Addressing distributional shifts in operations management: The case of order fulfillment in customized production

To meet order fulfillment targets, manufacturers seek to optimize production schedules. Machine learning can support this objective by predicting throughput times on production lines given order specifications. However, this is challenging when manufacturers produce customized products because customization often leads to changes in the probability distribution of operational data -- so-called distributional shifts. Distributional shifts can harm the performance of predictive models when deployed to future customer orders with new specifications. The literature provides limited advice on how such distributional shifts can be addressed in operations management. Here, we propose a data-driven approach based on adversarial learning and job shop scheduling, which allows us to account for distributional shifts in manufacturing settings with high degrees of product customization. We empirically validate our proposed approach using real-world data from a job shop production that supplies large metal components to an oil platform construction yard. Across an extensive series of numerical experiments, we find that our adversarial learning approach outperforms common baselines. Overall, this paper shows how production managers can improve their decision-making under distributional shifts.

Fair Off-Policy Learning from Observational Data

Businesses and organizations must ensure that their algorithmic decision-making is fair in order to meet legislative, ethical, and societal demands. For example, decision-making in automated hiring must not discriminate with respect to gender or race. To achieve this, prior research has contributed approaches that ensure algorithmic fairness in machine learning predictions, while comparatively little effort has focused on algorithmic fairness in decision models, specifically off-policy learning. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for fair off-policy learning: we learn decision rules from observational data under different notions of fairness, where we explicitly assume that observational data were collected under a different -- potentially biased -- behavioral policy. For this, we first formalize different fairness notions for off-policy learning. We then propose a machine learning approach to learn optimal policies under these fairness notions. Specifically, we reformulate the fairness notions into unconstrained learning objectives that can be estimated from finite samples. Here, we leverage machine learning to minimize the objective constrained on a fair representation of the data, so that the resulting policies satisfy our fairness notions. We further provide theoretical guarantees in form of generalization bounds for the finite-sample version of our framework. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework through extensive numerical experiments using both simulated and real-world data. As a result, our work enables algorithmic decision-making in a wide array of practical applications where fairness must ensured.

QA Domain Adaptation using Hidden Space Augmentation and Self-Supervised Contrastive Adaptation

Question answering (QA) has recently shown impressive results for answering questions from customized domains. Yet, a common challenge is to adapt QA models to an unseen target domain. In this paper, we propose a novel self-supervised framework called QADA for QA domain adaptation. QADA introduces a novel data augmentation pipeline used to augment training QA samples. Different from existing methods, we enrich the samples via hidden space augmentation. For questions, we introduce multi-hop synonyms and sample augmented token embeddings with Dirichlet distributions. For contexts, we develop an augmentation method which learns to drop context spans via a custom attentive sampling strategy. Additionally, contrastive learning is integrated in the proposed self-supervised adaptation framework QADA. Unlike existing approaches, we generate pseudo labels and propose to train the model via a novel attention-based contrastive adaptation method. The attention weights are used to build informative features for discrepancy estimation that helps the QA model separate answers and generalize across source and target domains. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to leverage hidden space augmentation and attention-based contrastive adaptation for self-supervised domain adaptation in QA. Our evaluation shows that QADA achieves considerable improvements on multiple target datasets over state-of-the-art baselines in QA domain adaptation.

Normalizing Flows for Interventional Density Estimation

Existing machine learning methods for causal inference usually estimate quantities expressed via the mean of potential outcomes (e.g., average treatment effect). However, such quantities do not capture the full information about the distribution of potential outcomes. In this work, we estimate the density of potential outcomes after interventions from observational data. Specifically, we propose a novel, fully-parametric deep learning method for this purpose, called Interventional Normalizing Flows. Our Interventional Normalizing Flows offer a properly normalized density estimator. For this, we introduce an iterative training of two normalizing flows, namely (i) a teacher flow for estimation of nuisance parameters and (ii) a student flow for parametric estimation of the density of potential outcomes. For efficient and doubly-robust estimation of the student flow parameters, we develop a custom tractable optimization objective based on a one-step bias correction. Across various experiments, we demonstrate that our Interventional Normalizing Flows are expressive and highly effective, and scale well with both sample size and high-dimensional confounding. To the best of our knowledge, our Interventional Normalizing Flows are the first fully-parametric, deep learning method for density estimation of potential outcomes.

Estimating individual treatment effects under unobserved confounding using binary instruments

Estimating individual treatment effects (ITEs) from observational data is relevant in many fields such as personalized medicine. However, in practice, the treatment assignment is usually confounded by unobserved variables and thus introduces bias. A remedy to remove the bias is the use of instrumental variables (IVs). Such settings are widespread in medicine (e.g., trials where compliance is used as binary IV). In this paper, we propose a novel, multiply robust machine learning framework, called MRIV, for estimating ITEs using binary IVs and thus yield an unbiased ITE estimator. Different from previous work for binary IVs, our framework estimates the ITE directly via a pseudo outcome regression. (1) We provide a theoretical analysis where we show that our framework yields multiply robust convergence rates: our ITE estimator achieves fast convergence even if several nuisance estimators converge slowly. (2) We further show that our framework asymptotically outperforms state-of-the-art plug-in IV methods for ITE estimation. (3) We build upon our theoretical results and propose a tailored deep neural network architecture called MRIV-Net for ITE estimation using binary IVs. Across various computational experiments, we demonstrate empirically that our MRIV-Net achieves state-of-the-art performance. To the best of our knowledge, our MRIV is the first machine learning framework for estimating ITEs in the binary IV setting shown to be multiply robust.

