Modeling Narrative Archetypes in Conspiratorial Narratives: Insights from Singapore-Based Telegram Groups

Conspiratorial discourse is increasingly embedded within digital communication ecosystems, yet its structure and spread remain difficult to study. This work analyzes conspiratorial narratives in Singapore-based Telegram groups, showing that such content is woven into everyday discussions rather than confined to isolated echo chambers. We propose a two-stage computational framework. First, we fine-tune RoBERTa-large to classify messages as conspiratorial or not, achieving an F1-score of 0.866 on 2,000 expert-labeled messages. Second, we build a signed belief graph in which nodes represent messages and edge signs reflect alignment in belief labels, weighted by textual similarity. We introduce a Signed Belief Graph Neural Network (SiBeGNN) that uses a Sign Disentanglement Loss to learn embeddings that separate ideological alignment from stylistic features. Using hierarchical clustering on these embeddings, we identify seven narrative archetypes across 553,648 messages: legal topics, medical concerns, media discussions, finance, contradictions in authority, group moderation, and general chat. SiBeGNN yields stronger clustering quality (cDBI = 8.38) than baseline methods (13.60 to 67.27), supported by 88 percent inter-rater agreement in expert evaluations. Our analysis shows that conspiratorial messages appear not only in clusters focused on skepticism or distrust, but also within routine discussions of finance, law, and everyday matters. These findings challenge common assumptions about online radicalization by demonstrating that conspiratorial discourse operates within ordinary social interaction. The proposed framework advances computational methods for belief-driven discourse analysis and offers applications for stance detection, political communication studies, and content moderation policy.

Interpersonal Theory of Suicide as a Lens to Examine Suicidal Ideation in Online Spaces

Suicide is a critical global public health issue, with millions experiencing suicidal ideation (SI) each year. Online spaces enable individuals to express SI and seek peer support. While prior research has revealed the potential of detecting SI using machine learning and natural language analysis, a key limitation is the lack of a theoretical framework to understand the underlying factors affecting high-risk suicidal intent. To bridge this gap, we adopted the Interpersonal Theory of Suicide (IPTS) as an analytic lens to analyze 59,607 posts from Reddit's r/SuicideWatch, categorizing them into SI dimensions (Loneliness, Lack of Reciprocal Love, Self Hate, and Liability) and risk factors (Thwarted Belongingness, Perceived Burdensomeness, and Acquired Capability of Suicide). We found that high-risk SI posts express planning and attempts, methods and tools, and weaknesses and pain. In addition, we also examined the language of supportive responses through psycholinguistic and content analyses to find that individuals respond differently to different stages of Suicidal Ideation (SI) posts. Finally, we explored the role of AI chatbots in providing effective supportive responses to suicidal ideation posts. We found that although AI improved structural coherence, expert evaluations highlight persistent shortcomings in providing dynamic, personalized, and deeply empathetic support. These findings underscore the need for careful reflection and deeper understanding in both the development and consideration of AI-driven interventions for effective mental health support.