Probabilistic Dalek -- Emulator framework with probabilistic prediction for supernova tomography

Supernova spectral time series can be used to reconstruct a spatially resolved explosion model known as supernova tomography. In addition to an observed spectral time series, a supernova tomography requires a radiative transfer model to perform the inverse problem with uncertainty quantification for a reconstruction. The smallest parametrizations of supernova tomography models are roughly a dozen parameters with a realistic one requiring more than 100. Realistic radiative transfer models require tens of CPU minutes for a single evaluation making the problem computationally intractable with traditional means requiring millions of MCMC samples for such a problem. A new method for accelerating simulations known as surrogate models or emulators using machine learning techniques offers a solution for such problems and a way to understand progenitors/explosions from spectral time series. There exist emulators for the TARDIS supernova radiative transfer code but they only perform well on simplistic low-dimensional models (roughly a dozen parameters) with a small number of applications for knowledge gain in the supernova field. In this work, we present a new emulator for the radiative transfer code TARDIS that not only outperforms existing emulators but also provides uncertainties in its prediction. It offers the foundation for a future active-learning-based machinery that will be able to emulate very high dimensional spaces of hundreds of parameters crucial for unraveling urgent questions in supernovae and related fields.

Dalek -- a deep-learning emulator for TARDIS

Supernova spectral time series contain a wealth of information about the progenitor and explosion process of these energetic events. The modeling of these data requires the exploration of very high dimensional posterior probabilities with expensive radiative transfer codes. Even modest parametrizations of supernovae contain more than ten parameters and a detailed exploration demands at least several million function evaluations. Physically realistic models require at least tens of CPU minutes per evaluation putting a detailed reconstruction of the explosion out of reach of traditional methodology. The advent of widely available libraries for the training of neural networks combined with their ability to approximate almost arbitrary functions with high precision allows for a new approach to this problem. Instead of evaluating the radiative transfer model itself, one can build a neural network proxy trained on the simulations but evaluating orders of magnitude faster. Such a framework is called an emulator or surrogate model. In this work, we present an emulator for the TARDIS supernova radiative transfer code applied to Type Ia supernova spectra. We show that we can train an emulator for this problem given a modest training set of a hundred thousand spectra (easily calculable on modern supercomputers). The results show an accuracy on the percent level (that are dominated by the Monte Carlo nature of TARDIS and not the emulator) with a speedup of several orders of magnitude. This method has a much broader set of applications and is not limited to the presented problem.

Collaborative Nested Sampling: Big Data vs. complex physical models

The data torrent unleashed by current and upcoming astronomical surveys demands scalable analysis methods. Many machine learning approaches scale well, but separating the instrument measurement from the physical effects of interest, dealing with variable errors, and deriving parameter uncertainties is often an after-thought. Classic forward-folding analyses with Markov Chain Monte Carlo or Nested Sampling enable parameter estimation and model comparison, even for complex and slow-to-evaluate physical models. However, these approaches require independent runs for each data set, implying an unfeasible number of model evaluations in the Big Data regime. Here I present a new algorithm, collaborative nested sampling, for deriving parameter probability distributions for each observation. Importantly, the number of physical model evaluations scales sub-linearly with the number of data sets, and no assumptions about homogeneous errors, Gaussianity, the form of the model or heterogeneity/completeness of the observations need to be made. Collaborative nested sampling has immediate application in speeding up analyses of large surveys, integral-field-unit observations, and Monte Carlo simulations.