TEFL: Prediction-Residual-Guided Rolling Forecasting for Multi-Horizon Time Series

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in domains such as transportation, energy, and meteorology. Despite their success, modern deep forecasting models are typically trained to minimize point-wise prediction loss without leveraging the rich information contained in past prediction residuals from rolling forecasts - residuals that reflect persistent biases, unmodeled patterns, or evolving dynamics. We propose TEFL (Temporal Error Feedback Learning), a unified learning framework that explicitly incorporates these historical residuals into the forecasting pipeline during both training and evaluation. To make this practical in deep multi-step settings, we address three key challenges: (1) selecting observable multi-step residuals under the partial observability of rolling forecasts, (2) integrating them through a lightweight low-rank adapter to preserve efficiency and prevent overfitting, and (3) designing a two-stage training procedure that jointly optimizes the base forecaster and error module. Extensive experiments across 10 real-world datasets and 5 backbone architectures show that TEFL consistently improves accuracy, reducing MAE by 5-10% on average. Moreover, it demonstrates strong robustness under abrupt changes and distribution shifts, with error reductions exceeding 10% (up to 19.5%) in challenging scenarios. By embedding residual-based feedback directly into the learning process, TEFL offers a simple, general, and effective enhancement to modern deep forecasting systems.

Physics-aligned Schrödinger bridge

The reconstruction of physical fields from sparse measurements is pivotal in both scientific research and engineering applications. Traditional methods are increasingly supplemented by deep learning models due to their efficacy in extracting features from data. However, except for the low accuracy on complex physical systems, these models often fail to comply with essential physical constraints, such as governing equations and boundary conditions. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a novel data-driven field reconstruction framework, termed the Physics-aligned Schr\"{o}dinger Bridge (PalSB). This framework leverages a diffusion Schr\"{o}dinger bridge mechanism that is specifically tailored to align with physical constraints. The PalSB approach incorporates a dual-stage training process designed to address both local reconstruction mapping and global physical principles. Additionally, a boundary-aware sampling technique is implemented to ensure adherence to physical boundary conditions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PalSB through its application to three complex nonlinear systems: cylinder flow from Particle Image Velocimetry experiments, two-dimensional turbulence, and a reaction-diffusion system. The results reveal that PalSB not only achieves higher accuracy but also exhibits enhanced compliance with physical constraints compared to existing methods. This highlights PalSB's capability to generate high-quality representations of intricate physical interactions, showcasing its potential for advancing field reconstruction techniques.