Comparing Semi-Parametric Model Learning Algorithms for Dynamic Model Estimation in Robotics

Physical modeling of robotic system behavior is the foundation for controlling many robotic mechanisms to a satisfactory degree. Mechanisms are also typically designed in a way that good model accuracy can be achieved with relatively simple models and model identification strategies. If the modeling accuracy using physically based models is not enough or too complex, model-free methods based on machine learning techniques can help. Of particular interest to us was therefore the question to what degree semi-parametric modeling techniques, meaning combinations of physical models with machine learning, increase the modeling accuracy of inverse dynamics models which are typically used in robot control. To this end, we evaluated semi-parametric Gaussian process regression and a novel model-based neural network architecture, and compared their modeling accuracy to a series of naive semi-parametric, parametric-only and non-parametric-only regression methods. The comparison has been carried out on three test scenarios, one involving a real test-bed and two involving simulated scenarios, with the most complex scenario targeting the modeling a simulated robot's inverse dynamics model. We found that in all but one case, semi-parametric Gaussian process regression yields the most accurate models, also with little tuning required for the training procedure.

Unsupervised Question Answering by Cloze Translation

Obtaining training data for Question Answering (QA) is time-consuming and resource-intensive, and existing QA datasets are only available for limited domains and languages. In this work, we explore to what extent high quality training data is actually required for Extractive QA, and investigate the possibility of unsupervised Extractive QA. We approach this problem by first learning to generate context, question and answer triples in an unsupervised manner, which we then use to synthesize Extractive QA training data automatically. To generate such triples, we first sample random context paragraphs from a large corpus of documents and then random noun phrases or named entity mentions from these paragraphs as answers. Next we convert answers in context to "fill-in-the-blank" cloze questions and finally translate them into natural questions. We propose and compare various unsupervised ways to perform cloze-to-natural question translation, including training an unsupervised NMT model using non-aligned corpora of natural questions and cloze questions as well as a rule-based approach. We find that modern QA models can learn to answer human questions surprisingly well using only synthetic training data. We demonstrate that, without using the SQuAD training data at all, our approach achieves 56.4 F1 on SQuAD v1 (64.5 F1 when the answer is a Named entity mention), outperforming early supervised models.

Neural Variational Inference For Estimating Uncertainty in Knowledge Graph Embeddings

Recent advances in Neural Variational Inference allowed for a renaissance in latent variable models in a variety of domains involving high-dimensional data. While traditional variational methods derive an analytical approximation for the intractable distribution over the latent variables, here we construct an inference network conditioned on the symbolic representation of entities and relation types in the Knowledge Graph, to provide the variational distributions. The new framework results in a highly-scalable method. Under a Bernoulli sampling framework, we provide an alternative justification for commonly used techniques in large-scale stochastic variational inference, which drastically reduce training time at a cost of an additional approximation to the variational lower bound. We introduce two models from this highly scalable probabilistic framework, namely the Latent Information and Latent Fact models, for reasoning over knowledge graph-based representations. Our Latent Information and Latent Fact models improve upon baseline performance under certain conditions. We use the learnt embedding variance to estimate predictive uncertainty during link prediction, and discuss the quality of these learnt uncertainty estimates. Our source code and datasets are publicly available online at https://github.com/alexanderimanicowenrivers/Neural-Variational-Knowledge-Graphs.

Evaluating Rewards for Question Generation Models

Recent approaches to question generation have used modifications to a Seq2Seq architecture inspired by advances in machine translation. Models are trained using teacher forcing to optimise only the one-step-ahead prediction. However, at test time, the model is asked to generate a whole sequence, causing errors to propagate through the generation process (exposure bias). A number of authors have proposed countering this bias by optimising for a reward that is less tightly coupled to the training data, using reinforcement learning. We optimise directly for quality metrics, including a novel approach using a discriminator learned directly from the training data. We confirm that policy gradient methods can be used to decouple training from the ground truth, leading to increases in the metrics used as rewards. We perform a human evaluation, and show that although these metrics have previously been assumed to be good proxies for question quality, they are poorly aligned with human judgement and the model simply learns to exploit the weaknesses of the reward source.

