Traditional statistical representations outperform generative AI in identifying expert peer reviewers

The exponential growth of scientific submissions has strained the peer review system. Despite the rapidly expanding global pool of researchers, this unprecedented scale has rendered the previous approach of manual expert identification unfeasible. Therefore, institutions have naturally turned to Large Language Models (LLMs) to automate intricate processes like expert reviewer identification. However, the reliability of these new models in accurately identifying domain experts lacks rigorous evaluation. We conduct a comprehensive empirical evaluation of statistical and AI-driven expertise identification methodologies to benchmark their reliability and limitations. Framing expert identification as an information retrieval problem, we utilize the distributed peer review system of a major international astronomical observatory, where proposal authorship serves as our proxy ground truth for domain expertise. Evaluating six retrieval methodologies utilized across observatories and computer science conferences, we demonstrate that traditional statistical representations outperform generative AI. Specifically, Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency successfully identified a labeled expert within the top 25 recommendations 79.5% of the time, compared to 51.5% for GPT-4o mini. Our results highlight that distinguishing subfield expertise requires fine-grained vocabulary, which is obscured by the semantic smoothing in generative methods. By establishing a rigorous evaluation framework for automated peer review, we demonstrate that transparent and reproducible statistical representations still outperform computationally expensive LLMs in specialized scientific tasks.

Probabilistic Dalek -- Emulator framework with probabilistic prediction for supernova tomography

Supernova spectral time series can be used to reconstruct a spatially resolved explosion model known as supernova tomography. In addition to an observed spectral time series, a supernova tomography requires a radiative transfer model to perform the inverse problem with uncertainty quantification for a reconstruction. The smallest parametrizations of supernova tomography models are roughly a dozen parameters with a realistic one requiring more than 100. Realistic radiative transfer models require tens of CPU minutes for a single evaluation making the problem computationally intractable with traditional means requiring millions of MCMC samples for such a problem. A new method for accelerating simulations known as surrogate models or emulators using machine learning techniques offers a solution for such problems and a way to understand progenitors/explosions from spectral time series. There exist emulators for the TARDIS supernova radiative transfer code but they only perform well on simplistic low-dimensional models (roughly a dozen parameters) with a small number of applications for knowledge gain in the supernova field. In this work, we present a new emulator for the radiative transfer code TARDIS that not only outperforms existing emulators but also provides uncertainties in its prediction. It offers the foundation for a future active-learning-based machinery that will be able to emulate very high dimensional spaces of hundreds of parameters crucial for unraveling urgent questions in supernovae and related fields.