Predicting Question-Answering Performance of Large Language Models through Semantic Consistency

Semantic consistency of a language model is broadly defined as the model's ability to produce semantically-equivalent outputs, given semantically-equivalent inputs. We address the task of assessing question-answering (QA) semantic consistency of contemporary large language models (LLMs) by manually creating a benchmark dataset with high-quality paraphrases for factual questions, and release the dataset to the community. We further combine the semantic consistency metric with additional measurements suggested in prior work as correlating with LLM QA accuracy, for building and evaluating a framework for factual QA reference-less performance prediction -- predicting the likelihood of a language model to accurately answer a question. Evaluating the framework on five contemporary LLMs, we demonstrate encouraging, significantly outperforming baselines, results.

Characterizing how 'distributional' NLP corpora distance metrics are

A corpus of vector-embedded text documents has some empirical distribution. Given two corpora, we want to calculate a single metric of distance (e.g., Mauve, Frechet Inception) between them. We describe an abstract quality, called `distributionality', of such metrics. A non-distributional metric tends to use very local measurements, or uses global measurements in a way that does not fully reflect the distributions' true distance. For example, if individual pairwise nearest-neighbor distances are low, it may judge the two corpora to have low distance, even if their two distributions are in fact far from each other. A more distributional metric will, in contrast, better capture the distributions' overall distance. We quantify this quality by constructing a Known-Similarity Corpora set from two paraphrase corpora and calculating the distance between paired corpora from it. The distances' trend shape as set element separation increases should quantify the distributionality of the metric. We propose that Average Hausdorff Distance and energy distance between corpora are representative examples of non-distributional and distributional distance metrics, to which other metrics can be compared, to evaluate how distributional they are.

Data Drift Monitoring for Log Anomaly Detection Pipelines

Logs enable the monitoring of infrastructure status and the performance of associated applications. Logs are also invaluable for diagnosing the root causes of any problems that may arise. Log Anomaly Detection (LAD) pipelines automate the detection of anomalies in logs, providing assistance to site reliability engineers (SREs) in system diagnosis. Log patterns change over time, necessitating updates to the LAD model defining the `normal' log activity profile. In this paper, we introduce a Bayes Factor-based drift detection method that identifies when intervention, retraining, and updating of the LAD model are required with human involvement. We illustrate our method using sequences of log activity, both from unaltered data, and simulated activity with controlled levels of anomaly contamination, based on real collected log data.

Reliable and Interpretable Drift Detection in Streams of Short Texts

Data drift is the change in model input data that is one of the key factors leading to machine learning models performance degradation over time. Monitoring drift helps detecting these issues and preventing their harmful consequences. Meaningful drift interpretation is a fundamental step towards effective re-training of the model. In this study we propose an end-to-end framework for reliable model-agnostic change-point detection and interpretation in large task-oriented dialog systems, proven effective in multiple customer deployments. We evaluate our approach and demonstrate its benefits with a novel variant of intent classification training dataset, simulating customer requests to a dialog system. We make the data publicly available.

Automatic Generation of Attention Rules For Containment of Machine Learning Model Errors

Machine learning (ML) solutions are prevalent in many applications. However, many challenges exist in making these solutions business-grade. For instance, maintaining the error rate of the underlying ML models at an acceptably low level. Typically, the true relationship between feature inputs and the target feature to be predicted is uncertain, and hence statistical in nature. The approach we propose is to separate the observations that are the most likely to be predicted incorrectly into 'attention sets'. These can directly aid model diagnosis and improvement, and be used to decide on alternative courses of action for these problematic observations. We present several algorithms (`strategies') for determining optimal rules to separate these observations. In particular, we prefer strategies that use feature-based slicing because they are human-interpretable, model-agnostic, and require minimal supplementary inputs or knowledge. In addition, we show that these strategies outperform several common baselines, such as selecting observations with prediction confidence below a threshold. To evaluate strategies, we introduce metrics to measure various desired qualities, such as their performance, stability, and generalizability to unseen data; the strategies are evaluated on several publicly-available datasets. We use TOPSIS, a Multiple Criteria Decision Making method, to aggregate these metrics into a single quality score for each strategy, to allow comparison.

