Hierarchical Forecasting at Scale

Existing hierarchical forecasting techniques scale poorly when the number of time series increases. We propose to learn a coherent forecast for millions of time series with a single bottom-level forecast model by using a sparse loss function that directly optimizes the hierarchical product and/or temporal structure. The benefit of our sparse hierarchical loss function is that it provides practitioners a method of producing bottom-level forecasts that are coherent to any chosen cross-sectional or temporal hierarchy. In addition, removing the need for a post-processing step as required in traditional hierarchical forecasting techniques reduces the computational cost of the prediction phase in the forecasting pipeline. On the public M5 dataset, our sparse hierarchical loss function performs up to 10% (RMSE) better compared to the baseline loss function. We implement our sparse hierarchical loss function within an existing forecasting model at bol, a large European e-commerce platform, resulting in an improved forecasting performance of 2% at the product level. Finally, we found an increase in forecasting performance of about 5-10% when evaluating the forecasting performance across the cross-sectional hierarchies that we defined. These results demonstrate the usefulness of our sparse hierarchical loss applied to a production forecasting system at a major e-commerce platform.

Improving Retrieval-Augmented Large Language Models via Data Importance Learning

Retrieval augmentation enables large language models to take advantage of external knowledge, for example on tasks like question answering and data imputation. However, the performance of such retrieval-augmented models is limited by the data quality of their underlying retrieval corpus. In this paper, we propose an algorithm based on multilinear extension for evaluating the data importance of retrieved data points. There are exponentially many terms in the multilinear extension, and one key contribution of this paper is a polynomial time algorithm that computes exactly, given a retrieval-augmented model with an additive utility function and a validation set, the data importance of data points in the retrieval corpus using the multilinear extension of the model's utility function. We further proposed an even more efficient ({\epsilon}, {\delta})-approximation algorithm. Our experimental results illustrate that we can enhance the performance of large language models by only pruning or reweighting the retrieval corpus, without requiring further training. For some tasks, this even allows a small model (e.g., GPT-JT), augmented with a search engine API, to outperform GPT-3.5 (without retrieval augmentation). Moreover, we show that weights based on multilinear extension can be computed efficiently in practice (e.g., in less than ten minutes for a corpus with 100 million elements).

On the Impact of Outlier Bias on User Clicks

User interaction data is an important source of supervision in counterfactual learning to rank (CLTR). Such data suffers from presentation bias. Much work in unbiased learning to rank (ULTR) focuses on position bias, i.e., items at higher ranks are more likely to be examined and clicked. Inter-item dependencies also influence examination probabilities, with outlier items in a ranking as an important example. Outliers are defined as items that observably deviate from the rest and therefore stand out in the ranking. In this paper, we identify and introduce the bias brought about by outlier items: users tend to click more on outlier items and their close neighbors. To this end, we first conduct a controlled experiment to study the effect of outliers on user clicks. Next, to examine whether the findings from our controlled experiment generalize to naturalistic situations, we explore real-world click logs from an e-commerce platform. We show that, in both scenarios, users tend to click significantly more on outlier items than on non-outlier items in the same rankings. We show that this tendency holds for all positions, i.e., for any specific position, an item receives more interactions when presented as an outlier as opposed to a non-outlier item. We conclude from our analysis that the effect of outliers on clicks is a type of bias that should be addressed in ULTR. We therefore propose an outlier-aware click model that accounts for both outlier and position bias, called outlier-aware position-based model ( OPBM). We estimate click propensities based on OPBM ; through extensive experiments performed on both real-world e-commerce data and semi-synthetic data, we verify the effectiveness of our outlier-aware click model. Our results show the superiority of OPBM against baselines in terms of ranking performance and true relevance estimation.

Data Debugging with Shapley Importance over End-to-End Machine Learning Pipelines

Developing modern machine learning (ML) applications is data-centric, of which one fundamental challenge is to understand the influence of data quality to ML training -- "Which training examples are 'guilty' in making the trained ML model predictions inaccurate or unfair?" Modeling data influence for ML training has attracted intensive interest over the last decade, and one popular framework is to compute the Shapley value of each training example with respect to utilities such as validation accuracy and fairness of the trained ML model. Unfortunately, despite recent intensive interest and research, existing methods only consider a single ML model "in isolation" and do not consider an end-to-end ML pipeline that consists of data transformations, feature extractors, and ML training. We present DataScope (ease.ml/datascope), the first system that efficiently computes Shapley values of training examples over an end-to-end ML pipeline, and illustrate its applications in data debugging for ML training. To this end, we first develop a novel algorithmic framework that computes Shapley value over a specific family of ML pipelines that we call canonical pipelines: a positive relational algebra query followed by a K-nearest-neighbor (KNN) classifier. We show that, for many subfamilies of canonical pipelines, computing Shapley value is in PTIME, contrasting the exponential complexity of computing Shapley value in general. We then put this to practice -- given an sklearn pipeline, we approximate it with a canonical pipeline to use as a proxy. We conduct extensive experiments illustrating different use cases and utilities. Our results show that DataScope is up to four orders of magnitude faster over state-of-the-art Monte Carlo-based methods, while being comparably, and often even more, effective in data debugging.

