Unified Flow Matching for Long Horizon Event Forecasting

Modeling long horizon marked event sequences is a fundamental challenge in many real-world applications, including healthcare, finance, and user behavior modeling. Existing neural temporal point process models are typically autoregressive, predicting the next event one step at a time, which limits their efficiency and leads to error accumulation in long-range forecasting. In this work, we propose a unified flow matching framework for marked temporal point processes that enables non-autoregressive, joint modeling of inter-event times and event types, via continuous and discrete flow matching. By learning continuous-time flows for both components, our method generates coherent long horizon event trajectories without sequential decoding. We evaluate our model on six real-world benchmarks and demonstrate significant improvements over autoregressive and diffusion-based baselines in both accuracy and generation efficiency.

Gradient Flow Matching for Learning Update Dynamics in Neural Network Training

Training deep neural networks remains computationally intensive due to the itera2 tive nature of gradient-based optimization. We propose Gradient Flow Matching (GFM), a continuous-time modeling framework that treats neural network training as a dynamical system governed by learned optimizer-aware vector fields. By leveraging conditional flow matching, GFM captures the underlying update rules of optimizers such as SGD, Adam, and RMSprop, enabling smooth extrapolation of weight trajectories toward convergence. Unlike black-box sequence models, GFM incorporates structural knowledge of gradient-based updates into the learning objective, facilitating accurate forecasting of final weights from partial training sequences. Empirically, GFM achieves forecasting accuracy that is competitive with Transformer-based models and significantly outperforms LSTM and other classical baselines. Furthermore, GFM generalizes across neural architectures and initializations, providing a unified framework for studying optimization dynamics and accelerating convergence prediction.

Less is More: Efficient Weight Farcasting with 1-Layer Neural Network

Addressing the computational challenges inherent in training large-scale deep neural networks remains a critical endeavor in contemporary machine learning research. While previous efforts have focused on enhancing training efficiency through techniques such as gradient descent with momentum, learning rate scheduling, and weight regularization, the demand for further innovation continues to burgeon as model sizes keep expanding. In this study, we introduce a novel framework which diverges from conventional approaches by leveraging long-term time series forecasting techniques. Our method capitalizes solely on initial and final weight values, offering a streamlined alternative for complex model architectures. We also introduce a novel regularizer that is tailored to enhance the forecasting performance of our approach. Empirical evaluations conducted on synthetic weight sequences and real-world deep learning architectures, including the prominent large language model DistilBERT, demonstrate the superiority of our method in terms of forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency. Notably, our framework showcases improved performance while requiring minimal additional computational overhead, thus presenting a promising avenue for accelerating the training process across diverse tasks and architectures.

Architecture-Aware Learning Curve Extrapolation via Graph Ordinary Differential Equation

Learning curve extrapolation predicts neural network performance from early training epochs and has been applied to accelerate AutoML, facilitating hyperparameter tuning and neural architecture search. However, existing methods typically model the evolution of learning curves in isolation, neglecting the impact of neural network (NN) architectures, which influence the loss landscape and learning trajectories. In this work, we explore whether incorporating neural network architecture improves learning curve modeling and how to effectively integrate this architectural information. Motivated by the dynamical system view of optimization, we propose a novel architecture-aware neural differential equation model to forecast learning curves continuously. We empirically demonstrate its ability to capture the general trend of fluctuating learning curves while quantifying uncertainty through variational parameters. Our model outperforms current state-of-the-art learning curve extrapolation methods and pure time-series modeling approaches for both MLP and CNN-based learning curves. Additionally, we explore the applicability of our method in Neural Architecture Search scenarios, such as training configuration ranking.

Self-Supervised Contrastive Pre-Training for Multivariate Point Processes

Self-supervision is one of the hallmarks of representation learning in the increasingly popular suite of foundation models including large language models such as BERT and GPT-3, but it has not been pursued in the context of multivariate event streams, to the best of our knowledge. We introduce a new paradigm for self-supervised learning for multivariate point processes using a transformer encoder. Specifically, we design a novel pre-training strategy for the encoder where we not only mask random event epochs but also insert randomly sampled "void" epochs where an event does not occur; this differs from the typical discrete-time pretext tasks such as word-masking in BERT but expands the effectiveness of masking to better capture continuous-time dynamics. To improve downstream tasks, we introduce a contrasting module that compares real events to simulated void instances. The pre-trained model can subsequently be fine-tuned on a potentially much smaller event dataset, similar conceptually to the typical transfer of popular pre-trained language models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed paradigm on the next-event prediction task using synthetic datasets and 3 real applications, observing a relative performance boost of as high as up to 20% compared to state-of-the-art models.