Dynamic Multi-period Experts for Online Time Series Forecasting

Online Time Series Forecasting (OTSF) requires models to continuously adapt to concept drift. However, existing methods often treat concept drift as a monolithic phenomenon. To address this limitation, we first redefine concept drift by categorizing it into two distinct types: Recurring Drift, where previously seen patterns reappear, and Emergent Drift, where entirely new patterns emerge. We then propose DynaME (Dynamic Multi-period Experts), a novel hybrid framework designed to effectively address this dual nature of drift. For Recurring Drift, DynaME employs a committee of specialized experts that are dynamically fitted to the most relevant historical periodic patterns at each time step. For Emergent Drift, the framework detects high-uncertainty scenarios and shifts reliance to a stable, general expert. Extensive experiments on several benchmark datasets and backbones demonstrate that DynaME effectively adapts to both concept drifts and significantly outperforms existing baselines.

Harmonic Dataset Distillation for Time Series Forecasting

Time Series forecasting (TSF) in the modern era faces significant computational and storage cost challenges due to the massive scale of real-world data. Dataset Distillation (DD), a paradigm that synthesizes a small, compact dataset to achieve training performance comparable to that of the original dataset, has emerged as a promising solution. However, conventional DD methods are not tailored for time series and suffer from architectural overfitting and limited scalability. To address these issues, we propose Harmonic Dataset Distillation for Time Series Forecasting (HDT). HDT decomposes the time series into its sinusoidal basis through the FFT and aligns the core periodic structure by Harmonic Matching. Since this process operates in the frequency domain, all updates during distillation are applied globally without disrupting temporal dependencies of time series. Extensive experiments demonstrate that HDT achieves strong cross-architecture generalization and scalability, validating its practicality for large-scale, real-world applications.