Near-optimal Offline and Streaming Algorithms for Learning Non-Linear Dynamical Systems

We consider the setting of vector valued non-linear dynamical systems $X_{t+1} = \phi(A^* X_t) + \eta_t$, where $\eta_t$ is unbiased noise and $\phi : \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}$ is a known link function that satisfies certain {\em expansivity property}. The goal is to learn $A^*$ from a single trajectory $X_1,\cdots,X_T$ of {\em dependent or correlated} samples. While the problem is well-studied in the linear case, where $\phi$ is identity, with optimal error rates even for non-mixing systems, existing results in the non-linear case hold only for mixing systems. In this work, we improve existing results for learning nonlinear systems in a number of ways: a) we provide the first offline algorithm that can learn non-linear dynamical systems without the mixing assumption, b) we significantly improve upon the sample complexity of existing results for mixing systems, c) in the much harder one-pass, streaming setting we study a SGD with Reverse Experience Replay ($\mathsf{SGD-RER}$) method, and demonstrate that for mixing systems, it achieves the same sample complexity as our offline algorithm, d) we justify the expansivity assumption by showing that for the popular ReLU link function -- a non-expansive but easy to learn link function with i.i.d. samples -- any method would require exponentially many samples (with respect to dimension of $X_t$) from the dynamical system. We validate our results via. simulations and demonstrate that a naive application of SGD can be highly sub-optimal. Indeed, our work demonstrates that for correlated data, specialized methods designed for the dependency structure in data can significantly outperform standard SGD based methods.

Streaming Linear System Identification with Reverse Experience Replay

We consider the problem of estimating a stochastic linear time-invariant (LTI) dynamical system from a single trajectory via streaming algorithms. The problem is equivalent to estimating the parameters of vector auto-regressive (VAR) models encountered in time series analysis (Hamilton (2020)). A recent sequence of papers (Faradonbeh et al., 2018; Simchowitz et al., 2018; Sarkar and Rakhlin, 2019) show that ordinary least squares (OLS) regression can be used to provide optimal finite time estimator for the problem. However, such techniques apply for offline setting where the optimal solution of OLS is available apriori. But, in many problems of interest as encountered in reinforcement learning (RL), it is important to estimate the parameters on the go using gradient oracle. This task is challenging since standard methods like SGD might not perform well when using stochastic gradients from correlated data points (Gy\"orfi and Walk, 1996; Nagaraj et al., 2020). In this work, we propose a novel algorithm, SGD with Reverse Experience Replay (SGD-RER), that is inspired by the experience replay (ER) technique popular in the RL literature (Lin, 1992). SGD-RER divides data into small buffers and runs SGD backwards on the data stored in the individual buffers. We show that this algorithm exactly deconstructs the dependency structure and obtains information theoretically optimal guarantees for both parameter error and prediction error for standard problem settings. Thus, we provide the first - to the best of our knowledge - optimal SGD-style algorithm for the classical problem of linear system identification aka VAR model estimation. Our work demonstrates that knowledge of dependency structure can aid us in designing algorithms which can deconstruct the dependencies between samples optimally in an online fashion.