Geometric Scaling of Bayesian Inference in LLMs

Recent work has shown that small transformers trained in controlled "wind-tunnel'' settings can implement exact Bayesian inference, and that their training dynamics produce a geometric substrate -- low-dimensional value manifolds and progressively orthogonal keys -- that encodes posterior structure. We investigate whether this geometric signature persists in production-grade language models. Across Pythia, Phi-2, Llama-3, and Mistral families, we find that last-layer value representations organize along a single dominant axis whose position strongly correlates with predictive entropy, and that domain-restricted prompts collapse this structure into the same low-dimensional manifolds observed in synthetic settings. To probe the role of this geometry, we perform targeted interventions on the entropy-aligned axis of Pythia-410M during in-context learning. Removing or perturbing this axis selectively disrupts the local uncertainty geometry, whereas matched random-axis interventions leave it intact. However, these single-layer manipulations do not produce proportionally specific degradation in Bayesian-like behavior, indicating that the geometry is a privileged readout of uncertainty rather than a singular computational bottleneck. Taken together, our results show that modern language models preserve the geometric substrate that enables Bayesian inference in wind tunnels, and organize their approximate Bayesian updates along this substrate.

Gradient Dynamics of Attention: How Cross-Entropy Sculpts Bayesian Manifolds

Transformers empirically perform precise probabilistic reasoning in carefully constructed ``Bayesian wind tunnels'' and in large-scale language models, yet the mechanisms by which gradient-based learning creates the required internal geometry remain opaque. We provide a complete first-order analysis of how cross-entropy training reshapes attention scores and value vectors in a transformer attention head. Our core result is an \emph{advantage-based routing law} for attention scores, \[ \frac{\partial L}{\partial s_{ij}} = α_{ij}\bigl(b_{ij}-\mathbb{E}_{α_i}[b]\bigr), \qquad b_{ij} := u_i^\top v_j, \] coupled with a \emph{responsibility-weighted update} for values, \[ Δv_j = -η\sum_i α_{ij} u_i, \] where $u_i$ is the upstream gradient at position $i$ and $α_{ij}$ are attention weights. These equations induce a positive feedback loop in which routing and content specialize together: queries route more strongly to values that are above-average for their error signal, and those values are pulled toward the queries that use them. We show that this coupled specialization behaves like a two-timescale EM procedure: attention weights implement an E-step (soft responsibilities), while values implement an M-step (responsibility-weighted prototype updates), with queries and keys adjusting the hypothesis frame. Through controlled simulations, including a sticky Markov-chain task where we compare a closed-form EM-style update to standard SGD, we demonstrate that the same gradient dynamics that minimize cross-entropy also sculpt the low-dimensional manifolds identified in our companion work as implementing Bayesian inference. This yields a unified picture in which optimization (gradient flow) gives rise to geometry (Bayesian manifolds), which in turn supports function (in-context probabilistic reasoning).

The Bayesian Geometry of Transformer Attention

Transformers often appear to perform Bayesian reasoning in context, but verifying this rigorously has been impossible: natural data lack analytic posteriors, and large models conflate reasoning with memorization. We address this by constructing \emph{Bayesian wind tunnels} -- controlled environments where the true posterior is known in closed form and memorization is provably impossible. In these settings, small transformers reproduce Bayesian posteriors with $10^{-3}$-$10^{-4}$ bit accuracy, while capacity-matched MLPs fail by orders of magnitude, establishing a clear architectural separation. Across two tasks -- bijection elimination and Hidden Markov Model (HMM) state tracking -- we find that transformers implement Bayesian inference through a consistent geometric mechanism: residual streams serve as the belief substrate, feed-forward networks perform the posterior update, and attention provides content-addressable routing. Geometric diagnostics reveal orthogonal key bases, progressive query-key alignment, and a low-dimensional value manifold parameterized by posterior entropy. During training this manifold unfurls while attention patterns remain stable, a \emph{frame-precision dissociation} predicted by recent gradient analyses. Taken together, these results demonstrate that hierarchical attention realizes Bayesian inference by geometric design, explaining both the necessity of attention and the failure of flat architectures. Bayesian wind tunnels provide a foundation for mechanistically connecting small, verifiable systems to reasoning phenomena observed in large language models.