The Matrix: A Bayesian learning model for LLMs

In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian learning model to understand the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs). We explore the optimization metric of LLMs, which is based on predicting the next token, and develop a novel model grounded in this principle. Our approach involves constructing an ideal generative text model represented by a multinomial transition probability matrix with a prior, and we examine how LLMs approximate this matrix. We discuss the continuity of the mapping between embeddings and multinomial distributions, and present the Dirichlet approximation theorem to approximate any prior. Additionally, we demonstrate how text generation by LLMs aligns with Bayesian learning principles and delve into the implications for in-context learning, specifically explaining why in-context learning emerges in larger models where prompts are considered as samples to be updated. Our findings indicate that the behavior of LLMs is consistent with Bayesian Learning, offering new insights into their functioning and potential applications.

Predicting Ground Reaction Force from Inertial Sensors

The study of ground reaction forces (GRF) is used to characterize the mechanical loading experienced by individuals in movements such as running, which is clinically applicable to identify athletes at risk for stress-related injuries. Our aim in this paper is to determine if data collected with inertial measurement units (IMUs), that can be worn by athletes during outdoor runs, can be used to predict GRF with sufficient accuracy to allow the analysis of its derived biomechanical variables (e.g., contact time and loading rate). In this paper, we consider lightweight approaches in contrast to state-of-the-art prediction using LSTM neural networks. Specifically, we compare use of LSTMs to k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) regression as well as propose a novel solution, SVD Embedding Regression (SER), using linear regression between singular value decomposition embeddings of IMUs data (input) and GRF data (output). We evaluate the accuracy of these techniques when using training data collected from different athletes, from the same athlete, or both, and we explore the use of acceleration and angular velocity data from sensors at different locations (sacrum and shanks). Our results illustrate that simple machine learning methods such as SER and KNN can be similarly accurate or more accurate than LSTM neural networks, with much faster training times and hyperparameter optimization; in particular, SER and KNN are more accurate when personal training data are available, and KNN comes with benefit of providing provenance of prediction. Notably, the use of personal data reduces prediction errors of all methods for most biomechanical variables.

Differentially Private Synthetic Control

Synthetic control is a causal inference tool used to estimate the treatment effects of an intervention by creating synthetic counterfactual data. This approach combines measurements from other similar observations (i.e., donor pool ) to predict a counterfactual time series of interest (i.e., target unit) by analyzing the relationship between the target and the donor pool before the intervention. As synthetic control tools are increasingly applied to sensitive or proprietary data, formal privacy protections are often required. In this work, we provide the first algorithms for differentially private synthetic control with explicit error bounds. Our approach builds upon tools from non-private synthetic control and differentially private empirical risk minimization. We provide upper and lower bounds on the sensitivity of the synthetic control query and provide explicit error bounds on the accuracy of our private synthetic control algorithms. We show that our algorithms produce accurate predictions for the target unit, and that the cost of privacy is small. Finally, we empirically evaluate the performance of our algorithm, and show favorable performance in a variety of parameter regimes, as well as providing guidance to practitioners for hyperparameter tuning.