Just Wing It: Optimal Estimation of Missing Mass in a Markovian Sequence

We study the problem of estimating the stationary mass -- also called the unigram mass -- that is missing from a single trajectory of a discrete-time, ergodic Markov chain. This problem has several applications -- for example, estimating the stationary missing mass is critical for accurately smoothing probability estimates in sequence models. While the classical Good--Turing estimator from the 1950s has appealing properties for i.i.d. data, it is known to be biased in the Markov setting, and other heuristic estimators do not come equipped with guarantees. Operating in the general setting in which the size of the state space may be much larger than the length $n$ of the trajectory, we develop a linear-runtime estimator called \emph{Windowed Good--Turing} (\textsc{WingIt}) and show that its risk decays as $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\mathsf{T_{mix}}/n)$, where $\mathsf{T_{mix}}$ denotes the mixing time of the chain in total variation distance. Notably, this rate is independent of the size of the state space and minimax-optimal up to a logarithmic factor in $n / \mathsf{T_{mix}}$. We also present a bound on the variance of the missing mass random variable, which may be of independent interest. We extend our estimator to approximate the stationary mass placed on elements occurring with small frequency in $X^n$. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our estimators both in simulations on canonical chains and on sequences constructed from a popular natural language corpus.

Balanced Data, Imbalanced Spectra: Unveiling Class Disparities with Spectral Imbalance

Classification models are expected to perform equally well for different classes, yet in practice, there are often large gaps in their performance. This issue of class bias is widely studied in cases of datasets with sample imbalance, but is relatively overlooked in balanced datasets. In this work, we introduce the concept of spectral imbalance in features as a potential source for class disparities and study the connections between spectral imbalance and class bias in both theory and practice. To build the connection between spectral imbalance and class gap, we develop a theoretical framework for studying class disparities and derive exact expressions for the per-class error in a high-dimensional mixture model setting. We then study this phenomenon in 11 different state-of-the-art pretrained encoders and show how our proposed framework can be used to compare the quality of encoders, as well as evaluate and combine data augmentation strategies to mitigate the issue. Our work sheds light on the class-dependent effects of learning, and provides new insights into how state-of-the-art pretrained features may have unknown biases that can be diagnosed through their spectra.

Towards Last-layer Retraining for Group Robustness with Fewer Annotations

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) of neural networks is prone to over-reliance on spurious correlations and poor generalization on minority groups. The recent deep feature reweighting (DFR) technique achieves state-of-the-art group robustness via simple last-layer retraining, but it requires held-out group and class annotations to construct a group-balanced reweighting dataset. In this work, we examine this impractical requirement and find that last-layer retraining can be surprisingly effective with no group annotations (other than for model selection) and only a handful of class annotations. We first show that last-layer retraining can greatly improve worst-group accuracy even when the reweighting dataset has only a small proportion of worst-group data. This implies a "free lunch" where holding out a subset of training data to retrain the last layer can substantially outperform ERM on the entire dataset with no additional data or annotations. To further improve group robustness, we introduce a lightweight method called selective last-layer finetuning (SELF), which constructs the reweighting dataset using misclassifications or disagreements. Our empirical and theoretical results present the first evidence that model disagreement upsamples worst-group data, enabling SELF to nearly match DFR on four well-established benchmarks across vision and language tasks with no group annotations and less than 3% of the held-out class annotations. Our code is available at https://github.com/tmlabonte/last-layer-retraining.

Faster Margin Maximization Rates for Generic Optimization Methods

First-order optimization methods tend to inherently favor certain solutions over others when minimizing a given training objective with multiple local optima. This phenomenon, known as implicit bias, plays a critical role in understanding the generalization capabilities of optimization algorithms. Recent research has revealed that gradient-descent-based methods exhibit an implicit bias for the $\ell_2$-maximal margin classifier in the context of separable binary classification. In contrast, generic optimization methods, such as mirror descent and steepest descent, have been shown to converge to maximal margin classifiers defined by alternative geometries. However, while gradient-descent-based algorithms demonstrate fast implicit bias rates, the implicit bias rates of generic optimization methods have been relatively slow. To address this limitation, in this paper, we present a series of state-of-the-art implicit bias rates for mirror descent and steepest descent algorithms. Our primary technique involves transforming a generic optimization algorithm into an online learning dynamic that solves a regularized bilinear game, providing a unified framework for analyzing the implicit bias of various optimization methods. The accelerated rates are derived leveraging the regret bounds of online learning algorithms within this game framework.

New Equivalences Between Interpolation and SVMs: Kernels and Structured Features

The support vector machine (SVM) is a supervised learning algorithm that finds a maximum-margin linear classifier, often after mapping the data to a high-dimensional feature space via the kernel trick. Recent work has demonstrated that in certain sufficiently overparameterized settings, the SVM decision function coincides exactly with the minimum-norm label interpolant. This phenomenon of support vector proliferation (SVP) is especially interesting because it allows us to understand SVM performance by leveraging recent analyses of harmless interpolation in linear and kernel models. However, previous work on SVP has made restrictive assumptions on the data/feature distribution and spectrum. In this paper, we present a new and flexible analysis framework for proving SVP in an arbitrary reproducing kernel Hilbert space with a flexible class of generative models for the labels. We present conditions for SVP for features in the families of general bounded orthonormal systems (e.g. Fourier features) and independent sub-Gaussian features. In both cases, we show that SVP occurs in many interesting settings not covered by prior work, and we leverage these results to prove novel generalization results for kernel SVM classification.

