Localized Uncertainty Attacks

The susceptibility of deep learning models to adversarial perturbations has stirred renewed attention in adversarial examples resulting in a number of attacks. However, most of these attacks fail to encompass a large spectrum of adversarial perturbations that are imperceptible to humans. In this paper, we present localized uncertainty attacks, a novel class of threat models against deterministic and stochastic classifiers. Under this threat model, we create adversarial examples by perturbing only regions in the inputs where a classifier is uncertain. To find such regions, we utilize the predictive uncertainty of the classifier when the classifier is stochastic or, we learn a surrogate model to amortize the uncertainty when it is deterministic. Unlike $\ell_p$ ball or functional attacks which perturb inputs indiscriminately, our targeted changes can be less perceptible. When considered under our threat model, these attacks still produce strong adversarial examples; with the examples retaining a greater degree of similarity with the inputs.

Stochastic Aggregation in Graph Neural Networks

Graph neural networks (GNNs) manifest pathologies including over-smoothing and limited discriminating power as a result of suboptimally expressive aggregating mechanisms. We herein present a unifying framework for stochastic aggregation (STAG) in GNNs, where noise is (adaptively) injected into the aggregation process from the neighborhood to form node embeddings. We provide theoretical arguments that STAG models, with little overhead, remedy both of the aforementioned problems. In addition to fixed-noise models, we also propose probabilistic versions of STAG models and a variational inference framework to learn the noise posterior. We conduct illustrative experiments clearly targeting oversmoothing and multiset aggregation limitations. Furthermore, STAG enhances general performance of GNNs demonstrated by competitive performance in common citation and molecule graph benchmark datasets.

Variational Auto-Regressive Gaussian Processes for Continual Learning

This paper proposes Variational Auto-Regressive Gaussian Process (VAR-GP), a principled Bayesian updating mechanism to incorporate new data for sequential tasks in the context of continual learning. It relies on a novel auto-regressive characterization of the variational distribution and inference is made scalable using sparse inducing point approximations. Experiments on standard continual learning benchmarks demonstrate the ability of VAR-GPs to perform well at new tasks without compromising performance on old ones, yielding competitive results to state-of-the-art methods. In addition, we qualitatively show how VAR-GP improves the predictive entropy estimates as we train on new tasks. Further, we conduct a thorough ablation study to verify the effectiveness of inferential choices.

Hierarchical Gaussian Process Priors for Bayesian Neural Network Weights

Probabilistic neural networks are typically modeled with independent weight priors, which do not capture weight correlations in the prior and do not provide a parsimonious interface to express properties in function space. A desirable class of priors would represent weights compactly, capture correlations between weights, facilitate calibrated reasoning about uncertainty, and allow inclusion of prior knowledge about the function space such as periodicity or dependence on contexts such as inputs. To this end, this paper introduces two innovations: (i) a Gaussian process-based hierarchical model for network weights based on unit embeddings that can flexibly encode correlated weight structures, and (ii) input-dependent versions of these weight priors that can provide convenient ways to regularize the function space through the use of kernels defined on contextual inputs. We show these models provide desirable test-time uncertainty estimates on out-of-distribution data, demonstrate cases of modeling inductive biases for neural networks with kernels which help both interpolation and extrapolation from training data, and demonstrate competitive predictive performance on an active learning benchmark.

Generalized Hidden Parameter MDPs Transferable Model-based RL in a Handful of Trials

There is broad interest in creating RL agents that can solve many (related) tasks and adapt to new tasks and environments after initial training. Model-based RL leverages learned surrogate models that describe dynamics and rewards of individual tasks, such that planning in a good surrogate can lead to good control of the true system. Rather than solving each task individually from scratch, hierarchical models can exploit the fact that tasks are often related by (unobserved) causal factors of variation in order to achieve efficient generalization, as in learning how the mass of an item affects the force required to lift it can generalize to previously unobserved masses. We propose Generalized Hidden Parameter MDPs (GHP-MDPs) that describe a family of MDPs where both dynamics and reward can change as a function of hidden parameters that vary across tasks. The GHP-MDP augments model-based RL with latent variables that capture these hidden parameters, facilitating transfer across tasks. We also explore a variant of the model that incorporates explicit latent structure mirroring the causal factors of variation across tasks (for instance: agent properties, environmental factors, and goals). We experimentally demonstrate state-of-the-art performance and sample-efficiency on a new challenging MuJoCo task using reward and dynamics latent spaces, while beating a previous state-of-the-art baseline with $>10\times$ less data. Using test-time inference of the latent variables, our approach generalizes in a single episode to novel combinations of dynamics and reward, and to novel rewards.

Applying SVGD to Bayesian Neural Networks for Cyclical Time-Series Prediction and Inference

A regression-based BNN model is proposed to predict spatiotemporal quantities like hourly rider demand with calibrated uncertainties. The main contributions of this paper are (i) A feed-forward deterministic neural network (DetNN) architecture that predicts cyclical time series data with sensitivity to anomalous forecasting events; (ii) A Bayesian framework applying SVGD to train large neural networks for such tasks, capable of producing time series predictions as well as measures of uncertainty surrounding the predictions. Experiments show that the proposed BNN reduces average estimation error by 10% across 8 U.S. cities compared to a fine-tuned multilayer perceptron (MLP), and 4% better than the same network architecture trained without SVGD.

Efficient transfer learning and online adaptation with latent variable models for continuous control

Traditional model-based RL relies on hand-specified or learned models of transition dynamics of the environment. These methods are sample efficient and facilitate learning in the real world but fail to generalize to subtle variations in the underlying dynamics, e.g., due to differences in mass, friction, or actuators across robotic agents or across time. We propose using variational inference to learn an explicit latent representation of unknown environment properties that accelerates learning and facilitates generalization on novel environments at test time. We use Online Bayesian Inference of these learned latents to rapidly adapt online to changes in environments without retaining large replay buffers of recent data. Combined with a neural network ensemble that models dynamics and captures uncertainty over dynamics, our approach demonstrates positive transfer during training and online adaptation on the continuous control task HalfCheetah.

Pyro: Deep Universal Probabilistic Programming

Pyro is a probabilistic programming language built on Python as a platform for developing advanced probabilistic models in AI research. To scale to large datasets and high-dimensional models, Pyro uses stochastic variational inference algorithms and probability distributions built on top of PyTorch, a modern GPU-accelerated deep learning framework. To accommodate complex or model-specific algorithmic behavior, Pyro leverages Poutine, a library of composable building blocks for modifying the behavior of probabilistic programs.

Probabilistic Meta-Representations Of Neural Networks

Existing Bayesian treatments of neural networks are typically characterized by weak prior and approximate posterior distributions according to which all the weights are drawn independently. Here, we consider a richer prior distribution in which units in the network are represented by latent variables, and the weights between units are drawn conditionally on the values of the collection of those variables. This allows rich correlations between related weights, and can be seen as realizing a function prior with a Bayesian complexity regularizer ensuring simple solutions. We illustrate the resulting meta-representations and representations, elucidating the power of this prior.

Pathwise Derivatives for Multivariate Distributions

We exploit the link between the transport equation and derivatives of expectations to construct efficient pathwise gradient estimators for multivariate distributions. We focus on two main threads. First, we use null solutions of the transport equation to construct adaptive control variates that can be used to construct gradient estimators with reduced variance. Second, we consider the case of multivariate mixture distributions. In particular we show how to compute pathwise derivatives for mixtures of multivariate Normal distributions with arbitrary means and diagonal covariances. We demonstrate in a variety of experiments in the context of variational inference that our gradient estimators can outperform other methods, especially in high dimensions.