Locating disparities in machine learning

Machine learning was repeatedly proven to provide predictions with disparate outcomes, in which subgroups of the population (e.g., defined by age, gender, or other sensitive attributes) are systematically disadvantaged. Previous literature has focused on detecting such disparities through statistical procedures for when the sensitive attribute is specified a priori. However, this limits applicability in real-world settings where datasets are high dimensional and, on top of that, sensitive attributes may be unknown. As a remedy, we propose a data-driven framework called Automatic Location of Disparities (ALD) which aims at locating disparities in machine learning. ALD meets several demands from machine learning practice: ALD (1) is applicable to arbitrary machine learning classifiers; (2) operates on different definitions of disparities (e.g., statistical parity or equalized odds); (3) deals with both categorical and continuous predictors; (4) is suitable to handle high-dimensional settings; and (5) even identifies disparities due to intersectionality where disparities arise from complex and multi-way interactions (e.g., age above 60 and female). ALD produces interpretable fairness reports as output. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ALD based on both synthetic and real-world datasets. As a result, ALD helps practitioners and researchers of algorithmic fairness to detect disparities in machine learning algorithms, so that disparate -- or even unfair -- outcomes can be mitigated. Moreover, ALD supports practitioners in conducting algorithmic audits and protecting individuals from discrimination.

Detecting User Exits from Online Behavior: A Duration-Dependent Latent State Model

In order to steer e-commerce users towards making a purchase, marketers rely upon predictions of when users exit without purchasing. Previously, such predictions were based upon hidden Markov models (HMMs) due to their ability of modeling latent shopping phases with different user intents. In this work, we develop a duration-dependent hidden Markov model. In contrast to traditional HMMs, it explicitly models the duration of latent states and thereby allows states to become "sticky". The proposed model is superior to prior HMMs in detecting user exits: out of 100 user exits without purchase, it correctly identifies an additional 18. This helps marketers in better managing the online behavior of e-commerce customers. The reason for the superior performance of our model is the duration dependence, which allows our model to recover latent states that are characterized by a distorted sense of time. We finally provide a theoretical explanation for this, which builds upon the concept of "flow".

Algorithmic Fairness in Business Analytics: Directions for Research and Practice

The extensive adoption of business analytics (BA) has brought financial gains and increased efficiencies. However, these advances have simultaneously drawn attention to rising legal and ethical challenges when BA inform decisions with fairness implications. As a response to these concerns, the emerging study of algorithmic fairness deals with algorithmic outputs that may result in disparate outcomes or other forms of injustices for subgroups of the population, especially those who have been historically marginalized. Fairness is relevant on the basis of legal compliance, social responsibility, and utility; if not adequately and systematically addressed, unfair BA systems may lead to societal harms and may also threaten an organization's own survival, its competitiveness, and overall performance. This paper offers a forward-looking, BA-focused review of algorithmic fairness. We first review the state-of-the-art research on sources and measures of bias, as well as bias mitigation algorithms. We then provide a detailed discussion of the utility-fairness relationship, emphasizing that the frequent assumption of a trade-off between these two constructs is often mistaken or short-sighted. Finally, we chart a path forward by identifying opportunities for business scholars to address impactful, open challenges that are key to the effective and responsible deployment of BA.

Contrastive Learning for Unsupervised Domain Adaptation of Time Series

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) aims at learning a machine learning model using a labeled source domain that performs well on a similar yet different, unlabeled target domain. UDA is important in many applications such as medicine, where it is used to adapt risk scores across different patient cohorts. In this paper, we develop a novel framework for UDA of time series data, called CLUDA. Specifically, we propose a contrastive learning framework to learn domain-invariant semantics in multivariate time series, so that these preserve label information for the prediction task. In our framework, we further capture semantic variation between source and target domain via nearest-neighbor contrastive learning. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first framework to learn domain-invariant semantic information for UDA of time series data. We evaluate our framework using large-scale, real-world datasets with medical time series (i.e., MIMIC-IV and AmsterdamUMCdb) to demonstrate its effectiveness and show that it achieves state-of-the-art performance for time series UDA.

Causal Transformer for Estimating Counterfactual Outcomes

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is relevant for many applications (e.g., personalized medicine). Yet, state-of-the-art methods build upon simple long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, thus rendering inferences for complex, long-range dependencies challenging. In this paper, we develop a novel Causal Transformer for estimating counterfactual outcomes over time. Our model is specifically designed to capture complex, long-range dependencies among time-varying confounders. For this, we combine three transformer subnetworks with separate inputs for time-varying covariates, previous treatments, and previous outcomes into a joint network with in-between cross-attentions. We further develop a custom, end-to-end training procedure for our Causal Transformer. Specifically, we propose a novel counterfactual domain confusion loss to address confounding bias: it aims to learn adversarial balanced representations, so that they are predictive of the next outcome but non-predictive of the current treatment assignment. We evaluate our Causal Transformer based on synthetic and real-world datasets, where it achieves superior performance over current baselines. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work proposing transformer-based architecture for estimating counterfactual outcomes from longitudinal data.