition or edge deletion), which amounts to an $l_{0}$ ball centred on the adjacency matrix. Although theoretically attractive, this type of isotropic structural noise can be too restrictive in practical scenarios where some node pairs are more critical than others in determining the classifier's output. The certificate, in this case, gives a pessimistic depiction of the robustness of the graph model. To tackle this issue, we develop a randomised smoothing method based on adding an anisotropic noise distribution to the input graph structure. We show that our process generates structural-aware certificates for our classifiers, whereby the magnitude of robustness certificates can vary across different pre-defined structures of the graph. We demonstrate the benefits of these certificates in both synthetic and real-world experiments.

Bayesian Optimisation of Functions on Graphs

The increasing availability of graph-structured data motivates the task of optimising over functions defined on the node set of graphs. Traditional graph search algorithms can be applied in this case, but they may be sample-inefficient and do not make use of information about the function values; on the other hand, Bayesian optimisation is a class of promising black-box solvers with superior sample efficiency, but it has been scarcely been applied to such novel setups. To fill this gap, we propose a novel Bayesian optimisation framework that optimises over functions defined on generic, large-scale and potentially unknown graphs. Through the learning of suitable kernels on graphs, our framework has the advantage of adapting to the behaviour of the target function. The local modelling approach further guarantees the efficiency of our method. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world graphs demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed optimisation framework.

Graph Classification Gaussian Processes via Spectral Features

Graph classification aims to categorise graphs based on their structure and node attributes. In this work, we propose to tackle this task using tools from graph signal processing by deriving spectral features, which we then use to design two variants of Gaussian process models for graph classification. The first variant uses spectral features based on the distribution of energy of a node feature signal over the spectrum of the graph. We show that even such a simple approach, having no learned parameters, can yield competitive performance compared to strong neural network and graph kernel baselines. A second, more sophisticated variant is designed to capture multi-scale and localised patterns in the graph by learning spectral graph wavelet filters, obtaining improved performance on synthetic and real-world data sets. Finally, we show that both models produce well calibrated uncertainty estimates, enabling reliable decision making based on the model predictions.

DRew: Dynamically Rewired Message Passing with Delay

Message passing neural networks (MPNNs) have been shown to suffer from the phenomenon of over-squashing that causes poor performance for tasks relying on long-range interactions. This can be largely attributed to message passing only occurring locally, over a node's immediate neighbours. Rewiring approaches attempting to make graphs 'more connected', and supposedly better suited to long-range tasks, often lose the inductive bias provided by distance on the graph since they make distant nodes communicate instantly at every layer. In this paper we propose a framework, applicable to any MPNN architecture, that performs a layer-dependent rewiring to ensure gradual densification of the graph. We also propose a delay mechanism that permits skip connections between nodes depending on the layer and their mutual distance. We validate our approach on several long-range tasks and show that it outperforms graph Transformers and multi-hop MPNNs.