CycloneMAE: A Scalable Multi-Task Learning Model for Global Tropical Cyclone Probabilistic Forecasting

Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank among the most destructive natural hazards, yet their forecasting faces fundamental trade-offs: numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are computationally prohibitive and struggle to leverage historical data, while existing deep learning (DL)-based intelligent models are variable-specific and deterministic, which fail to generalize across different forecasting variables. Here we present CycloneMAE, a scalable multi-task forecasting model that learns transferable TC representations from multi-modal data using a TC structure-aware masked autoencoder. By coupling a discrete probabilistic gridding mechanism with a pre-train/fine-tune paradigm, CycloneMAE simultaneously delivers deterministic forecasts and probability distributions. Evaluated across five global ocean basins, CycloneMAE outperforms leading NWP systems in pressure and wind forecasting up to 120 hours and in track forecasting up to 24 hours. Attribution analysis via integrated gradients reveals physically interpretable learning dynamics: short-term forecasts rely predominantly on the internal core convective structure from satellite imagery, whereas longer-term forecasts progressively shift attention to external environmental factors. Our framework establishes a scalable, probabilistic, and interpretable pathway for operational TC forecasting.

Physics Encoded Spatial and Temporal Generative Adversarial Network for Tropical Cyclone Image Super-resolution

High-resolution satellite imagery is indispensable for tracking the genesis, intensification, and trajectory of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, existing deep learning-based super-resolution (SR) methods often treat satellite image sequences as generic videos, neglecting the underlying atmospheric physical laws governing cloud motion. To address this, we propose a Physics Encoded Spatial and Temporal Generative Adversarial Network (PESTGAN) for TC image super-resolution. Specifically, we design a disentangled generator architecture incorporating a PhyCell module, which approximates the vorticity equation via constrained convolutions and encodes the resulting approximate physical dynamics as implicit latent representations to separate physical dynamics from visual textures. Furthermore, a dual-discriminator framework is introduced, employing a temporal discriminator to enforce motion consistency alongside spatial realism. Experiments on the Digital Typhoon dataset for 4$\times$ upscaling demonstrate that PESTGAN establishes a better performance in structural fidelity and perceptual quality. While maintaining competitive pixel-wise accuracy compared to existing approaches, our method significantly excels in reconstructing meteorologically plausible cloud structures with superior physical fidelity.