Measuring the Measuring Tools: An Automatic Evaluation of Semantic Metrics for Text Corpora

The ability to compare the semantic similarity between text corpora is important in a variety of natural language processing applications. However, standard methods for evaluating these metrics have yet to be established. We propose a set of automatic and interpretable measures for assessing the characteristics of corpus-level semantic similarity metrics, allowing sensible comparison of their behavior. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our evaluation measures in capturing fundamental characteristics by evaluating them on a collection of classical and state-of-the-art metrics. Our measures revealed that recently-developed metrics are becoming better in identifying semantic distributional mismatch while classical metrics are more sensitive to perturbations in the surface text levels.

Experiment Based Crafting and Analyzing of Machine Learning Solutions

The crafting of machine learning (ML) based systems requires statistical control throughout its life cycle. Careful quantification of business requirements and identification of key factors that impact the business requirements reduces the risk of a project failure. The quantification of business requirements results in the definition of random variables representing the system key performance indicators that need to be analyzed through statistical experiments. In addition, available data for training and experiment results impact the design of the system. Once the system is developed, it is tested and continually monitored to ensure it meets its business requirements. This is done through the continued application of statistical experiments to analyze and control the key performance indicators. This book teaches the art of crafting and developing ML based systems. It advocates an "experiment first" approach stressing the need to define statistical experiments from the beginning of the project life cycle. It also discusses in detail how to apply statistical control on the ML based system throughout its lifecycle.

Classifier Data Quality: A Geometric Complexity Based Method for Automated Baseline And Insights Generation

Testing Machine Learning (ML) models and AI-Infused Applications (AIIAs), or systems that contain ML models, is highly challenging. In addition to the challenges of testing classical software, it is acceptable and expected that statistical ML models sometimes output incorrect results. A major challenge is to determine when the level of incorrectness, e.g., model accuracy or F1 score for classifiers, is acceptable and when it is not. In addition to business requirements that should provide a threshold, it is a best practice to require any proposed ML solution to out-perform simple baseline models, such as a decision tree. We have developed complexity measures, which quantify how difficult given observations are to assign to their true class label; these measures can then be used to automatically determine a baseline performance threshold. These measures are superior to the best practice baseline in that, for a linear computation cost, they also quantify each observation' classification complexity in an explainable form, regardless of the classifier model used. Our experiments with both numeric synthetic data and real natural language chatbot data demonstrate that the complexity measures effectively highlight data regions and observations that are likely to be misclassified.

Using sequential drift detection to test the API economy

The API economy refers to the widespread integration of API (advanced programming interface) microservices, where software applications can communicate with each other, as a crucial element in business models and functions. The number of possible ways in which such a system could be used is huge. It is thus desirable to monitor the usage patterns and identify when the system is used in a way that was never used before. This provides a warning to the system analysts and they can ensure uninterrupted operation of the system. In this work we analyze both histograms and call graph of API usage to determine if the usage patterns of the system has shifted. We compare the application of nonparametric statistical and Bayesian sequential analysis to the problem. This is done in a way that overcomes the issue of repeated statistical tests and insures statistical significance of the alerts. The technique was simulated and tested and proven effective in detecting the drift in various scenarios. We also mention modifications to the technique to decrease its memory so that it can respond more quickly when the distribution drift occurs at a delay from when monitoring begins.

Automatically detecting data drift in machine learning classifiers

Classifiers and other statistics-based machine learning (ML) techniques generalize, or learn, based on various statistical properties of the training data. The assumption underlying statistical ML resulting in theoretical or empirical performance guarantees is that the distribution of the training data is representative of the production data distribution. This assumption often breaks; for instance, statistical distributions of the data may change. We term changes that affect ML performance `data drift' or `drift'. Many classification techniques compute a measure of confidence in their results. This measure might not reflect the actual ML performance. A famous example is the Panda picture that is correctly classified as such with a confidence of about 60\%, but when noise is added it is incorrectly classified as a Gibbon with a confidence of above 99\%. However, the work we report on here suggests that a classifier's measure of confidence can be used for the purpose of detecting data drift. We propose an approach based solely on classifier suggested labels and its confidence in them, for alerting on data distribution or feature space changes that are likely to cause data drift. Our approach identities degradation in model performance and does not require labeling of data in production which is often lacking or delayed. Our experiments with three different data sets and classifiers demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach in detecting data drift. This is especially encouraging as the classification itself may or may not be correct and no model input data is required. We further explore the statistical approach of sequential change-point tests to automatically determine the amount of data needed in order to identify drift while controlling the false positive rate (Type-1 error).