Markov Switching Model for Driver Behavior Prediction: Use cases on Smartphones

Several intelligent transportation systems focus on studying the various driver behaviors for numerous objectives. This includes the ability to analyze driver actions, sensitivity, distraction, and response time. As the data collection is one of the major concerns for learning and validating different driving situations, we present a driver behavior switching model validated by a low-cost data collection solution using smartphones. The proposed model is validated using a real dataset to predict the driver behavior in short duration periods. A literature survey on motion detection (specifically driving behavior detection using smartphones) is presented. Multiple Markov Switching Variable Auto-Regression (MSVAR) models are implemented to achieve a sophisticated fitting with the collected driver behavior data. This yields more accurate predictions not only for driver behavior but also for the entire driving situation. The performance of the presented models together with a suitable model selection criteria is also presented. The proposed driver behavior prediction framework can potentially be used in accident prediction and driver safety systems.

Bearings Fault Detection Using Hidden Markov Models and Principal Component Analysis Enhanced Features

Asset health monitoring continues to be of increasing importance on productivity, reliability, and cost reduction. Early Fault detection is a keystone of health management as part of the emerging Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) philosophy. This paper proposes a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to assess the machine health degradation. using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to enhance features extracted from vibration signals is considered. The enhanced features capture the second order structure of the data. The experimental results based on a bearing test bed show the plausibility of the proposed method.

CrossCount: A Deep Learning System for Device-free Human Counting using WiFi

Counting humans is an essential part of many people-centric applications. In this paper, we propose CrossCount: an accurate deep-learning-based human count estimator that uses a single WiFi link to estimate the human count in an area of interest. The main idea is to depend on the temporal link-blockage pattern as a discriminant feature that is more robust to wireless channel noise than the signal strength, hence delivering a ubiquitous and accurate human counting system. As part of its design, CrossCount addresses a number of deep learning challenges such as class imbalance and training data augmentation for enhancing the model generalizability. Implementation and evaluation of CrossCount in multiple testbeds show that it can achieve a human counting accuracy to within a maximum of 2 persons 100% of the time. This highlights the promise of CrossCount as a ubiquitous crowd estimator with non-labour-intensive data collection from off-the-shelf devices.

Trans-Sense: Real Time Transportation Schedule Estimation Using Smart Phones

Developing countries suffer from traffic congestion, poorly planned road/rail networks, and lack of access to public transportation facilities. This context results in an increase in fuel consumption, pollution level, monetary losses, massive delays, and less productivity. On the other hand, it has a negative impact on the commuters feelings and moods. Availability of real-time transit information - by providing public transportation vehicles locations using GPS devices - helps in estimating a passenger's waiting time and addressing the above issues. However, such solution is expensive for developing countries. This paper aims at designing and implementing a crowd-sourced mobile phones-based solution to estimate the expected waiting time of a passenger in public transit systems, the prediction of the remaining time to get on/off a vehicle, and to construct a real time public transit schedule. Trans-Sense has been evaluated using real data collected for over 800 hours, on a daily basis, by different Android phones, and using different light rail transit lines at different time spans. The results show that Trans-Sense can achieve an average recall and precision of 95.35% and 90.1%, respectively, in discriminating lightrail stations. Moreover, the empirical distributions governing the different time delays affecting a passenger's total trip time enable predicting the right time of arrival of a passenger to her destination with an accuracy of 91.81%.In addition, the system estimates the stations dimensions with an accuracy of 95.71%.

MARL-FWC: Optimal Coordination of Freeway Traffic Control Measures

The objective of this article is to optimize the overall traffic flow on freeways using multiple ramp metering controls plus its complementary Dynamic Speed Limits (DSLs). An optimal freeway operation can be reached when minimizing the difference between the freeway density and the critical ratio for maximum traffic flow. In this article, a Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Freeways Control (MARL-FWC) system for ramps metering and DSLs is proposed. MARL-FWC introduces a new microscopic framework at the network level based on collaborative Markov Decision Process modeling (Markov game) and an associated cooperative Q-learning algorithm. The technique incorporates payoff propagation (Max-Plus algorithm) under the coordination graphs framework, particularly suited for optimal control purposes. MARL-FWC provides three control designs: fully independent, fully distributed, and centralized; suited for different network architectures. MARL-FWC was extensively tested in order to assess the proposed model of the joint payoff, as well as the global payoff. Experiments are conducted with heavy traffic flow under the renowned VISSIM traffic simulator to evaluate MARL-FWC. The experimental results show a significant decrease in the total travel time and an increase in the average speed (when compared with the base case) while maintaining an optimal traffic flow.

Deep learning is competing random forest in computational docking

Computational docking is the core process of computer-aided drug design; it aims at predicting the best orientation and conformation of a small drug molecule when bound to a target large protein receptor. The docking quality is typically measured by a scoring function: a mathematical predictive model that produces a score representing the binding free energy and hence the stability of the resulting complex molecule. We analyze the performance of both learning techniques on the scoring power, the ranking power, docking power, and screening power using the PDBbind 2013 database. For the scoring and ranking powers, the proposed learning scoring functions depend on a wide range of features (energy terms, pharmacophore, intermolecular) that entirely characterize the protein-ligand complexes. For the docking and screening powers, the proposed learning scoring functions depend on the intermolecular features of the RF-Score to utilize a larger number of training complexes. For the scoring power, the DL\_RF scoring function achieves Pearson's correlation coefficient between the predicted and experimentally measured binding affinities of 0.799 versus 0.758 of the RF scoring function. For the ranking power, the DL scoring function ranks the ligands bound to fixed target protein with accuracy 54% for the high-level ranking and with accuracy 78% for the low-level ranking while the RF scoring function achieves (46% and 62%) respectively. For the docking power, the DL\_RF scoring function has a success rate when the three best-scored ligand binding poses are considered within 2 \AA\ root-mean-square-deviation from the native pose of 36.0% versus 30.2% of the RF scoring function. For the screening power, the DL scoring function has an average enrichment factor and success rate at the top 1% level of (2.69 and 6.45%) respectively versus (1.61 and 4.84%) respectively of the RF scoring function.