Efficiently Maintaining Next Basket Recommendations under Additions and Deletions of Baskets and Items

Recommender systems play an important role in helping people find information and make decisions in today's increasingly digitalized societies. However, the wide adoption of such machine learning applications also causes concerns in terms of data privacy. These concerns are addressed by the recent "General Data Protection Regulation" (GDPR) in Europe, which requires companies to delete personal user data upon request when users enforce their "right to be forgotten". Many researchers argue that this deletion obligation does not only apply to the data stored in primary data stores such as relational databases but also requires an update of machine learning models whose training set included the personal data to delete. We explore this direction in the context of a sequential recommendation task called Next Basket Recommendation (NBR), where the goal is to recommend a set of items based on a user's purchase history. We design efficient algorithms for incrementally and decrementally updating a state-of-the-art next basket recommendation model in response to additions and deletions of user baskets and items. Furthermore, we discuss an efficient, data-parallel implementation of our method in the Spark Structured Streaming system. We evaluate our implementation on a variety of real-world datasets, where we investigate the impact of our update techniques on several ranking metrics and measure the time to perform model updates. Our results show that our method provides constant update time efficiency with respect to an additional user basket in the incremental case, and linear efficiency in the decremental case where we delete existing baskets. With modest computational resources, we are able to update models with a latency of around 0.2~milliseconds regardless of the history size in the incremental case, and less than one millisecond in the decremental case.

Understanding and Mitigating the Effect of Outliers in Fair Ranking

Traditional ranking systems are expected to sort items in the order of their relevance and thereby maximize their utility. In fair ranking, utility is complemented with fairness as an optimization goal. Recent work on fair ranking focuses on developing algorithms to optimize for fairness, given position-based exposure. In contrast, we identify the potential of outliers in a ranking to influence exposure and thereby negatively impact fairness. An outlier in a list of items can alter the examination probabilities, which can lead to different distributions of attention, compared to position-based exposure. We formalize outlierness in a ranking, show that outliers are present in realistic datasets, and present the results of an eye-tracking study, showing that users scanning order and the exposure of items are influenced by the presence of outliers. We then introduce OMIT, a method for fair ranking in the presence of outliers. Given an outlier detection method, OMIT improves fair allocation of exposure by suppressing outliers in the top-k ranking. Using an academic search dataset, we show that outlierness optimization leads to a fairer policy that displays fewer outliers in the top-k, while maintaining a reasonable trade-off between fairness and utility.

Parameter Efficient Deep Probabilistic Forecasting

Probabilistic time series forecasting is crucial in many application domains such as retail, ecommerce, finance, or biology. With the increasing availability of large volumes of data, a number of neural architectures have been proposed for this problem. In particular, Transformer-based methods achieve state-of-the-art performance on real-world benchmarks. However, these methods require a large number of parameters to be learned, which imposes high memory requirements on the computational resources for training such models. To address this problem, we introduce a novel Bidirectional Temporal Convolutional Network (BiTCN), which requires an order of magnitude less parameters than a common Transformer-based approach. Our model combines two Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs): the first network encodes future covariates of the time series, whereas the second network encodes past observations and covariates. We jointly estimate the parameters of an output distribution via these two networks. Experiments on four real-world datasets show that our method performs on par with four state-of-the-art probabilistic forecasting methods, including a Transformer-based approach and WaveNet, on two point metrics (sMAPE, NRMSE) as well as on a set of range metrics (quantile loss percentiles) in the majority of cases. Secondly, we demonstrate that our method requires significantly less parameters than Transformer-based methods, which means the model can be trained faster with significantly lower memory requirements, which as a consequence reduces the infrastructure cost for deploying these models.

Probabilistic Gradient Boosting Machines for Large-Scale Probabilistic Regression

Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM) are hugely popular for solving tabular data problems. However, practitioners are not only interested in point predictions, but also in probabilistic predictions in order to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions. Creating such probabilistic predictions is difficult with existing GBM-based solutions: they either require training multiple models or they become too computationally expensive to be useful for large-scale settings. We propose Probabilistic Gradient Boosting Machines (PGBM), a method to create probabilistic predictions with a single ensemble of decision trees in a computationally efficient manner. PGBM approximates the leaf weights in a decision tree as a random variable, and approximates the mean and variance of each sample in a dataset via stochastic tree ensemble update equations. These learned moments allow us to subsequently sample from a specified distribution after training. We empirically demonstrate the advantages of PGBM compared to existing state-of-the-art methods: (i) PGBM enables probabilistic estimates without compromising on point performance in a single model, (ii) PGBM learns probabilistic estimates via a single model only (and without requiring multi-parameter boosting), and thereby offers a speedup of up to several orders of magnitude over existing state-of-the-art methods on large datasets, and (iii) PGBM achieves accurate probabilistic estimates in tasks with complex differentiable loss functions, such as hierarchical time series problems, where we observed up to 10% improvement in point forecasting performance and up to 300% improvement in probabilistic forecasting performance.