General Loss Functions Lead to (Approximate) Interpolation in High Dimensions

We provide a unified framework, applicable to a general family of convex losses and across binary and multiclass settings in the overparameterized regime, to approximately characterize the implicit bias of gradient descent in closed form. Specifically, we show that the implicit bias is approximated (but not exactly equal to) the minimum-norm interpolation in high dimensions, which arises from training on the squared loss. In contrast to prior work which was tailored to exponentially-tailed losses and used the intermediate support-vector-machine formulation, our framework directly builds on the primal-dual analysis of Ji and Telgarsky (2021), allowing us to provide new approximate equivalences for general convex losses through a novel sensitivity analysis. Our framework also recovers existing exact equivalence results for exponentially-tailed losses across binary and multiclass settings. Finally, we provide evidence for the tightness of our techniques, which we use to demonstrate the effect of certain loss functions designed for out-of-distribution problems on the closed-form solution.

Estimating Optimal Policy Value in General Linear Contextual Bandits

In many bandit problems, the maximal reward achievable by a policy is often unknown in advance. We consider the problem of estimating the optimal policy value in the sublinear data regime before the optimal policy is even learnable. We refer to this as $V^*$ estimation. It was recently shown that fast $V^*$ estimation is possible but only in disjoint linear bandits with Gaussian covariates. Whether this is possible for more realistic context distributions has remained an open and important question for tasks such as model selection. In this paper, we first provide lower bounds showing that this general problem is hard. However, under stronger assumptions, we give an algorithm and analysis proving that $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{d})$ sublinear estimation of $V^*$ is indeed information-theoretically possible, where $d$ is the dimension. We then present a more practical, computationally efficient algorithm that estimates a problem-dependent upper bound on $V^*$ that holds for general distributions and is tight when the context distribution is Gaussian. We prove our algorithm requires only $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{d})$ samples to estimate the upper bound. We use this upper bound and the estimator to obtain novel and improved guarantees for several applications in bandit model selection and testing for treatment effects.

Adaptive Oracle-Efficient Online Learning

The classical algorithms for online learning and decision-making have the benefit of achieving the optimal performance guarantees, but suffer from computational complexity limitations when implemented at scale. More recent sophisticated techniques, which we refer to as oracle-efficient methods, address this problem by dispatching to an offline optimization oracle that can search through an exponentially-large (or even infinite) space of decisions and select that which performed the best on any dataset. But despite the benefits of computational feasibility, oracle-efficient algorithms exhibit one major limitation: while performing well in worst-case settings, they do not adapt well to friendly environments. In this paper we consider two such friendly scenarios, (a) "small-loss" problems and (b) IID data. We provide a new framework for designing follow-the-perturbed-leader algorithms that are oracle-efficient and adapt well to the small-loss environment, under a particular condition which we call approximability (which is spiritually related to sufficient conditions provided by Dud\'{i}k et al., [2020]). We identify a series of real-world settings, including online auctions and transductive online classification, for which approximability holds. We also extend the algorithm to an IID data setting and establish a "best-of-both-worlds" bound in the oracle-efficient setting.

The good, the bad and the ugly sides of data augmentation: An implicit spectral regularization perspective

Data augmentation (DA) is a powerful workhorse for bolstering performance in modern machine learning. Specific augmentations like translations and scaling in computer vision are traditionally believed to improve generalization by generating new (artificial) data from the same distribution. However, this traditional viewpoint does not explain the success of prevalent augmentations in modern machine learning (e.g. randomized masking, cutout, mixup), that greatly alter the training data distribution. In this work, we develop a new theoretical framework to characterize the impact of a general class of DA on underparameterized and overparameterized linear model generalization. Our framework reveals that DA induces implicit spectral regularization through a combination of two distinct effects: a) manipulating the relative proportion of eigenvalues of the data covariance matrix in a training-data-dependent manner, and b) uniformly boosting the entire spectrum of the data covariance matrix through ridge regression. These effects, when applied to popular augmentations, give rise to a wide variety of phenomena, including discrepancies in generalization between over-parameterized and under-parameterized regimes and differences between regression and classification tasks. Our framework highlights the nuanced and sometimes surprising impacts of DA on generalization, and serves as a testbed for novel augmentation design.

Harmless interpolation in regression and classification with structured features

Overparametrized neural networks tend to perfectly fit noisy training data yet generalize well on test data. Inspired by this empirical observation, recent work has sought to understand this phenomenon of benign overfitting or harmless interpolation in the much simpler linear model. Previous theoretical work critically assumes that either the data features are statistically independent or the input data is high-dimensional; this precludes general nonparametric settings with structured feature maps. In this paper, we present a general and flexible framework for upper bounding regression and classification risk in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. A key contribution is that our framework describes precise sufficient conditions on the data Gram matrix under which harmless interpolation occurs. Our results recover prior independent-features results (with a much simpler analysis), but they furthermore show that harmless interpolation can occur in more general settings such as features that are a bounded orthonormal system. Furthermore, our results show an asymptotic separation between classification and regression performance in a manner that was previously only shown for Gaussian features.