One-Sided Quantile Coupling for Flow Matching

Flow Matching trains continuous-time generative models by regressing the velocity field of a probability path between a simple source distribution and a target data distribution. The coupling that pairs source and target samples strongly affects optimization and sample quality, but structured couplings typically rely on mini-batch transport or assignment procedures whose cost grows at least quadratically in batch size. We propose Quantile Coupling Flow Matching (QC-FM), a lightweight one-sided coupling: rather than matching two pre-sampled batches, it samples only the data batch and constructs each paired source directly. Data ranks projected along a small number of random orthogonal directions are mapped to Gaussian quantiles, and the latent code is completed in the orthogonal complement by conditional Gaussian sampling. The construction is one-dimensional per slice, so the coupling requires no pairwise cost matrix and no assignment to solve. We show that, for each drawn frame, this coupling eliminates the irreducible regression variance along every selected slice and makes the ideal flow exactly straight there, while leaving the sampling prior unchanged: generation still starts from the standard Gaussian, and the training source deviates from it only through the copula of the slice codes, whose transport cost we bound. For training, we apply QC to an anchor subset and complete the remaining source slots with exact Gaussian samples, retaining the QC bias while preserving an explicit signal from the Baseline coupling. Across CIFAR-10, CelebA, FFHQ, and ImageNet-64, QC-FM improves over the Baseline under matched training budgets, reducing FID by up to 12.9%, and outperforms OT-CFM on all four datasets. These results suggest that preserving projected rank structure is a simple and scalable way to inject useful geometric bias into FM couplings without solving a mini-batch transport problem.

Diffolio: A Diffusion Model for Multivariate Probabilistic Financial Time-Series Forecasting and Portfolio Construction

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial in multivariate financial time-series for constructing efficient portfolios that account for complex cross-sectional dependencies. In this paper, we propose Diffolio, a diffusion model designed for multivariate financial time-series forecasting and portfolio construction. Diffolio employs a denoising network with a hierarchical attention architecture, comprising both asset-level and market-level layers. Furthermore, to better reflect cross-sectional correlations, we introduce a correlation-guided regularizer informed by a stable estimate of the target correlation matrix. This structure effectively extracts salient features not only from historical returns but also from asset-specific and systematic covariates, significantly enhancing the performance of forecasts and portfolios. Experimental results on the daily excess returns of 12 industry portfolios show that Diffolio outperforms various probabilistic forecasting baselines in multivariate forecasting accuracy and portfolio performance. Moreover, in portfolio experiments, portfolios constructed from Diffolio's forecasts show consistently robust performance, thereby outperforming those from benchmarks by achieving higher Sharpe ratios for the mean-variance tangency portfolio and higher certainty equivalents for the growth-optimal portfolio. These results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed Diffolio in terms of not only statistical accuracy but also economic significance.

Forecasting VIX using interpretable Kolmogorov-Arnold networks

This paper presents the use of Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) for forecasting the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). Unlike traditional MLP-based neural networks that are often criticized for their black-box nature, KAN offers an interpretable approach via learnable spline-based activation functions and symbolification. Based on a parsimonious architecture with symbolic functions, KAN expresses a forecast of the VIX as a closed-form in terms of explanatory variables, and provide interpretable insights into key characteristics of the VIX, including mean reversion and the leverage effect. Through in-depth empirical analysis across multiple datasets and periods, we show that KANs achieve competitive forecasting performance while requiring significantly fewer parameters compared to MLP-based neural network models. Our findings demonstrate the capacity and potential of KAN as an interpretable financial time-series forecasting method.