Holistic Interpretation of Public Scenes Using Computer Vision and Temporal Graphs to Identify Social Distancing Violations

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented global public health crisis. Given its inherent nature, social distancing measures are proposed as the primary strategies to curb the spread of this pandemic. Therefore, identifying situations where these protocols are violated, has implications for curtailing the spread of the disease and promoting a sustainable lifestyle. This paper proposes a novel computer vision-based system to analyze CCTV footage to provide a threat level assessment of COVID-19 spread. The system strives to holistically capture and interpret the information content of CCTV footage spanning multiple frames to recognize instances of various violations of social distancing protocols, across time and space, as well as identification of group behaviors. This functionality is achieved primarily by utilizing a temporal graph-based structure to represent the information of the CCTV footage and a strategy to holistically interpret the graph and quantify the threat level of the given scene. The individual components are tested and validated on a range of scenarios and the complete system is tested against human expert opinion. The results reflect the dependence of the threat level on people, their physical proximity, interactions, protective clothing, and group dynamics. The system performance has an accuracy of 76%, thus enabling a deployable threat monitoring system in cities, to permit normalcy and sustainability in the society.

A generalized forecasting solution to enable future insights of COVID-19 at sub-national level resolutions

COVID-19 continues to cause a significant impact on public health. To minimize this impact, policy makers undertake containment measures that however, when carried out disproportionately to the actual threat, as a result if errorneous threat assessment, cause undesirable long-term socio-economic complications. In addition, macro-level or national level decision making fails to consider the localized sensitivities in small regions. Hence, the need arises for region-wise threat assessments that provide insights on the behaviour of COVID-19 through time, enabled through accurate forecasts. In this study, a forecasting solution is proposed, to predict daily new cases of COVID-19 in regions small enough where containment measures could be locally implemented, by targeting three main shortcomings that exist in literature; the unreliability of existing data caused by inconsistent testing patterns in smaller regions, weak deploy-ability of forecasting models towards predicting cases in previously unseen regions, and model training biases caused by the imbalanced nature of data in COVID-19 epi-curves. Hence, the contributions of this study are three-fold; an optimized smoothing technique to smoothen less deterministic epi-curves based on epidemiological dynamics of that region, a Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) based forecasting model trained using data from select regions to create a representative and diverse training set that maximizes deploy-ability in regions with lack of historical data, and an adaptive loss function whilst training to mitigate the data imbalances seen in epi-curves. The proposed smoothing technique, the generalized training strategy and the adaptive loss function largely increased the overall accuracy of the forecast, which enables efficient containment measures at a more localized micro-level.