Towards Machine-assisted Meta-Studies: The Hubble Constant

We present an approach for automatic extraction of measured values from the astrophysical literature, using the Hubble constant for our pilot study. Our rules-based model -- a classical technique in natural language processing -- has successfully extracted 298 measurements of the Hubble constant, with uncertainties, from the 208,541 available arXiv astrophysics papers. We have also created an artificial neural network classifier to identify papers which report novel measurements. This classifier is applied to the available arXiv data, and is demonstrated to work well in identifying papers which are reporting new measurements. From the analysis of our results we find that reporting measurements with uncertainties and the correct units is critical information to identify novel measurements in free text. Our results correctly highlight the current tension for measurements of the Hubble constant and recover the $3.5\sigma$ discrepancy -- demonstrating that the tool presented in this paper is useful for meta-studies of astrophysical measurements from a large number of publications, and showing the potential to generalise this technique to other areas.

Application of Clinical Concept Embeddings for Heart Failure Prediction in UK EHR data

Electronic health records (EHR) are increasingly being used for constructing disease risk prediction models. Feature engineering in EHR data however is challenging due to their highly dimensional and heterogeneous nature. Low-dimensional representations of EHR data can potentially mitigate these challenges. In this paper, we use global vectors (GloVe) to learn word embeddings for diagnoses and procedures recorded using 13 million ontology terms across 2.7 million hospitalisations in national UK EHR. We demonstrate the utility of these embeddings by evaluating their performance in identifying patients which are at higher risk of being hospitalised for congestive heart failure. Our findings indicate that embeddings can enable the creation of robust EHR-derived disease risk prediction models and address some the limitations associated with manual clinical feature engineering.

Wronging a Right: Generating Better Errors to Improve Grammatical Error Detection

Grammatical error correction, like other machine learning tasks, greatly benefits from large quantities of high quality training data, which is typically expensive to produce. While writing a program to automatically generate realistic grammatical errors would be difficult, one could learn the distribution of naturallyoccurring errors and attempt to introduce them into other datasets. Initial work on inducing errors in this way using statistical machine translation has shown promise; we investigate cheaply constructing synthetic samples, given a small corpus of human-annotated data, using an off-the-rack attentive sequence-to-sequence model and a straight-forward post-processing procedure. Our approach yields error-filled artificial data that helps a vanilla bi-directional LSTM to outperform the previous state of the art at grammatical error detection, and a previously introduced model to gain further improvements of over 5% $F_{0.5}$ score. When attempting to determine if a given sentence is synthetic, a human annotator at best achieves 39.39 $F_1$ score, indicating that our model generates mostly human-like instances.

Logical Rule Induction and Theory Learning Using Neural Theorem Proving

A hallmark of human cognition is the ability to continually acquire and distill observations of the world into meaningful, predictive theories. In this paper we present a new mechanism for logical theory acquisition which takes a set of observed facts and learns to extract from them a set of logical rules and a small set of core facts which together entail the observations. Our approach is neuro-symbolic in the sense that the rule pred- icates and core facts are given dense vector representations. The rules are applied to the core facts using a soft unification procedure to infer additional facts. After k steps of forward inference, the consequences are compared to the initial observations and the rules and core facts are then encouraged towards representations that more faithfully generate the observations through inference. Our approach is based on a novel neural forward-chaining differentiable rule induction network. The rules are interpretable and learned compositionally from their predicates, which may be invented. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on a variety of ILP rule induction and domain theory learning datasets.

Interpretation of Natural Language Rules in Conversational Machine Reading

Most work in machine reading focuses on question answering problems where the answer is directly expressed in the text to read. However, many real-world question answering problems require the reading of text not because it contains the literal answer, but because it contains a recipe to derive an answer together with the reader's background knowledge. One example is the task of interpreting regulations to answer "Can I...?" or "Do I have to...?" questions such as "I am working in Canada. Do I have to carry on paying UK National Insurance?" after reading a UK government website about this topic. This task requires both the interpretation of rules and the application of background knowledge. It is further complicated due to the fact that, in practice, most questions are underspecified, and a human assistant will regularly have to ask clarification questions such as "How long have you been working abroad?" when the answer cannot be directly derived from the question and text. In this paper, we formalise this task and develop a crowd-sourcing strategy to collect 32k task instances based on real-world rules and crowd-generated questions and scenarios. We analyse the challenges of this task and assess its difficulty by evaluating the performance of rule-based and machine-learning baselines. We observe promising results when no background knowledge is necessary, and substantial room for improvement whenever background knowledge is needed.